Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV L | 0–31 | -18.5dog 12.5 | -0.41 → -0.35 | +0.25 → +0.21 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 31–0 | +18.5fav 12.5 | +0.25 → +0.24 | -0.41 → -0.26 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| BAL W | 24–0 | +21.5fav 2.5 | +0.21 → +0.14 | -0.31 → -0.33 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CIN L | 0–24 | -21.5dog 2.5 | -0.31 → -0.32 | +0.21 → +0.14 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 2 / 1 |
| CLE L | 3–31 | -20.5dog 7.5 | -0.47 → -0.49 | +0.05 → +0.03 | -0.52 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 31–3 | +20.5fav 7.5 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.47 → -0.33 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| NYJ L | 20–48 | -14.5dog 13.5 | -0.16 → -0.14 | +0.33 → +0.33 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 48–20 | +14.5fav 13.5 | +0.33 → +0.25 | -0.16 → -0.08 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| GB L | 26–34 | -9.5fav 1.5 | +0.02 → +0.10 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.07 | 31%raw 10% | 0% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 34–26 | +9.5dog 1.5 | +0.18 → +0.20 | +0.02 → -0.06 | +0.25 | 94%raw 90% | 19% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| ATL W | 29–28 | +7.0dog 6.0 | +0.25 → +0.25 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.24 | 93%raw 95% | 5% – 67% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TB L | 28–29 | -7.0fav 6.0 | +0.04 → +0.03 | +0.25 → +0.27 | -0.24 | 7%raw 5% | 33% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI L | 20–40 | -9.5dog 10.5 | +0.03 → +0.14 | +0.25 → +0.29 | -0.15 | 16%raw 5% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 40–20 | +9.5fav 10.5 | +0.25 → +0.20 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.18 | 88%raw 95% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA L | 15–28 | -10.0dog 3.0 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.22 → +0.25 | -0.26 | 5%raw 4% | 0% – 53% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 28–15 | +10.0fav 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.19 | -0.00 → +0.02 | +0.17 | 87%raw 96% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| DET L | 34–41 | -1.5dog 5.5 | +0.16 → +0.18 | +0.20 → +0.12 | +0.06 | 66%raw 36% | 1% – 76% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 41–34 | +1.5fav 5.5 | +0.20 → +0.22 | +0.16 → +0.08 | +0.14 | 83%raw 64% | 24% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| BUF W | 35–31 | +1.5fav 2.5 | +0.26 → +0.31 | +0.24 → +0.21 | +0.09 | 74%raw 56% | 6% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 31–35 | -1.5dog 2.5 | +0.24 → +0.26 | +0.26 → +0.15 | +0.12 | 78%raw 44% | 1% – 94% | 1 / 0 |
| LAC W | 16–13 | +8.5dog 5.5 | -0.05 → -0.03 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.10 | 76%raw 70% | 18% – 95% | 1 / 2 |
| @ KC L | 13–16 | -8.5fav 5.5 | -0.11 → -0.04 | -0.05 → -0.02 | -0.03 | 42%raw 30% | 5% – 82% | 2 / 1 |
| IND L | 16–18 | +11.5dog 13.5 | -0.10 → -0.02 | -0.04 → -0.07 | +0.05 | 64%raw 32% | 6% – 78% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 18–16 | -11.5fav 13.5 | -0.04 → -0.04 | -0.10 → -0.13 | +0.08 | 72%raw 68% | 22% – 94% | 0 / 1 |
| MIN W | 34–26 | +13.5dog 5.5 | +0.23 → +0.12 | +0.11 → +0.09 | +0.03 | 58%raw 83% | 21% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DAL L | 26–34 | -13.5fav 5.5 | +0.11 → +0.20 | +0.23 → +0.31 | -0.11 | 23%raw 17% | 0% – 79% | 0 / 1 |
| TEN L | 24–37 | -0.5dog 12.5 | +0.23 → +0.19 | +0.25 → +0.22 | -0.02 | 44%raw 45% | 0% – 43% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 37–24 | +0.5fav 12.5 | +0.25 → +0.20 | +0.23 → +0.36 | -0.16 | 14%raw 55% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| WAS W | 29–21 | +10.5dog 2.5 | +0.00 → -0.05 | +0.02 → +0.05 | -0.10 | 24%raw 44% | 39% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 21–29 | -10.5fav 2.5 | +0.02 → -0.06 | +0.00 → -0.03 | -0.03 | 42%raw 56% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 2 |
