Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO L | 10–34 | -10.0dog 14.0 | -0.32 → -0.31 | +0.27 → +0.19 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 34–10 | +10.0fav 14.0 | +0.27 → +0.30 | -0.32 → -0.27 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| SEA W | 38–14 | +21.5fav 2.5 | +0.45 → +0.38 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.44 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 14–38 | -21.5dog 2.5 | -0.02 → +0.06 | +0.45 → +0.44 | -0.37 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| BAL W | 28–6 | +14.5fav 7.5 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.20 → -0.18 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ MIA L | 6–28 | -14.5dog 7.5 | -0.20 → -0.21 | +0.21 → +0.14 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 0 |
| KC L | 21–28 | -9.5fav 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.23 → +0.11 | -0.09 | 27%raw 5% | 1% – 60% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 28–21 | +9.5dog 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.26 | +0.02 → -0.00 | +0.26 | 95%raw 95% | 40% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| CHI W | 47–42 | +2.0fav 3.0 | +0.47 → +0.41 | +0.22 → +0.22 | +0.20 | 90%raw 97% | 23% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CIN L | 42–47 | -2.0dog 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.21 | +0.47 → +0.47 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 0% – 77% | 3 / 0 |
| ARI W | 27–17 | +13.5dog 3.5 | +0.11 → +0.01 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.14 | 83%raw 96% | 32% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ DAL L | 17–27 | -13.5fav 3.5 | -0.11 → -0.17 | +0.11 → +0.11 | -0.28 | 4%raw 4% | 0% – 68% | 3 / 0 |
| CAR W | 16–13 | +15.5dog 12.5 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.04 → -0.04 | +0.14 | 83%raw 67% | 28% – 86% | 1 / 2 |
| @ GB L | 13–16 | -15.5fav 12.5 | +0.04 → -0.04 | +0.09 → +0.15 | -0.18 | 12%raw 33% | 14% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| ATL L | 23–24 | +4.5dog 5.5 | +0.07 → +0.11 | +0.01 → -0.02 | +0.13 | 82%raw 68% | 7% – 56% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NE W | 24–23 | -4.5fav 5.5 | +0.01 → +0.01 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.07 | 30%raw 32% | 44% – 93% | 2 / 0 |
| DEN W | 18–15 | +4.5dog 1.5 | -0.11 → +0.00 | -0.15 → -0.12 | +0.12 | 80%raw 64% | 11% – 82% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 15–18 | -4.5fav 1.5 | -0.15 → -0.08 | -0.11 → -0.12 | +0.05 | 64%raw 36% | 18% – 89% | 0 / 1 |
| LAC W | 27–20 | -3.0fav 10.0 | +0.08 → +0.03 | -0.18 → -0.06 | +0.09 | 73%raw 97% | 29% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 20–27 | +3.0dog 10.0 | -0.18 → -0.12 | +0.08 → +0.12 | -0.23 | 7%raw 3% | 1% – 71% | 0 / 1 |
| MIN W | 27–24 | +12.5dog 9.5 | -0.02 → -0.01 | -0.01 → -0.09 | +0.08 | 72%raw 45% | 30% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 24–27 | -12.5fav 9.5 | -0.01 → +0.08 | -0.02 → +0.05 | +0.03 | 57%raw 55% | 3% – 70% | 1 / 1 |
| SF W | 34–24 | +7.5fav 2.5 | +0.33 → +0.28 | +0.17 → +0.20 | +0.08 | 72%raw 90% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYG L | 24–34 | -7.5dog 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.13 | +0.33 → +0.30 | -0.17 | 13%raw 10% | 0% – 72% | 0 / 1 |
| IND L | 20–27 | -10.5fav 3.5 | -0.12 → -0.14 | -0.11 → -0.10 | -0.03 | 40%raw 47% | 0% – 79% | 5 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 27–20 | +10.5dog 3.5 | -0.11 → -0.12 | -0.12 → -0.15 | +0.04 | 60%raw 53% | 21% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| JAX W | 30–29 | -1.5fav 2.5 | +0.16 → +0.15 | +0.16 → +0.32 | -0.17 | 13%raw 50% | 8% – 96% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 29–30 | +1.5dog 2.5 | +0.16 → +0.18 | +0.16 → +0.15 | +0.03 | 58%raw 50% | 4% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | SEA | WAS | 24 | +0.874 | +0.935 | -0.061 | +21.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +23.5 |
| Mac Jones | SF | NYG | 26 | +0.480 | +0.519 | -0.039 | +12.5 | 0 / 1 | -2.2 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.17 | +12.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NO | 34 | +0.381 | +0.348 | +0.033 | +13.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.20 | +12.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIA | 25 | +0.381 | +0.416 | -0.035 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.30 | +18.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | DEN | 12 | +0.357 | +0.257 | +0.100 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.10 | -8.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 29 | +0.351 | +0.331 | +0.020 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.37 | +18.4 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | CHI | 51 | +0.334 | +0.328 | +0.006 | +17.0 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 3 | -8.7 | +0.59 | +2.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | CIN | 37 | +0.327 | +0.379 | -0.052 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.80 | -0.9 |
| Geno Smith | LV | JAX | 42 | +0.294 | +0.271 | +0.023 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -1.0 | -0.18 | +1.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 42 | +0.200 | +0.098 | +0.102 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | -0.08 | -2.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | NE | 38 | +0.133 | +0.098 | +0.035 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.14 | +4.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BAL | 41 | +0.092 | +0.085 | +0.006 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.11 | -3.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | DAL | 36 | +0.083 | +0.195 | -0.112 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.6 | +0.28 | +7.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CAR | 38 | +0.074 | +0.155 | -0.081 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.34 | +9.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | HOU | 39 | +0.021 | -0.090 | +0.111 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.08 | -10.2 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | SEA | 26 | +0.021 | -0.051 | +0.072 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.01 | +4.0 |
| Drake Maye | NE | ATL | 35 | +0.013 | +0.012 | +0.000 | +0.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.7 | 6 | -12.1 | +0.19 | +5.3 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | SF | 35 | +0.012 | +0.049 | -0.037 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.20 | +3.7 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | LA | 24 | +0.011 | +0.004 | +0.007 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.05 | -2.9 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | LAC | 25 | +0.004 | -0.068 | +0.072 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.07 | -11.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | TEN | 35 | -0.013 | +0.052 | -0.065 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 6 | -7.6 | +0.01 | +6.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 38 | -0.017 | -0.044 | +0.027 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.19 | -4.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | IND | 38 | -0.028 | +0.000 | -0.028 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.03 | -2.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LV | 34 | -0.063 | -0.027 | -0.037 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.3 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.21 | -0.0 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | DEN | 32 | -0.078 | -0.177 | +0.100 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.28 | -13.1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | GB | 21 | -0.152 | -0.157 | +0.006 | -3.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | +0.2 | -0.03 | -11.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | ARI | 43 | -0.198 | -0.122 | -0.076 | -8.5 | 1 / 0 | +0.2 | 5 | -8.2 | -0.25 | -0.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | DET | 30 | -0.227 | -0.247 | +0.020 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 5 | -8.4 | -0.02 | -0.1 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | PIT | 54 | -0.310 | -0.302 | -0.009 | -16.8 | 3 / 2 | -26.8 | 5 | -15.3 | -0.40 | -1.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.