Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF L | 13–30 | -25.5fav 8.5 | -0.06 → -0.10 | +0.31 → +0.34 | -0.44 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 50% | 3 / 2 |
| @ MIA W | 30–13 | +25.5dog 8.5 | +0.31 → +0.33 | -0.06 → -0.19 | +0.52 | 100%raw 99% | 50% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| NO W | 17–7 | +15.5dog 5.5 | +0.16 → +0.09 | -0.42 → -0.38 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CAR L | 7–17 | -15.5fav 5.5 | -0.42 → -0.41 | +0.16 → +0.23 | -0.63 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 74% | 2 / 0 |
| JAX L | 29–36 | -8.5fav 1.5 | -0.22 → -0.12 | +0.09 → +0.12 | -0.24 | 7%raw 1% | 26% – 98% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU W | 36–29 | +8.5dog 1.5 | +0.09 → +0.11 | -0.22 → -0.24 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 2% – 74% | 1 / 2 |
| PIT L | 10–25 | -12.0dog 3.0 | -0.38 → -0.32 | -0.08 → -0.06 | -0.27 | 5%raw 2% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 25–10 | +12.0fav 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.09 | -0.38 → -0.37 | +0.28 | 96%raw 98% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LA W | 42–26 | +10.5fav 5.5 | +0.41 → +0.38 | +0.14 → +0.11 | +0.27 | 95%raw 97% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SF L | 26–42 | -10.5dog 5.5 | +0.14 → +0.17 | +0.41 → +0.34 | -0.17 | 13%raw 3% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| ARI L | 22–44 | -15.0dog 7.0 | -0.23 → -0.15 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.20 | 9%raw 2% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 3 |
| @ SEA W | 44–22 | +15.0fav 7.0 | +0.07 → +0.02 | -0.23 → -0.24 | +0.26 | 95%raw 98% | 53% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| ATL L | 25–31 | +0.5dog 6.5 | -0.09 → -0.09 | +0.17 → +0.15 | -0.23 | 7%raw 3% | 8% – 76% | 1 / 2 |
| @ IND W | 31–25 | -0.5fav 6.5 | +0.17 → +0.17 | -0.09 → -0.08 | +0.24 | 94%raw 97% | 24% – 92% | 2 / 1 |
| DET W | 44–22 | +13.5fav 8.5 | +0.48 → +0.41 | +0.22 → +0.19 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ WAS L | 22–44 | -13.5dog 8.5 | +0.22 → +0.24 | +0.48 → +0.42 | -0.17 | 12%raw 3% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| PHI W | 10–7 | +4.5dog 1.5 | -0.08 → -0.07 | -0.17 → -0.26 | +0.19 | 89%raw 78% | 37% – 95% | 1 / 2 |
| @ GB L | 7–10 | -4.5fav 1.5 | -0.17 → -0.11 | -0.08 → -0.12 | +0.02 | 55%raw 22% | 5% – 63% | 2 / 1 |
| BAL W | 27–19 | +3.5fav 4.5 | -0.02 → +0.06 | -0.15 → -0.08 | +0.14 | 83%raw 85% | 19% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ MIN L | 19–27 | -3.5dog 4.5 | -0.15 → -0.15 | -0.02 → -0.10 | -0.06 | 34%raw 15% | 0% – 81% | 2 / 0 |
| NE W | 28–23 | +7.5dog 2.5 | +0.18 → +0.17 | +0.06 → +0.03 | +0.14 | 82%raw 83% | 22% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ TB L | 23–28 | -7.5fav 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.10 | +0.18 → +0.15 | -0.05 | 37%raw 17% | 1% – 78% | 0 / 1 |
| CLE L | 20–27 | -8.5fav 1.5 | -0.08 → -0.17 | -0.29 → -0.22 | +0.05 | 65%raw 95% | 1% – 61% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 27–20 | +8.5dog 1.5 | -0.29 → -0.26 | -0.08 → +0.07 | -0.33 | 3%raw 5% | 39% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG L | 20–24 | +0.5dog 4.5 | +0.00 → -0.01 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.01 | 46%raw 43% | 2% – 95% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 24–20 | -0.5fav 4.5 | +0.03 → -0.03 | +0.00 → +0.03 | -0.06 | 34%raw 57% | 5% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| LV L | 7–10 | +6.5dog 9.5 | -0.39 → -0.32 | -0.25 → -0.27 | -0.05 | 36%raw 13% | 2% – 75% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DEN W | 10–7 | -6.5fav 9.5 | -0.25 → -0.27 | -0.39 → -0.24 | -0.03 | 43%raw 87% | 25% – 98% | 2 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | WAS | 33 | +0.700 | +0.768 | -0.068 | +23.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.46 | +14.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 37 | +0.585 | +0.612 | -0.026 | +21.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.36 | +10.6 |
