Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE W | 42–10 | +19.5fav 12.5 | +0.49 → +0.42 | -0.20 → -0.12 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 10–42 | -19.5dog 12.5 | -0.20 → -0.16 | +0.49 → +0.46 | -0.63 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL W | 41–24 | +19.5dog 2.5 | +0.37 → +0.39 | +0.11 → +0.03 | +0.35 | 98%raw 97% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ GB L | 24–41 | -19.5fav 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.11 | +0.37 → +0.30 | -0.19 | 10%raw 3% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| ARI L | 14–37 | -16.0dog 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.12 | +0.34 → +0.34 | -0.46 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 50% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 37–14 | +16.0fav 7.0 | +0.34 → +0.29 | -0.05 → -0.05 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| DEN W | 20–13 | -6.5fav 13.5 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.20 → -0.23 | +0.34 | 98%raw 98% | 25% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC L | 13–20 | +6.5dog 13.5 | -0.20 → -0.13 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.21 | 8%raw 2% | 1% – 75% | 0 / 1 |
| SEA W | 27–10 | +10.5fav 6.5 | -0.05 → -0.14 | -0.51 → -0.48 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CAR L | 10–27 | -10.5dog 6.5 | -0.51 → -0.44 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.36 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 2 / 2 |
| LA L | 24–27 | -10.5fav 7.5 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.12 → +0.13 | -0.24 | 6%raw 5% | 3% – 53% | 3 / 0 |
| @ ATL W | 27–24 | +10.5dog 7.5 | +0.12 → +0.14 | -0.10 → -0.19 | +0.33 | 97%raw 95% | 47% – 97% | 0 / 3 |
| NYG W | 34–10 | +21.0fav 3.0 | +0.24 → +0.24 | -0.21 → -0.06 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LV L | 10–34 | -21.0dog 3.0 | -0.21 → -0.28 | +0.24 → +0.27 | -0.55 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 72% | 2 / 0 |
| DET L | 10–23 | -20.0fav 7.0 | -0.46 → -0.39 | -0.28 → -0.21 | -0.18 | 12%raw 7% | 0% – 55% | 6 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 23–10 | +20.0dog 7.0 | -0.28 → -0.27 | -0.46 → -0.56 | +0.29 | 96%raw 93% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 6 |
| NO W | 34–26 | +6.5fav 1.5 | +0.25 → +0.19 | -0.18 → -0.07 | +0.26 | 95%raw 100% | 12% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 26–34 | -6.5dog 1.5 | -0.18 → -0.16 | +0.25 → +0.31 | -0.47 | 0%raw 0% | 2% – 88% | 1 / 1 |
| JAX W | 23–17 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.21 → -0.24 | +0.24 | 94%raw 95% | 22% – 95% | 2 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 17–23 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.21 → -0.19 | +0.01 → -0.00 | -0.19 | 11%raw 5% | 5% – 78% | 2 / 2 |
| PHI W | 13–12 | +4.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.11 | -0.11 → -0.24 | +0.12 | 80%raw 46% | 28% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BUF L | 12–13 | -4.0fav 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.04 | -0.12 → -0.17 | +0.13 | 80%raw 54% | 3% – 72% | 1 / 0 |
| HOU W | 20–16 | +5.5dog 1.5 | -0.15 → -0.09 | -0.22 → -0.19 | +0.10 | 76%raw 70% | 42% – 98% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LAC L | 16–20 | -5.5fav 1.5 | -0.22 → -0.11 | -0.15 → -0.12 | +0.02 | 55%raw 30% | 2% – 58% | 1 / 2 |
| TB L | 17–20 | -8.5fav 5.5 | +0.04 → -0.00 | +0.11 → +0.13 | -0.14 | 18%raw 27% | 0% – 69% | 3 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 20–17 | +8.5dog 5.5 | +0.11 → +0.10 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.09 | 73%raw 73% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| CHI L | 38–42 | -0.5dog 3.5 | +0.36 → +0.33 | +0.28 → +0.25 | +0.07 | 69%raw 74% | 19% – 69% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 42–38 | +0.5fav 3.5 | +0.28 → +0.28 | +0.36 → +0.35 | -0.07 | 31%raw 26% | 31% – 81% | 1 / 0 |
| DAL W | 30–23 | -1.5fav 8.5 | +0.21 → +0.14 | +0.20 → +0.17 | -0.03 | 42%raw 56% | 40% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| @ WAS L | 23–30 | +1.5dog 8.5 | +0.20 → +0.09 | +0.21 → +0.20 | -0.11 | 23%raw 44% | 1% – 60% | 0 / 0 |
| PIT L | 6–13 | -11.5fav 4.5 | -0.20 → -0.17 | -0.23 → -0.09 | -0.08 | 30%raw 60% | 1% – 48% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 13–6 | +11.5dog 4.5 | -0.23 → -0.25 | -0.20 → -0.20 | -0.06 | 35%raw 40% | 52% – 99% | 2 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | NYJ | 22 | +1.243 | +1.327 | -0.084 | +27.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.32 | +29.3 |
