Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN L | 0–26 | -13.5dog 12.5 | -0.70 → -0.64 | -0.18 → -0.21 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 49% | 6 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 26–0 | +13.5fav 12.5 | -0.18 → -0.10 | -0.70 → -0.65 | +0.55 | 100%raw 100% | 51% – 100% | 1 / 6 |
| BUF W | 26–7 | +16.0fav 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.42 → -0.42 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 25% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 7–26 | -16.0dog 3.0 | -0.42 → -0.43 | +0.10 → -0.02 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 75% | 2 / 2 |
| CIN W | 32–14 | +25.0dog 7.0 | -0.00 → -0.00 | -0.34 → -0.43 | +0.42 | 99%raw 99% | 26% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| @ BAL L | 14–32 | -25.0fav 7.0 | -0.34 → -0.42 | -0.00 → -0.01 | -0.41 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 74% | 5 / 1 |
| GB W | 31–24 | +9.5dog 2.5 | +0.29 → +0.31 | +0.04 → -0.04 | +0.36 | 98%raw 97% | 42% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DET L | 24–31 | -9.5fav 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.05 | +0.29 → +0.22 | -0.17 | 13%raw 3% | 1% – 58% | 0 / 0 |
| LV L | 14–31 | -7.0dog 10.0 | -0.33 → -0.28 | +0.14 → +0.17 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 31–14 | +7.0fav 10.0 | +0.14 → +0.13 | -0.33 → -0.18 | +0.32 | 97%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| JAX W | 25–3 | +16.0fav 6.0 | -0.01 → -0.07 | -0.42 → -0.32 | +0.25 | 94%raw 100% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 3–25 | -16.0dog 6.0 | -0.42 → -0.42 | -0.01 → -0.01 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 72% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG L | 15–33 | -11.0dog 7.0 | -0.13 → -0.09 | +0.17 → +0.14 | -0.23 | 7%raw 2% | 0% – 45% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 33–15 | +11.0fav 7.0 | +0.17 → +0.12 | -0.13 → -0.11 | +0.23 | 93%raw 98% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| LA L | 28–31 | -13.0fav 10.0 | +0.14 → +0.06 | +0.24 → +0.29 | -0.23 | 7%raw 21% | 4% – 66% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 31–28 | +13.0dog 10.0 | +0.24 → +0.27 | +0.14 → +0.06 | +0.20 | 91%raw 79% | 34% – 96% | 0 / 3 |
| CHI W | 24–15 | +16.0dog 7.0 | +0.04 → +0.12 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.18 | 88%raw 69% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ PHI L | 15–24 | -16.0fav 7.0 | -0.02 → -0.03 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.05 | 36%raw 31% | 0% – 68% | 2 / 1 |
| HOU W | 20–16 | +7.0dog 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.12 → -0.14 | +0.16 | 85%raw 85% | 37% – 96% | 1 / 0 |
| @ IND L | 16–20 | -7.0fav 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.01 | +0.01 → +0.04 | -0.05 | 37%raw 15% | 4% – 63% | 0 / 1 |
| SF W | 26–8 | +12.5fav 5.5 | +0.02 → +0.07 | -0.22 → -0.07 | +0.14 | 83%raw 96% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE L | 8–26 | -12.5dog 5.5 | -0.22 → -0.27 | +0.02 → -0.02 | -0.25 | 6%raw 4% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| DEN W | 27–26 | -5.5fav 6.5 | +0.18 → +0.11 | +0.08 → +0.05 | +0.05 | 65%raw 79% | 8% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 26–27 | +5.5dog 6.5 | +0.08 → +0.17 | +0.18 → +0.18 | -0.01 | 47%raw 21% | 7% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI L | 17–20 | +1.5dog 4.5 | -0.03 → -0.04 | +0.06 → +0.03 | -0.08 | 30%raw 23% | 2% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 20–17 | -1.5fav 4.5 | +0.06 → +0.01 | -0.03 → -0.03 | +0.04 | 61%raw 77% | 38% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| KC L | 28–31 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.25 → +0.15 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.06 | 35%raw 61% | 3% – 73% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 31–28 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.22 → +0.24 | +0.25 → +0.24 | +0.01 | 52%raw 39% | 27% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
| ATL L | 24–27 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.17 → +0.10 | +0.01 → +0.09 | +0.01 | 52%raw 90% | 20% – 82% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NYJ W | 27–24 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.00 | +0.17 → +0.19 | -0.19 | 11%raw 10% | 18% – 80% | 0 / 0 |
| NO L | 17–21 | +1.5dog 5.5 | -0.14 → -0.19 | -0.13 → -0.12 | -0.07 | 32%raw 48% | 3% – 46% | 2 / 1 |
