Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS L | 0–31 | -32.5fav 1.5 | -0.43 → -0.36 | +0.31 → +0.39 | -0.75 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 31–0 | +32.5dog 1.5 | +0.31 → +0.24 | -0.43 → -0.48 | +0.72 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIA W | 34–10 | +21.5fav 2.5 | +0.21 → +0.13 | -0.45 → -0.39 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYJ L | 10–34 | -21.5dog 2.5 | -0.45 → -0.51 | +0.21 → +0.23 | -0.74 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 0 |
| SEA W | 37–9 | +21.0fav 7.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | -0.36 → -0.36 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 34% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ ATL L | 9–37 | -21.0dog 7.0 | -0.36 → -0.28 | +0.15 → +0.13 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 66% | 3 / 1 |
| LA W | 45–17 | +18.5fav 9.5 | +0.44 → +0.39 | -0.06 → -0.07 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 17–45 | -18.5dog 9.5 | -0.06 → -0.04 | +0.44 → +0.37 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 1 / 0 |
| PIT W | 27–22 | +10.5dog 5.5 | +0.27 → +0.28 | +0.01 → -0.06 | +0.34 | 98%raw 97% | 35% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL L | 22–27 | -10.5fav 5.5 | +0.01 → +0.00 | +0.27 → +0.29 | -0.29 | 4%raw 3% | 13% – 65% | 1 / 0 |
| IND L | 19–36 | -19.5fav 2.5 | -0.18 → -0.16 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 0% – 50% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 36–19 | +19.5dog 2.5 | +0.09 → +0.10 | -0.18 → -0.21 | +0.30 | 97%raw 97% | 50% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| DAL L | 30–44 | -10.5dog 3.5 | -0.03 → -0.01 | +0.33 → +0.26 | -0.27 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 50% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 44–30 | +10.5fav 3.5 | +0.33 → +0.23 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.28 | 96%raw 99% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| HOU W | 20–10 | +14.5dog 4.5 | -0.08 → -0.06 | -0.29 → -0.32 | +0.26 | 95%raw 95% | 37% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ KC L | 10–20 | -14.5fav 4.5 | -0.29 → -0.19 | -0.08 → -0.05 | -0.14 | 17%raw 5% | 1% – 63% | 3 / 0 |
| NO W | 24–20 | +11.5dog 7.5 | +0.02 → +0.00 | -0.18 → -0.21 | +0.22 | 92%raw 94% | 22% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TB L | 20–24 | -11.5fav 7.5 | -0.18 → -0.16 | +0.02 → +0.08 | -0.24 | 7%raw 6% | 2% – 78% | 1 / 1 |
| CHI L | 21–28 | -0.5dog 6.5 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.24 → +0.17 | -0.06 | 33%raw 12% | 1% – 54% | 1 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 28–21 | +0.5fav 6.5 | +0.24 → +0.24 | +0.09 → +0.08 | +0.16 | 86%raw 88% | 46% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI L | 19–22 | -4.5fav 1.5 | -0.26 → -0.21 | -0.27 → -0.25 | +0.04 | 62%raw 53% | 15% – 83% | 5 / 2 |
| @ LAC W | 22–19 | +4.5dog 1.5 | -0.27 → -0.21 | -0.26 → -0.31 | +0.11 | 76%raw 47% | 17% – 85% | 2 / 5 |
| DEN W | 24–17 | -1.5fav 8.5 | +0.16 → +0.15 | -0.05 → +0.10 | +0.05 | 63%raw 95% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LV L | 17–24 | +1.5dog 8.5 | -0.05 → +0.02 | +0.16 → +0.15 | -0.12 | 20%raw 5% | 0% – 58% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN L | 34–39 | +1.0dog 6.0 | +0.14 → +0.15 | +0.24 → +0.12 | +0.03 | 57%raw 20% | 3% – 89% | 2 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 39–34 | -1.0fav 6.0 | +0.24 → +0.18 | +0.14 → +0.14 | +0.04 | 61%raw 80% | 11% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| TEN W | 31–29 | +6.5dog 4.5 | -0.09 → -0.05 | -0.03 → +0.12 | -0.17 | 13%raw 30% | 24% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 29–31 | -6.5fav 4.5 | -0.03 → -0.09 | -0.09 → +0.02 | -0.11 | 22%raw 70% | 3% – 76% | 2 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | CIN | 32 | +0.474 | +0.522 | -0.048 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.55 | +12.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 31 | +0.435 | +0.497 | -0.062 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +4.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 30 | +0.363 | +0.382 | -0.018 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | BAL | 34 | +0.324 | +0.311 | +0.014 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +4.3 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | ATL | 32 | +0.322 | +0.314 | +0.008 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.07 | -0.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 26 | +0.314 | +0.309 | +0.006 | +8.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.16 | +12.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | LV | DEN | 11 | +0.287 | +0.187 | +0.100 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.08 | +13.2 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | WAS | 27 | +0.268 | +0.343 | -0.075 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.6 | +0.22 | +0.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BUF | 38 | +0.248 | +0.215 | +0.033 | +9.4 | 2 / 0 | -15.6 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.06 | +7.0 |
| Jared Goff | DET | DAL | 35 | +0.241 | +0.349 | -0.107 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.26 | +9.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LV | 41 | +0.114 | +0.144 | -0.030 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.6 | +0.22 | +11.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | TEN | 44 | +0.092 | +0.157 | -0.064 | +4.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.01 | -4.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | DET | 53 | +0.043 | +0.019 | +0.024 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.05 | +1.2 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | TB | 23 | +0.039 | +0.078 | -0.038 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.29 | -2.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | KC | 34 | +0.018 | +0.006 | +0.012 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.03 | -6.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | GB | 36 | +0.002 | -0.005 | +0.007 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.05 | +1.9 |
| Geno Smith | LV | DEN | 24 | -0.012 | -0.112 | +0.100 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.12 | +5.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 22 | -0.035 | +0.076 | -0.110 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.06 | -9.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | LA | 47 | -0.064 | -0.070 | +0.006 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.10 | -8.4 |
| Riley Leonard | IND | JAX | 31 | -0.122 | -0.136 | +0.015 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.07 | -1.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 35 | -0.139 | -0.137 | -0.002 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.27 | -5.0 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | CLE | 29 | -0.248 | -0.303 | +0.055 | -7.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.19 | -10.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NO | 30 | -0.309 | -0.327 | +0.018 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.50 | -16.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LAC | 41 | -0.331 | -0.396 | +0.065 | -13.6 | 4 / 0 | -21.8 | 1 | -2.6 | -1.04 | -10.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | PHI | 33 | -0.394 | -0.472 | +0.079 | -13.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.0 | 7 | -12.5 | -0.64 | -15.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | SEA | 31 | -0.435 | -0.496 | +0.061 | -13.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.15 | -12.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | MIN | 21 | -0.454 | -0.536 | +0.082 | -9.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.10 | -17.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | HOU | 34 | -0.555 | -0.656 | +0.101 | -18.9 | 3 / 0 | -8.2 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.62 | -14.9 |
| Brady Cook | NYJ | MIA | 36 | -0.556 | -0.494 | -0.062 | -20.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 6 | -9.4 | -0.14 | -18.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.