Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV L | 0–31 | -17.5dog 13.5 | -0.67 → -0.67 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.88 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 31–0 | +17.5fav 13.5 | +0.22 → +0.22 | -0.67 → -0.53 | +0.75 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA L | 6–31 | -22.5dog 2.5 | -0.56 → -0.53 | -0.08 → +0.07 | -0.60 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 31–6 | +22.5fav 2.5 | -0.08 → -0.12 | -0.56 → -0.55 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| PHI W | 28–22 | +3.5fav 2.5 | +0.28 → +0.38 | -0.09 → -0.02 | +0.39 | 99%raw 99% | 39% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ MIN L | 22–28 | -3.5dog 2.5 | -0.09 → -0.02 | +0.28 → +0.25 | -0.27 | 5%raw 1% | 1% – 61% | 2 / 0 |
| NE W | 31–13 | +11.5fav 6.5 | +0.27 → +0.22 | -0.28 → -0.17 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 21% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ TEN L | 13–31 | -11.5dog 6.5 | -0.28 → -0.25 | +0.27 → +0.24 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 79% | 2 / 0 |
| IND W | 38–24 | +16.5dog 2.5 | +0.42 → +0.50 | +0.09 → +0.12 | +0.38 | 99%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 24–38 | -16.5fav 2.5 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.42 → +0.41 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| NO L | 14–26 | -7.5dog 4.5 | -0.30 → -0.32 | +0.09 → +0.08 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 52% | 4 / 1 |
| @ CHI W | 26–14 | +7.5fav 4.5 | +0.09 → +0.12 | -0.30 → -0.25 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 48% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| LA W | 35–7 | +25.0fav 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.15 | -0.16 → -0.17 | +0.32 | 97%raw 98% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ JAX L | 7–35 | -25.0dog 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.14 | +0.12 → +0.04 | -0.19 | 11%raw 2% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| TB L | 9–24 | -9.0dog 6.0 | -0.41 → -0.41 | -0.12 → -0.21 | -0.20 | 9%raw 2% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 2 |
| @ DET W | 24–9 | +9.0fav 6.0 | -0.12 → -0.14 | -0.41 → -0.45 | +0.31 | 97%raw 98% | 53% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| WAS L | 22–44 | -20.5dog 1.5 | -0.21 → -0.33 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.41 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 44–22 | +20.5fav 1.5 | +0.10 → +0.02 | -0.21 → -0.25 | +0.27 | 95%raw 99% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYG L | 32–33 | +6.5dog 7.5 | +0.14 → +0.22 | +0.06 → +0.05 | +0.17 | 88%raw 75% | 13% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 33–32 | -6.5fav 7.5 | +0.06 → +0.00 | +0.14 → +0.17 | -0.17 | 14%raw 25% | 1% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL L | 10–20 | -8.5dog 1.5 | -0.11 → -0.16 | +0.03 → -0.00 | -0.16 | 14%raw 12% | 0% – 62% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 20–10 | +8.5fav 1.5 | +0.03 → +0.03 | -0.11 → -0.11 | +0.14 | 82%raw 88% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| HOU L | 19–27 | -5.0dog 3.0 | -0.30 → -0.22 | -0.25 → -0.28 | +0.05 | 65%raw 33% | 0% – 50% | 1 / 4 |
| @ SEA W | 27–19 | +5.0fav 3.0 | -0.25 → -0.14 | -0.30 → -0.28 | +0.14 | 82%raw 67% | 50% – 100% | 4 / 1 |
| GB W | 27–23 | -3.0fav 7.0 | +0.12 → +0.06 | -0.05 → -0.06 | +0.12 | 80%raw 91% | 17% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 23–27 | +3.0dog 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.05 | +0.12 → +0.04 | -0.09 | 27%raw 9% | 4% – 83% | 1 / 0 |
| CAR W | 13–6 | +8.5dog 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.15 | -0.26 → -0.18 | +0.04 | 60%raw 93% | 37% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NYJ L | 6–13 | -8.5fav 1.5 | -0.26 → -0.34 | -0.06 → -0.01 | -0.33 | 2%raw 7% | 1% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| PIT L | 31–33 | -7.5fav 5.5 | +0.36 → +0.30 | +0.33 → +0.33 | -0.03 | 42%raw 62% | 12% – 76% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 33–31 | +7.5dog 5.5 | +0.33 → +0.33 | +0.36 → +0.39 | -0.06 | 33%raw 38% | 24% – 88% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | MIN | 26 | +0.845 | +0.727 | +0.118 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.6 | +0.53 | +17.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 36 | +0.516 | +0.537 | -0.022 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.22 | +6.1 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | LAC | 35 | +0.494 | +0.410 | +0.084 | +17.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.27 | +5.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CIN | 34 | +0.337 | +0.392 | -0.054 | +11.5 | 2 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +4.9 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | DEN | 38 | +0.326 | +0.220 | +0.106 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 4 | -4.4 | +0.13 | -17.0 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | PIT | 49 | +0.315 | +0.309 | +0.006 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.63 | +1.6 |
