Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU W | 30–6 | +21.0fav 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.08 | -0.54 → -0.54 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 32% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 6–30 | -21.0dog 3.0 | -0.54 → -0.45 | +0.09 → +0.12 | -0.57 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 68% | 2 / 3 |
| LAC L | 3–16 | -9.5dog 3.5 | -0.25 → -0.22 | -0.02 → -0.05 | -0.17 | 13%raw 4% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NE W | 16–3 | +9.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → +0.05 | -0.25 → -0.23 | +0.28 | 96%raw 96% | 37% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| SF W | 23–19 | +10.0dog 6.0 | +0.10 → +0.18 | -0.04 → -0.08 | +0.26 | 95%raw 88% | 21% – 96% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 19–23 | -10.0fav 6.0 | -0.04 → -0.09 | +0.10 → +0.07 | -0.16 | 15%raw 12% | 4% – 79% | 0 / 2 |
| BUF W | 27–24 | +4.5dog 1.5 | +0.24 → +0.27 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.25 | 94%raw 95% | 25% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 24–27 | -4.5fav 1.5 | +0.03 → +0.04 | +0.24 → +0.13 | -0.09 | 27%raw 5% | 3% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| GB L | 27–31 | -6.5fav 2.5 | +0.22 → +0.21 | +0.09 → +0.08 | +0.14 | 82%raw 85% | 15% – 96% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CHI W | 31–27 | +6.5dog 2.5 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.22 → +0.14 | -0.04 | 39%raw 15% | 4% – 85% | 2 / 0 |
| LA W | 34–31 | -7.0fav 10.0 | +0.11 → +0.04 | -0.07 → -0.03 | +0.07 | 68%raw 93% | 25% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 31–34 | +7.0dog 10.0 | -0.07 → -0.05 | +0.11 → +0.04 | -0.09 | 26%raw 7% | 3% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 47 | +0.390 | +0.383 | +0.007 | +18.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.37 | +2.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | JAX | 36 | +0.295 | +0.272 | +0.023 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.49 | +11.3 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | GB | 50 | +0.253 | +0.242 | +0.010 | +12.6 | 2 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.50 | -6.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | PHI | 32 | +0.239 | +0.148 | +0.091 | +7.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 1 | -0.3 | +0.18 | -2.9 |
| Drake Maye | NE | LAC | 34 | +0.069 | -0.005 | +0.075 | +2.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.4 | 5 | -12.7 | -0.03 | -3.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BUF | 31 | +0.052 | +0.024 | +0.028 | +1.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.15 | -5.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CAR | 43 | +0.034 | +0.116 | -0.082 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.47 | -4.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | PIT | 35 | +0.012 | +0.012 | -0.001 | +0.4 | 1 / 2 | -14.6 | 3 | -11.2 | -0.23 | -0.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | SF | 36 | -0.133 | -0.090 | -0.042 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.48 | -7.9 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | LA | 42 | -0.186 | -0.192 | +0.006 | -7.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.22 | -5.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NE | 37 | -0.333 | -0.359 | +0.026 | -12.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 6 | -10.8 | -0.27 | -2.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | HOU | 37 | -0.623 | -0.719 | +0.096 | -23.1 | 1 / 1 | -14.2 | 4 | -12.0 | -0.64 | -7.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.