| @ MIA W | 21–17 | -1.5fav 5.5 | -0.13 → -0.11 | -0.14 → -0.09 | -0.03 | 43%raw 52% | 54% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | CAR | LA | 22 | +0.670 | +0.648 | +0.022 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.70 | +8.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 30 | +0.581 | +0.545 | +0.036 | +17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +0.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | KC | 40 | +0.412 | +0.390 | +0.022 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.52 | +4.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 29 | +0.341 | +0.327 | +0.013 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.36 | +4.3 |
| Drake Maye | NE | NYG | 34 | +0.298 | +0.339 | -0.041 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.12 | +15.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 23 | +0.290 | +0.318 | -0.028 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.05 | +10.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DAL | 37 | +0.278 | +0.383 | -0.105 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.41 | +4.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | PIT | 23 | +0.240 | +0.235 | +0.005 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -8.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 37 | +0.183 | +0.205 | -0.023 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.21 | +6.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | CLE | 31 | +0.174 | +0.110 | +0.064 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.23 | +9.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 47 | +0.139 | +0.131 | +0.008 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.10 | -6.0 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | WAS | 46 | +0.136 | +0.215 | -0.079 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.61 | -4.0 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | HOU | 28 | +0.134 | +0.022 | +0.112 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.06 | -8.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 30 | +0.097 | +0.162 | -0.065 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.29 | +4.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | DEN | 53 | +0.095 | -0.006 | +0.101 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.74 | +3.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | TB | 41 | +0.093 | +0.133 | -0.039 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.16 | +11.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CHI | 33 | +0.076 | +0.076 | +0.000 | +2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +0.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | NYJ | 35 | +0.059 | +0.167 | -0.108 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.13 | -0.8 |
| Geno Smith | LV | LAC | 28 | -0.004 | -0.076 | +0.072 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 5 | -10.8 | -0.08 | +12.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ARI | 30 | -0.014 | +0.058 | -0.072 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.05 | -0.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | ATL | 35 | -0.027 | -0.028 | +0.001 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | -0.13 | -1.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | PHI | 38 | -0.076 | -0.159 | +0.083 | -2.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.29 | -12.5 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | NE | 27 | -0.151 | -0.178 | +0.028 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | SF | 28 | -0.186 | -0.141 | -0.046 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | +0.05 | +0.3 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | MIN | 30 | -0.191 | -0.284 | +0.093 | -5.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 4 | -10.4 | -0.32 | -15.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CAR | 30 | -0.205 | -0.117 | -0.088 | -6.1 | 2 / 1 | -18.1 | 2 | -6.6 | -0.08 | +3.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NO | 26 | -0.305 | -0.321 | +0.015 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.12 | -1.3 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | MIA | 43 | -0.312 | -0.260 | -0.052 | -13.4 | 1 / 1 | -11.2 | 4 | -10.7 | -0.32 | +9.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 35 | -0.408 | -0.337 | -0.071 | -14.3 | 1 / 2 | -15.2 | 3 | -11.4 | -0.51 | -6.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | BUF | 22 | -0.419 | -0.435 | +0.017 | -9.2 | 0 / 1 | -8.5 | 1 | -8.5 | -0.34 | -20.2 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | JAX | 41 | -0.492 | -0.498 | +0.006 | -20.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.19 | -1.7 |
| Max Brosmer | MIN | SEA | 34 | -0.804 | -0.857 | +0.053 | -27.3 | 4 / 0 | -18.8 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.58 | -4.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.