| CAR L | 17–20 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.14 | +0.11 → +0.17 | -0.03 | 42%raw 51% | 9% – 90% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 20–17 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.03 | +0.11 → +0.16 | -0.13 | 19%raw 49% | 10% – 91% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LV | 16 | +0.786 | +0.797 | -0.011 | +12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.11 | +14.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NYJ | 32 | +0.650 | +0.743 | -0.092 | +20.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +12.2 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | GB | 34 | +0.624 | +0.606 | +0.019 | +21.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.79 | +8.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | TEN | 32 | +0.502 | +0.558 | -0.055 | +16.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.1 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.38 | +20.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | ARI | 29 | +0.452 | +0.515 | -0.063 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.27 | +11.9 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | DAL | 24 | +0.398 | +0.501 | -0.103 | +9.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +1.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 30 | +0.353 | +0.315 | +0.038 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.33 | +10.4 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NO | 25 | +0.341 | +0.308 | +0.033 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.16 | +7.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | MIA | 30 | +0.333 | +0.371 | -0.037 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.16 | +10.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | TB | 46 | +0.333 | +0.366 | -0.033 | +15.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.60 | +7.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | LA | 42 | +0.320 | +0.305 | +0.015 | +13.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.35 | -0.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DET | 40 | +0.234 | +0.206 | +0.028 | +9.4 | 1 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.21 | -0.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | CLE | 31 | +0.172 | +0.106 | +0.066 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | +0.05 | +1.4 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | CAR | 36 | +0.163 | +0.242 | -0.079 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.6 | +0.29 | +4.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | MIN | 40 | +0.124 | +0.024 | +0.100 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.03 | -4.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ATL | 40 | +0.113 | +0.110 | +0.002 | +4.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 5 | -6.0 | +0.17 | -1.1 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | IND | 35 | +0.107 | +0.132 | -0.025 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.36 | +0.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DEN | 43 | +0.090 | -0.012 | +0.103 | +3.9 | 2 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.16 | +6.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | PIT | 34 | +0.077 | +0.078 | -0.000 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.09 | +15.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | HOU | 43 | +0.069 | -0.042 | +0.110 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.00 | +1.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 33 | +0.026 | +0.013 | +0.012 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -5.5 | +0.00 | +5.9 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | NYG | 21 | +0.024 | +0.072 | -0.048 | +0.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 2 | -8.5 | +0.13 | +4.2 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | SF | 29 | +0.021 | +0.060 | -0.039 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -2.7 |
| Philip Rivers | IND | SEA | 28 | -0.020 | -0.090 | +0.071 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.17 | -0.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 33 | -0.036 | -0.108 | +0.072 | -1.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 5 | -7.2 | -0.05 | -5.3 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | WAS | 37 | -0.047 | +0.035 | -0.082 | -1.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.18 | -3.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 16 | -0.058 | +0.004 | -0.062 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -6.2 | +0.11 | +6.8 |
| Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 26 | -0.103 | -0.131 | +0.028 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.31 | -0.5 |
| Brady Cook | NYJ | JAX | 36 | -0.204 | -0.216 | +0.012 | -7.3 | 3 / 0 | -11.6 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.02 | +3.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 42 | -0.331 | -0.327 | -0.004 | -13.9 | 2 / 0 | -15.8 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.27 | +2.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | LV | PHI | 29 | -0.503 | -0.577 | +0.073 | -14.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 4 | -3.7 | -0.21 | -10.1 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | CHI | 40 | -0.588 | -0.574 | -0.014 | -23.5 | 3 / 0 | -15.2 | 5 | -9.9 | -0.18 | -4.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.