Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU W | 44–10 | +31.5fav 2.5 | +0.39 → +0.40 | -0.34 → -0.42 | +0.82 | 100%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ BAL L | 10–44 | -31.5dog 2.5 | -0.34 → -0.23 | +0.39 → +0.43 | -0.67 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 0 |
| WAS W | 27–10 | +19.5dog 2.5 | +0.25 → +0.33 | -0.14 → -0.12 | +0.44 | 99%raw 100% | 14% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 10–27 | -19.5fav 2.5 | -0.14 → -0.23 | +0.25 → +0.23 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 86% | 2 / 1 |
| LV L | 6–40 | -27.0dog 7.0 | -0.21 → -0.22 | +0.33 → +0.31 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 40–6 | +27.0fav 7.0 | +0.33 → +0.33 | -0.21 → -0.06 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DET W | 37–24 | +2.5fav 10.5 | +0.23 → +0.16 | -0.12 → -0.13 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CIN L | 24–37 | -2.5dog 10.5 | -0.12 → -0.11 | +0.23 → +0.15 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 1 |
| NYG L | 14–26 | -10.5dog 1.5 | -0.29 → -0.27 | +0.05 → +0.11 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 83% | 5 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 26–14 | +10.5fav 1.5 | +0.05 → -0.01 | -0.29 → -0.27 | +0.27 | 95%raw 99% | 17% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| DAL W | 37–22 | +16.5dog 1.5 | +0.36 → +0.29 | -0.02 → +0.06 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 22–37 | -16.5fav 1.5 | -0.02 → -0.13 | +0.36 → +0.35 | -0.48 | 0%raw 1% | 0% – 69% | 1 / 0 |
| KC L | 28–31 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.19 → +0.22 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.19 | 90%raw 90% | 8% – 88% | 1 / 2 |
| @ JAX W | 31–28 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.05 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.13 | 20%raw 10% | 12% – 92% | 2 / 1 |
| DEN W | 21–17 | +7.5dog 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.13 | +0.00 → -0.04 | +0.17 | 87%raw 68% | 4% – 94% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 17–21 | -7.5fav 3.5 | +0.00 → +0.08 | +0.06 → +0.05 | +0.04 | 60%raw 32% | 6% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| NE W | 23–20 | +10.5dog 7.5 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.04 → -0.08 | +0.16 | 85%raw 58% | 31% – 93% | 1 / 3 |
| @ BUF L | 20–23 | -10.5fav 7.5 | +0.04 → +0.08 | +0.06 → +0.03 | +0.05 | 64%raw 42% | 7% – 69% | 3 / 1 |
| SF W | 26–23 | +11.5dog 8.5 | +0.12 → +0.15 | +0.07 → -0.00 | +0.15 | 85%raw 66% | 13% – 93% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 23–26 | -11.5fav 8.5 | +0.07 → +0.03 | +0.12 → +0.09 | -0.06 | 34%raw 34% | 7% – 87% | 2 / 0 |
| TB W | 38–35 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.39 → +0.48 | +0.41 → +0.39 | +0.09 | 73%raw 43% | 13% – 83% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 35–38 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.41 → +0.40 | +0.39 → +0.37 | +0.04 | 60%raw 57% | 17% – 87% | 2 / 0 |
| MIA L | 24–27 | -4.5fav 1.5 | +0.10 → +0.02 | +0.16 → +0.21 | -0.19 | 10%raw 29% | 4% – 88% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CAR W | 27–24 | +4.5dog 1.5 | +0.16 → +0.13 | +0.10 → +0.12 | +0.01 | 52%raw 71% | 12% – 96% | 2 / 0 |
| TEN W | 22–21 | +8.5dog 7.5 | -0.04 → -0.10 | -0.07 → -0.08 | -0.02 | 46%raw 61% | 2% – 69% | 3 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 21–22 | -8.5fav 7.5 | -0.07 → -0.14 | -0.04 → +0.08 | -0.22 | 8%raw 39% | 31% – 98% | 2 / 3 |
| MIN W | 21–17 | +0.5fav 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.08 | -0.01 → +0.14 | -0.06 | 34%raw 66% | 17% – 91% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CLE L | 17–21 | -0.5dog 3.5 | -0.01 → +0.07 | +0.04 → +0.11 | -0.04 | 39%raw 34% | 9% – 83% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | TB | SEA | 35 | +0.831 | +0.742 | +0.088 | +29.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.81 | +20.4 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | TB | 34 | +0.664 | +0.689 | -0.025 | +22.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.78 | +16.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | BAL | 29 | +0.650 | +0.629 | +0.021 | +18.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.20 | +19.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | LAC | 26 | +0.617 | +0.530 | +0.087 | +16.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.30 | -0.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CIN | 27 | +0.379 | +0.431 | -0.052 | +10.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 4 | -9.6 | +0.24 | +15.9 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 32 | +0.372 | +0.333 | +0.039 | +11.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.01 | +5.9 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | LV | 32 | +0.359 | +0.386 | -0.028 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -1.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 34 | +0.322 | +0.286 | +0.036 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -3.9 | +0.19 | +13.8 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | CLE | 37 | +0.304 | +0.235 | +0.069 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.53 | +6.9 |
| Mac Jones | SF | LA | 49 | +0.300 | +0.286 | +0.014 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.68 | -0.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 47 | +0.294 | +0.327 | -0.033 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.78 | -3.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYJ | 30 | +0.293 | +0.395 | -0.102 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.29 | -0.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CAR | 39 | +0.216 | +0.294 | -0.078 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.26 | +14.8 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | NYG | 31 | +0.199 | +0.241 | -0.043 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -3.2 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | PHI | 42 | +0.191 | +0.101 | +0.090 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.27 | +0.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DEN | 44 | +0.112 | +0.011 | +0.101 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.9 | -0.19 | -2.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | JAX | 41 | +0.085 | +0.065 | +0.020 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -12.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +6.2 |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | MIN | 34 | +0.033 | -0.065 | +0.098 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.23 | -6.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | TEN | 34 | -0.007 | +0.058 | -0.066 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.15 | +8.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | KC | 28 | -0.011 | -0.027 | +0.016 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -1.6 | +0.14 | +8.1 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | DAL | 52 | -0.030 | +0.084 | -0.114 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.15 | +5.1 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | ARI | 41 | -0.035 | +0.039 | -0.074 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | +2.9 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.31 | -9.6 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | MIA | 32 | -0.080 | -0.033 | -0.047 | -2.6 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 3 | -9.4 | +0.06 | +8.7 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | DET | 42 | -0.188 | -0.209 | +0.021 | -7.9 | 3 / 0 | -11.8 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.30 | +0.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | WAS | 33 | -0.273 | -0.186 | -0.087 | -9.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.26 | +3.9 |
| Cooper Rush | BAL | HOU | 21 | -0.273 | -0.376 | +0.103 | -5.7 | 3 / 0 | -14.1 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.00 | -0.3 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | NO | 40 | -0.286 | -0.307 | +0.020 | -11.4 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 1 | -6.0 | -0.37 | -1.7 |
| Geno Smith | LV | IND | 40 | -0.306 | -0.273 | -0.033 | -12.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.0 | 4 | -8.4 | -0.05 | -0.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.