Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF W | 48–27 | +16.5fav 4.5 | +0.40 → +0.42 | -0.04 → -0.06 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ IND L | 27–48 | -16.5dog 4.5 | -0.04 → -0.08 | +0.40 → +0.37 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 1 / 1 |
| KC L | 9–26 | -20.5fav 3.5 | -0.31 → -0.38 | +0.04 → +0.17 | -0.55 | 0%raw 1% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 26–9 | +20.5dog 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.31 → -0.34 | +0.41 | 99%raw 99% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| PHI W | 29–18 | +4.0fav 7.0 | +0.28 → +0.20 | -0.15 → -0.19 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 18–29 | -4.0dog 7.0 | -0.15 → -0.08 | +0.28 → +0.24 | -0.32 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| CIN W | 45–21 | +20.5fav 3.5 | +0.37 → +0.35 | -0.06 → -0.04 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ MIA L | 21–45 | -20.5dog 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.13 | +0.37 → +0.38 | -0.51 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 69% | 3 / 0 |
| LA L | 37–38 | +0.5dog 1.5 | +0.24 → +0.34 | -0.02 → -0.04 | +0.38 | 99%raw 97% | 9% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ SEA W | 38–37 | -0.5fav 1.5 | -0.02 → +0.00 | +0.24 → +0.17 | -0.17 | 13%raw 3% | 1% – 91% | 3 / 0 |
| LAC W | 34–17 | +18.5dog 1.5 | +0.45 → +0.35 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 17–34 | -18.5fav 1.5 | +0.03 → +0.10 | +0.45 → +0.49 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 1 / 0 |
| MIN W | 16–13 | +0.5fav 2.5 | -0.06 → -0.12 | -0.38 → -0.37 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 36% – 97% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 13–16 | -0.5dog 2.5 | -0.38 → -0.31 | -0.06 → +0.01 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 3% – 64% | 1 / 2 |
| JAX W | 34–20 | +17.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.17 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.22 | 92%raw 84% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 20–34 | -17.5fav 3.5 | -0.03 → -0.01 | +0.09 → +0.08 | -0.10 | 26%raw 16% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| PIT W | 29–24 | +12.5dog 7.5 | +0.21 → +0.23 | +0.10 → +0.02 | +0.21 | 91%raw 82% | 24% – 96% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET L | 24–29 | -12.5fav 7.5 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.21 → +0.23 | -0.14 | 17%raw 18% | 4% – 76% | 0 / 1 |
| LV L | 21–23 | +12.5dog 14.5 | -0.04 → +0.07 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.20 | 91%raw 83% | 2% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 23–21 | -12.5fav 14.5 | -0.16 → -0.17 | -0.04 → +0.11 | -0.29 | 4%raw 17% | 43% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 6–29 | -16.5dog 6.5 | -0.36 → -0.34 | -0.01 → +0.05 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 62% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NO W | 29–6 | +16.5fav 6.5 | -0.01 → -0.09 | -0.36 → -0.29 | +0.20 | 90%raw 99% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| NE W | 28–24 | +7.5dog 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.22 | +0.11 → +0.03 | +0.18 | 88%raw 81% | 9% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BAL L | 24–28 | -7.5fav 3.5 | +0.11 → +0.15 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.03 | 41%raw 19% | 1% – 91% | 2 / 2 |
| GB L | 16–22 | -4.5dog 1.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.03 | 41%raw 37% | 28% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 22–16 | +4.5fav 1.5 | +0.10 → +0.11 | +0.06 → -0.02 | +0.13 | 81%raw 63% | 2% – 72% | 0 / 1 |
| BUF W | 23–20 | -7.5fav 10.5 | +0.06 → +0.11 | -0.10 → +0.05 | +0.05 | 65%raw 89% | 29% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 20–23 | +7.5dog 10.5 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.06 → -0.06 | -0.03 | 42%raw 11% | 3% – 71% | 2 / 0 |
| TB L | 20–23 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.03 | +0.10 → +0.15 | -0.12 | 20%raw 52% | 4% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 23–20 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.11 → +0.08 | +0.01 | 52%raw 48% | 24% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL W | 26–19 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.05 → -0.00 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.01 | 52%raw 69% | 21% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 19–26 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.08 | 30%raw 31% | 1% – 79% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DAL | 29 | +0.722 | +0.819 | -0.097 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.70 | +18.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NE | 10 | +0.668 | +0.629 | +0.039 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +7.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 49 | +0.618 | +0.533 | +0.085 | +30.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.96 | -2.7 |