| Mac Jones | SF | LA | 40 | +0.475 | +0.456 | +0.018 | +19.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +15.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | DET | 25 | +0.472 | +0.437 | +0.035 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.00 | +14.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 21 | +0.467 | +0.429 | +0.038 | +9.8 | 2 / 0 | -2.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | GB | 26 | +0.339 | +0.327 | +0.012 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -0.8 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | CAR | 29 | +0.330 | +0.406 | -0.076 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.5 | +0.43 | +10.4 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | ARI | 13 | +0.249 | +0.315 | -0.066 | +3.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 1 | -5.1 | +0.20 | +18.9 |
| Drake Maye | NE | TB | 32 | +0.157 | +0.196 | -0.039 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.31 | -5.9 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | CHI | 31 | +0.109 | +0.111 | -0.002 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.09 | +8.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIN | 31 | +0.054 | -0.045 | +0.099 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.19 | -13.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NE | 45 | +0.054 | +0.022 | +0.032 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.37 | -2.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 44 | +0.052 | +0.095 | -0.044 | +2.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 3 | -1.8 | -0.10 | +7.7 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | JAX | 49 | +0.034 | +0.015 | +0.019 | +1.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.00 | -3.3 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | ATL | 34 | -0.063 | -0.062 | -0.000 | -2.1 | 1 / 1 | -5.8 | 7 | -13.5 | -0.14 | +3.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | PHI | 38 | -0.130 | -0.212 | +0.082 | -5.0 | 0 / 1 | -3.5 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.41 | -6.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 29 | -0.146 | -0.251 | +0.106 | -4.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.1 | 5 | -12.7 | -0.44 | -14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | SEA | 50 | -0.169 | -0.237 | +0.068 | -8.5 | 0 / 2 | -15.9 | 5 | -21.0 | -0.19 | -9.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | PIT | 38 | -0.180 | -0.175 | -0.004 | -6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.7 | -0.17 | -14.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | NYG | 36 | -0.217 | -0.168 | -0.049 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -8.2 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | BAL | 44 | -0.225 | -0.225 | +0.000 | -9.9 | 2 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.25 | -11.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LV | 29 | -0.270 | -0.226 | -0.044 | -7.8 | 2 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.26 | -7.2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | IND | 32 | -0.286 | -0.252 | -0.034 | -9.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 3 | -8.5 | -0.26 | -16.3 |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | NYJ | 38 | -0.308 | -0.194 | -0.114 | -11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -9.9 | -0.29 | -16.4 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NO | 27 | -0.412 | -0.426 | +0.014 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.31 | +2.8 |
| Geno Smith | LV | DEN | 32 | -0.421 | -0.510 | +0.089 | -13.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 6 | -10.9 | -0.52 | -6.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | LAC | 34 | -0.471 | -0.532 | +0.061 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.54 | -10.8 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | CLE | 14 | -0.676 | -0.727 | +0.050 | -9.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.12 | -13.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.