| Drake Maye | NE | TEN | 27 | +0.303 | +0.361 | -0.058 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.36 | +24.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | JAX | 33 | +0.289 | +0.266 | +0.023 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +4.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 31 | +0.154 | +0.232 | -0.078 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.25 | +0.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | ARI | 30 | +0.134 | +0.202 | -0.068 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.32 | -3.0 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | NO | 27 | +0.106 | +0.080 | +0.026 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.08 | -3.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | IND | 58 | +0.076 | +0.100 | -0.025 | +4.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.12 | +2.8 |
| Mac Jones | SF | ATL | 27 | +0.075 | +0.073 | +0.002 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.09 | +1.2 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | PHI | 44 | +0.036 | -0.052 | +0.087 | +1.6 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.22 | -0.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | GB | 42 | +0.031 | +0.025 | +0.006 | +1.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 6 | -12.4 | -0.09 | +4.7 |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | MIA | 20 | -0.004 | +0.042 | -0.046 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.09 | +0.2 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | HOU | 33 | -0.065 | -0.170 | +0.106 | -2.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.0 | 2 | -7.5 | -0.05 | -2.3 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | NYG | 53 | -0.088 | -0.037 | -0.050 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.34 | -10.9 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NYJ | 26 | -0.110 | +0.004 | -0.114 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.02 | -3.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | SEA | 53 | -0.187 | -0.255 | +0.068 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.19 | -14.2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | SF | 40 | -0.213 | -0.168 | -0.044 | -8.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 2 | -6.2 | -0.10 | -5.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LA | 55 | -0.252 | -0.253 | +0.001 | -13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -9.0 | -0.26 | -12.5 |
| Quinn Ewers | MIA | CLE | 10 | -0.260 | -0.304 | +0.044 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.00 | -5.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | CAR | 25 | -0.264 | -0.171 | -0.093 | -6.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 3 | -4.0 | -0.28 | -8.8 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | NE | 39 | -0.276 | -0.301 | +0.025 | -10.8 | 1 / 1 | -13.0 | 5 | -16.7 | -0.02 | +6.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | TB | 33 | -0.310 | -0.262 | -0.049 | -10.2 | 1 / 1 | -7.7 | 4 | -9.7 | -0.02 | -1.3 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | CHI | 36 | -0.349 | -0.340 | -0.009 | -12.6 | 3 / 1 | -16.9 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.41 | +0.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | DAL | 24 | -0.372 | -0.245 | -0.127 | -8.9 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 2 | -7.3 | +0.02 | -9.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | DET | 55 | -0.443 | -0.455 | +0.013 | -24.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -4.4 | -0.38 | -9.4 |
| Geno Smith | LV | KC | 17 | -0.574 | -0.571 | -0.003 | -9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.07 | -8.0 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | CAR | 15 | -0.709 | -0.616 | -0.093 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.23 | -15.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CLE | 25 | -0.895 | -0.940 | +0.044 | -22.4 | 3 / 0 | -17.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.24 | -12.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | DAL | 12 | -1.300 | -1.173 | -0.127 | -15.6 | 1 / 0 | -9.1 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.05 | -16.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.