| Malik Willis | GB | CHI | 13 | +0.588 | +0.580 | +0.007 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.3 | +0.32 | +20.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | IND | 35 | +0.573 | +0.587 | -0.014 | +20.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.50 | +12.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | MIA | 34 | +0.572 | +0.605 | -0.033 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.43 | +15.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | LAC | 31 | +0.491 | +0.412 | +0.079 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.39 | +4.0 |
| Drake Maye | NE | BAL | 48 | +0.341 | +0.329 | +0.011 | +16.3 | 1 / 1 | -6.3 | 3 | -4.8 | +0.50 | +12.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | DEN | 41 | +0.331 | +0.224 | +0.107 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.3 | +0.37 | +5.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | DET | 43 | +0.286 | +0.256 | +0.029 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.29 | -1.4 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | KC | 30 | +0.244 | +0.226 | +0.018 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.11 | +10.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | PIT | 57 | +0.194 | +0.190 | +0.003 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.15 | -7.2 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | GB | 34 | +0.180 | +0.169 | +0.011 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.49 | +0.6 |
| Geno Smith | LV | HOU | 26 | +0.177 | +0.064 | +0.113 | +4.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.03 | +4.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | ARI | 36 | +0.156 | +0.225 | -0.069 | +5.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.20 | -6.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 32 | +0.156 | +0.234 | -0.078 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.33 | +7.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | NE | 11 | +0.142 | +0.104 | +0.039 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.10 | +24.8 |
| Quinn Ewers | MIA | CIN | 30 | +0.095 | +0.156 | -0.060 | +2.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 34 | +0.074 | +0.114 | -0.040 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.19 | +6.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | LV | 35 | +0.049 | +0.082 | -0.034 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | -1.5 |
| Philip Rivers | IND | SF | 37 | +0.037 | +0.078 | -0.041 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -10.6 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.40 | -1.2 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | JAX | 48 | +0.023 | +0.006 | +0.017 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.14 | -3.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 28 | +0.022 | +0.101 | -0.079 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.25 | +1.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 13 | +0.015 | +0.007 | +0.007 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -2.2 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | NYJ | 51 | -0.054 | +0.054 | -0.108 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.11 | -1.5 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | LA | 39 | -0.063 | -0.069 | +0.006 | -2.5 | 2 / 0 | -12.2 | 4 | -3.2 | -0.10 | +1.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | ATL | 33 | -0.074 | -0.073 | -0.002 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| Max Brosmer | MIN | NYG | 10 | -0.109 | -0.054 | -0.054 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.10 | +10.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | PHI | 15 | -0.151 | -0.229 | +0.079 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.03 | -4.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | CLE | 21 | -0.349 | -0.403 | +0.054 | -7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.29 | -0.9 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | BUF | 31 | -0.355 | -0.376 | +0.022 | -11.0 | 2 / 0 | -11.1 | 2 | -4.6 | -0.48 | +1.4 |
| Chris Oladokun | KC | TEN | 20 | -0.368 | -0.290 | -0.079 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | -0.08 | -1.7 |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | PHI | 10 | -0.373 | -0.452 | +0.079 | -3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.05 | -15.4 |
| Brady Cook | NYJ | NO | 43 | -0.484 | -0.495 | +0.011 | -20.8 | 1 / 1 | -8.3 | 8 | -16.0 | -0.32 | -11.8 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | NYG | 17 | -0.545 | -0.491 | -0.054 | -9.3 | 1 / 1 | -12.2 | 3 | -10.5 | -0.28 | -3.6 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | MIN | 18 | -0.871 | -0.948 | +0.077 | -15.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 5 | -9.4 | -0.77 | -17.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.