Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN L | 3–28 | -17.5dog 7.5 | -0.26 → -0.19 | +0.22 → +0.22 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 28–3 | +17.5fav 7.5 | +0.22 → +0.16 | -0.26 → -0.27 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL L | 20–37 | -19.5fav 2.5 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.23 → +0.22 | -0.26 | 5%raw 2% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 37–20 | +19.5dog 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.24 | -0.06 → -0.14 | +0.38 | 99%raw 98% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| TEN L | 0–26 | -18.5dog 7.5 | -0.34 → -0.24 | +0.17 → +0.20 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 26–0 | +18.5fav 7.5 | +0.17 → +0.11 | -0.34 → -0.23 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| CAR L | 13–42 | -23.5dog 5.5 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.39 → +0.37 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 72% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 42–13 | +23.5fav 5.5 | +0.39 → +0.32 | -0.02 → +0.02 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| NO L | 19–31 | +3.5dog 15.5 | -0.08 → -0.07 | +0.20 → +0.08 | -0.15 | 15%raw 2% | 0% – 51% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 31–19 | -3.5fav 15.5 | +0.20 → +0.23 | -0.08 → -0.02 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 49% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| IND L | 20–27 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.07 | +0.08 → +0.00 | -0.08 | 29%raw 9% | 1% – 83% | 3 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 27–20 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.08 → +0.09 | -0.09 → -0.12 | +0.21 | 91%raw 91% | 17% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| MIN L | 21–24 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.20 | 10%raw 9% | 1% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 24–21 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.20 → +0.29 | +0.03 → +0.10 | +0.18 | 89%raw 91% | 38% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| JAX W | 26–21 | +8.5dog 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.05 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.18 | 88%raw 92% | 32% – 98% | 0 / 4 |
| @ SF L | 21–26 | -8.5fav 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.07 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.16 | 14%raw 8% | 2% – 68% | 4 / 0 |
| CLE L | 10–34 | -14.0dog 10.0 | -0.36 → -0.36 | -0.13 → -0.21 | -0.14 | 17%raw 4% | 0% – 68% | 3 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 34–10 | +14.0fav 10.0 | -0.13 → -0.09 | -0.36 → -0.22 | +0.14 | 82%raw 96% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| WAS L | 27–34 | -4.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.11 | +0.27 → +0.29 | -0.18 | 12%raw 11% | 1% – 47% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 34–27 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.27 → +0.19 | +0.11 → +0.08 | +0.11 | 78%raw 89% | 53% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| GB T | 40–40 | -7.0fav 7.0 | +0.34 → +0.24 | +0.36 → +0.35 | -0.11 | 23%raw 44% | 1% – 92% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DAL T | 40–40 | +7.0dog 7.0 | +0.36 → +0.38 | +0.34 → +0.27 | +0.10 | 76%raw 56% | 8% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| SEA W | 23–20 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.06 → -0.00 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.09 | 73%raw 87% | 34% – 96% | 0 / 3 |
| @ ARI L | 20–23 | -1.5dog 1.5 | -0.08 → +0.00 | +0.06 → +0.03 | -0.03 | 41%raw 13% | 4% – 66% | 3 / 0 |
| PHI W | 31–25 | +2.5fav 3.5 | -0.07 → -0.09 | -0.15 → -0.18 | +0.09 | 73%raw 73% | 42% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 25–31 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.15 → -0.08 | -0.07 → -0.12 | +0.04 | 61%raw 27% | 1% – 58% | 2 / 0 |
| LAC L | 18–21 | -9.0fav 6.0 | -0.19 → -0.25 | -0.16 → -0.14 | -0.11 | 23%raw 41% | 5% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 21–18 | +9.0dog 6.0 | -0.16 → -0.10 | -0.19 → -0.17 | +0.06 | 67%raw 59% | 55% – 95% | 0 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 21–27 | -3.5dog 2.5 | +0.14 → +0.11 | +0.13 → +0.16 | -0.05 | 37%raw 55% | 1% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 27–21 | +3.5fav 2.5 | +0.13 → +0.05 | +0.14 → +0.23 | -0.18 | 12%raw 45% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| CHI W | 25–24 | +2.5dog 1.5 | -0.11 → -0.12 | -0.20 → -0.04 | -0.08 | 30%raw 77% | 16% – 88% | 1 / 4 |
