Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB L | 7–34 | -20.0dog 7.0 | -0.43 → -0.42 | +0.10 → +0.02 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 34–7 | +20.0fav 7.0 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.43 → -0.47 | +0.56 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| MIN L | 6–23 | -10.5dog 6.5 | -0.43 → -0.44 | +0.02 → -0.06 | -0.38 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 53% | 2 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 23–6 | +10.5fav 6.5 | +0.02 → +0.11 | -0.43 → -0.37 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| BUF L | 19–23 | -9.5fav 5.5 | -0.16 → -0.06 | -0.06 → -0.03 | -0.02 | 44%raw 20% | 4% – 71% | 3 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 23–19 | +9.5dog 5.5 | -0.06 → -0.06 | -0.16 → -0.29 | +0.24 | 93%raw 80% | 29% – 96% | 0 / 3 |
| NE W | 26–20 | -1.5fav 7.5 | +0.00 → -0.07 | -0.19 → -0.21 | +0.14 | 82%raw 94% | 19% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CIN L | 20–26 | +1.5dog 7.5 | -0.19 → -0.16 | +0.00 → -0.03 | -0.13 | 20%raw 6% | 2% – 81% | 1 / 1 |
| SEA W | 30–24 | -6.5fav 12.5 | +0.29 → +0.24 | -0.01 → +0.11 | +0.12 | 80%raw 98% | 32% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 24–30 | +6.5dog 12.5 | -0.01 → +0.08 | +0.29 → +0.28 | -0.20 | 10%raw 2% | 1% – 68% | 0 / 0 |
| ATL W | 24–10 | +15.5dog 1.5 | -0.13 → -0.11 | -0.27 → -0.22 | +0.11 | 78%raw 87% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NO L | 10–24 | -15.5fav 1.5 | -0.27 → -0.29 | -0.13 → -0.13 | -0.16 | 14%raw 13% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 1 |
| JAX W | 27–24 | +0.5fav 2.5 | -0.19 → -0.25 | -0.15 → -0.16 | -0.09 | 26%raw 36% | 23% – 94% | 4 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 24–27 | -0.5dog 2.5 | -0.15 → -0.13 | -0.19 → -0.20 | +0.07 | 69%raw 64% | 6% – 77% | 0 / 4 |
| NYG L | 27–34 | +7.0dog 14.0 | +0.12 → +0.14 | +0.15 → +0.07 | +0.07 | 68%raw 39% | 17% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 34–27 | -7.0fav 14.0 | +0.15 → +0.10 | +0.12 → +0.15 | -0.05 | 36%raw 61% | 11% – 83% | 1 / 1 |
| CAR L | 9–20 | -3.5dog 7.5 | -0.18 → -0.24 | -0.00 → -0.04 | -0.19 | 10%raw 8% | 0% – 49% | 2 / 3 |
| @ SF W | 20–9 | +3.5fav 7.5 | -0.00 → -0.08 | -0.18 → -0.14 | +0.06 | 66%raw 92% | 51% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| IND L | 20–23 | +0.5dog 3.5 | -0.00 → +0.01 | +0.00 → -0.02 | +0.03 | 59%raw 48% | 3% – 91% | 0 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 23–20 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.00 → +0.00 | -0.00 → -0.03 | +0.03 | 59%raw 52% | 9% – 97% | 2 / 0 |
| PHI L | 21–24 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.06 → -0.05 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.00 | 49%raw 76% | 19% – 94% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DAL W | 24–21 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → +0.05 | +0.06 → +0.02 | +0.03 | 58%raw 24% | 6% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
| CLE W | 24–10 | +17.0dog 3.0 | -0.22 → -0.24 | -0.38 → -0.24 | -0.00 | 50%raw 90% | 39% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 10–24 | -17.0fav 3.0 | -0.38 → -0.35 | -0.22 → -0.07 | -0.28 | 4%raw 10% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 2 |
| PIT L | 28–31 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.00 → -0.01 | +0.01 → -0.01 | -0.00 | 49%raw 46% | 3% – 78% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CHI W | 31–28 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.00 | +0.00 → +0.02 | -0.01 | 47%raw 54% | 22% – 97% | 2 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 10–23 | +1.0dog 14.0 | -0.17 → -0.18 | -0.05 → -0.13 | -0.05 | 36%raw 16% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 23–10 | -1.0fav 14.0 | -0.05 → -0.13 | -0.17 → -0.09 | -0.04 | 39%raw 84% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | MIN | 22 | +0.356 | +0.250 | +0.107 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.10 | +4.4 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | DET | 37 | +0.319 | +0.284 | +0.035 | +11.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.27 | -5.4 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | TEN | 27 | +0.289 | +0.349 | -0.060 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.7 | +0.15 | +2.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 36 | +0.207 | +0.117 | +0.090 | +7.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.11 | +1.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | TB | 36 | +0.192 | +0.228 | -0.037 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +4.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | IND | 51 | +0.144 | +0.167 | -0.022 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -2.9 | +0.49 | +1.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE | CIN | 36 | +0.130 | +0.188 | -0.058 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.23 | -0.4 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | SEA | 46 | +0.122 | +0.046 | +0.075 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | -0.13 | +4.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 40 | +0.094 | +0.205 | -0.111 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.09 | +6.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | LV | 21 | +0.062 | +0.094 | -0.033 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.04 | -6.1 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | KC | 31 | +0.061 | +0.046 | +0.015 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.05 | -5.1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | BAL | 31 | +0.032 | +0.025 | +0.007 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.16 | -1.5 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | PIT | 35 | +0.015 | +0.016 | -0.000 | +0.5 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 1 | -6.4 | +0.19 | -3.9 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | HOU | 42 | -0.065 | -0.173 | +0.108 | -2.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 8 | -12.5 | -0.64 | +0.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NYJ | 24 | -0.117 | -0.003 | -0.114 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.02 | +1.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | NO | 25 | -0.138 | -0.159 | +0.020 | -3.5 | 1 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.17 | +7.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | JAX | 55 | -0.141 | -0.155 | +0.014 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -10.4 | -0.82 | +3.1 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | CHI | 33 | -0.182 | -0.176 | -0.006 | -6.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.4 | 2 | -6.5 | -0.49 | +8.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | CAR | 32 | -0.185 | -0.099 | -0.086 | -5.9 | 3 / 0 | -13.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.16 | +1.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | BUF | 30 | -0.188 | -0.212 | +0.024 | -5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -7.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NYG | 43 | -0.198 | -0.144 | -0.054 | -8.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -6.0 | -0.12 | -2.9 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | ATL | 48 | -0.223 | -0.214 | -0.008 | -10.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.12 | +0.0 |
| Geno Smith | LV | CLE | 54 | -0.321 | -0.375 | +0.054 | -17.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 10 | -20.7 | -0.45 | +0.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | ARI | 33 | -0.352 | -0.273 | -0.079 | -11.6 | 3 / 1 | -21.2 | 3 | -7.8 | +0.00 | -3.0 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | NE | 37 | -0.362 | -0.386 | +0.024 | -13.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.7 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.63 | -7.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | SF | 31 | -0.369 | -0.322 | -0.047 | -11.4 | 2 / 0 | -11.5 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.33 | -2.6 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | GB | 24 | -0.696 | -0.686 | -0.010 | -16.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 5 | -6.8 | -0.25 | -4.2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | TB | LA | 17 | -0.743 | -0.735 | -0.008 | -12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -8.7 | -0.01 | -16.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | LA | 21 | -0.876 | -0.868 | -0.008 | -18.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.29 | -20.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.