| Malik Willis | GB | BAL | 22 | +0.839 | +0.823 | +0.016 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.48 | +21.3 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | TEN | 29 | +0.572 | +0.626 | -0.054 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.47 | +19.8 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | ARI | 34 | +0.498 | +0.560 | -0.062 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.26 | +13.5 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | SF | 41 | +0.410 | +0.442 | -0.031 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | -2.7 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | CHI | 34 | +0.381 | +0.374 | +0.007 | +13.0 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.68 | +5.0 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | GB | 21 | +0.323 | +0.308 | +0.015 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.16 | +10.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | LA | 20 | +0.260 | +0.246 | +0.013 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +0.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 43 | +0.195 | +0.273 | -0.078 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -4.1 | +0.22 | -11.0 |
| Quinn Ewers | MIA | TB | 24 | +0.161 | +0.198 | -0.037 | +3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.19 | +0.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 39 | +0.142 | +0.164 | -0.022 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.09 | -0.2 |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | DAL | 23 | +0.101 | +0.213 | -0.112 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.10 | +4.8 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | KC | 39 | +0.091 | +0.075 | +0.016 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.19 | +3.6 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | LV | 32 | +0.064 | +0.093 | -0.030 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.04 | +4.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | MIA | 47 | -0.008 | +0.037 | -0.045 | -0.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.0 | 3 | -7.5 | -0.05 | +9.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ATL | 41 | -0.069 | -0.067 | -0.002 | -2.8 | 3 / 0 | -14.3 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.26 | -3.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | CIN | 41 | -0.083 | -0.019 | -0.064 | -3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.5 | +0.02 | -5.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | LAC | 28 | -0.099 | -0.169 | +0.070 | -2.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -7.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | HOU | 37 | -0.132 | -0.240 | +0.108 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 5 | -9.2 | -0.20 | +1.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 34 | -0.140 | -0.234 | +0.094 | -4.8 | 2 / 1 | -12.7 | 5 | -11.7 | -0.15 | -9.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | PHI | 41 | -0.150 | -0.230 | +0.080 | -6.2 | 0 / 1 | -7.5 | 5 | -15.2 | -0.49 | -0.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | BUF | 28 | -0.153 | -0.179 | +0.026 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.02 | -2.1 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | NO | 44 | -0.176 | -0.195 | +0.020 | -7.7 | 0 / 1 | -8.8 | 4 | -14.3 | -0.32 | -0.3 |
| Geno Smith | LV | NYG | 31 | -0.210 | -0.155 | -0.055 | -6.5 | 2 / 0 | -11.7 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.16 | +7.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | PIT | 25 | -0.226 | -0.220 | -0.006 | -5.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.15 | +7.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CLE | 39 | -0.263 | -0.318 | +0.055 | -10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.49 | -9.1 |
| Chris Oladokun | KC | DEN | 22 | -0.288 | -0.381 | +0.092 | -6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.26 | -1.8 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | CAR | 30 | -0.345 | -0.254 | -0.091 | -10.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.8 | 3 | -9.1 | -0.27 | +0.7 |
| Philip Rivers | IND | JAX | 32 | -0.353 | -0.361 | +0.008 | -11.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.45 | -9.7 |
| Brady Cook | NYJ | NE | 34 | -0.422 | -0.446 | +0.024 | -14.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.03 | -7.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | SEA | 26 | -0.752 | -0.811 | +0.059 | -19.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.48 | -7.1 |
| Max Brosmer | MIN | DET | 23 | -0.755 | -0.764 | +0.008 | -17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -10.9 | -0.64 | -9.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.