| @ LV L | 24–25 | -2.5fav 1.5 | -0.20 → -0.21 | -0.11 → -0.13 | -0.08 | 29%raw 23% | 12% – 84% | 4 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | CAR | 18 | +1.008 | +1.071 | -0.063 | +18.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.08 | +20.4 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | WAS | 27 | +0.610 | +0.677 | -0.068 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.39 | +11.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | GB | 41 | +0.566 | +0.547 | +0.019 | +23.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +1.44 | +13.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BAL | 38 | +0.441 | +0.426 | +0.015 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.27 | +5.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DAL | 44 | +0.385 | +0.488 | -0.103 | +16.9 | 0 / 1 | -2.8 | 1 | -2.8 | +1.21 | +15.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | IND | 43 | +0.317 | +0.336 | -0.020 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.83 | +5.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 25 | +0.315 | +0.415 | -0.100 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | -1.7 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | ARI | 29 | +0.277 | +0.342 | -0.065 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.45 | +6.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | MIN | 24 | +0.264 | +0.158 | +0.106 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.19 | +9.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | CIN | 42 | +0.261 | +0.316 | -0.055 | +11.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -2.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NO | 25 | +0.228 | +0.197 | +0.032 | +5.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.3 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.23 | +9.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | TEN | 31 | +0.202 | +0.265 | -0.063 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.07 | +8.1 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | MIA | 29 | +0.156 | +0.193 | -0.038 | +4.5 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.8 | -0.06 | +5.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | SF | 31 | +0.135 | +0.173 | -0.037 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +0.9 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | LA | 35 | +0.129 | +0.118 | +0.010 | +4.5 | 2 / 0 | -6.4 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.09 | +7.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | JAX | 40 | +0.104 | +0.084 | +0.020 | +4.2 | 2 / 1 | -12.8 | 1 | -4.4 | -0.16 | -8.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | ATL | 29 | +0.070 | +0.066 | +0.004 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.05 | +3.1 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | PIT | 52 | +0.064 | +0.063 | +0.001 | +3.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 6 | -8.7 | -0.24 | +5.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CLE | 27 | +0.024 | -0.038 | +0.062 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -0.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 47 | +0.001 | -0.070 | +0.072 | +0.1 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 6 | -7.9 | +0.08 | -5.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | PHI | 41 | -0.045 | -0.129 | +0.084 | -1.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.32 | -10.2 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | LV | 39 | -0.065 | -0.029 | -0.036 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.13 | -11.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TB | 26 | -0.090 | -0.050 | -0.041 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.04 | -5.0 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | LAC | 25 | -0.111 | -0.181 | +0.070 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.08 | -0.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | KC | 23 | -0.220 | -0.227 | +0.007 | -5.1 | 1 / 1 | -8.5 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.11 | +6.7 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NE | 31 | -0.256 | -0.288 | +0.033 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.00 | -0.4 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | BUF | 30 | -0.257 | -0.280 | +0.023 | -7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.17 | +7.1 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | DEN | 28 | -0.278 | -0.370 | +0.092 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.10 | -4.9 |
| Cooper Rush | BAL | KC | 13 | -0.443 | -0.450 | +0.007 | -5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +7.1 |
| Geno Smith | LV | CHI | 20 | -0.490 | -0.480 | -0.010 | -9.8 | 3 / 0 | -16.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -3.6 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | HOU | 27 | -0.509 | -0.609 | +0.100 | -13.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.17 | -24.5 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | DET | 37 | -0.529 | -0.539 | +0.010 | -19.6 | 2 / 1 | -15.9 | 3 | -7.1 | -0.19 | -15.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NYG | 43 | -0.551 | -0.491 | -0.060 | -23.7 | 2 / 0 | -15.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.76 | -5.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.