Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI L | 21–52 | -25.0dog 6.0 | -0.17 → -0.16 | +0.41 → +0.34 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 52–21 | +25.0fav 6.0 | +0.41 → +0.41 | -0.17 → -0.19 | +0.60 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ATL W | 22–6 | +19.5dog 3.5 | -0.03 → +0.05 | -0.45 → -0.39 | +0.45 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ MIN L | 6–22 | -19.5fav 3.5 | -0.45 → -0.47 | -0.03 → -0.02 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 1 |
| BUF W | 30–10 | +14.0fav 6.0 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.30 → -0.22 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 10–30 | -14.0dog 6.0 | -0.30 → -0.29 | +0.20 → +0.08 | -0.37 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| WAS L | 18–27 | -5.5dog 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.18 | +0.16 → +0.09 | -0.27 | 5%raw 1% | 0% – 51% | 0 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 27–18 | +5.5fav 3.5 | +0.16 → +0.08 | -0.18 → -0.22 | +0.31 | 97%raw 99% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| LA W | 33–19 | +8.5fav 5.5 | +0.34 → +0.29 | -0.12 → -0.01 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 19–33 | -8.5dog 5.5 | -0.12 → -0.11 | +0.34 → +0.27 | -0.38 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 1 / 1 |
| CLE L | 17–41 | -11.5dog 12.5 | -0.26 → -0.27 | +0.12 → +0.05 | -0.33 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 41–17 | +11.5fav 12.5 | +0.12 → +0.17 | -0.26 → -0.12 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| TB W | 20–19 | +3.5dog 2.5 | +0.15 → +0.27 | -0.05 → -0.02 | +0.28 | 96%raw 93% | 13% – 78% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 19–20 | -3.5fav 2.5 | -0.05 → -0.06 | +0.15 → +0.12 | -0.19 | 11%raw 7% | 22% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
| SEA W | 31–17 | +17.5dog 3.5 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.20 → -0.19 | +0.26 | 95%raw 98% | 19% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 17–31 | -17.5fav 3.5 | -0.20 → -0.12 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.17 | 13%raw 2% | 0% – 81% | 2 / 2 |
| LAC W | 20–9 | +7.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → -0.03 | -0.39 → -0.25 | +0.21 | 92%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ LV L | 9–20 | -7.5dog 3.5 | -0.39 → -0.34 | -0.02 → +0.01 | -0.35 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 1 |
| PHI W | 20–17 | +1.5fav 1.5 | -0.00 → +0.01 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.17 | 88%raw 86% | 30% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ KC L | 17–20 | -1.5dog 1.5 | -0.14 → -0.07 | -0.00 → -0.05 | -0.02 | 44%raw 14% | 3% – 70% | 1 / 0 |
| NE W | 33–27 | +7.5dog 1.5 | +0.33 → +0.30 | +0.17 → +0.20 | +0.11 | 76%raw 90% | 23% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIA L | 27–33 | -7.5fav 1.5 | +0.17 → +0.21 | +0.33 → +0.30 | -0.09 | 27%raw 10% | 1% – 77% | 1 / 0 |
| SF W | 26–21 | +2.0fav 3.0 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.08 → -0.02 | +0.10 | 74%raw 85% | 35% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 21–26 | -2.0dog 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.13 | +0.05 → +0.01 | -0.14 | 18%raw 15% | 2% – 65% | 1 / 1 |
| DEN L | 28–29 | -3.5fav 2.5 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.15 → +0.13 | +0.07 | 68%raw 64% | 30% – 86% | 1 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 29–28 | +3.5dog 2.5 | +0.15 → +0.23 | +0.19 → +0.18 | +0.05 | 63%raw 36% | 14% – 70% | 0 / 1 |
| JAX L | 27–31 | -0.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.02 | -0.01 → -0.01 | +0.04 | 60%raw 80% | 6% – 87% | 2 / 3 |
| @ CIN W | 31–27 | +0.5fav 3.5 | -0.01 → +0.01 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.07 | 30%raw 20% | 13% – 94% | 3 / 2 |
| NYG L | 37–40 | +1.5dog 4.5 | +0.22 → +0.12 | +0.13 → +0.12 | +0.00 | 50%raw 77% | 19% – 81% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 40–37 | -1.5fav 4.5 | +0.13 → +0.08 | +0.22 → +0.25 | -0.17 | 13%raw 23% | 19% – 81% | 1 / 1 |
| CAR L | 22–27 | +2.0dog 7.0 | +0.01 → -0.05 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.18 | 12%raw 16% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 1 |
| @ ARI W | 27–22 | -2.0fav 7.0 | +0.13 → +0.05 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.00 | 49%raw 84% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 28 | +0.878 | +0.861 | +0.018 | +24.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +14.9 |
| Drake Maye | NE | MIA | 26 | +0.545 | +0.577 | -0.031 | +14.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.38 | +14.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | BUF | 13 | +0.436 | +0.415 | +0.021 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.00 | +1.6 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | DEN | 35 | +0.420 | +0.313 | +0.107 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.44 | +5.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 32 | +0.363 | +0.292 | +0.071 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.07 | +6.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 29 | +0.326 | +0.351 | -0.025 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.23 | +0.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 37 | +0.306 | +0.268 | +0.038 | +11.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 5 | -6.4 | +0.11 | +13.7 |
| Russell Wilson | NYG | DAL | 44 | +0.282 | +0.388 | -0.106 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 3 | -4.9 | +1.23 | +13.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | IND | 30 | +0.259 | +0.278 | -0.020 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +1.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | TEN | 34 | +0.226 | +0.288 | -0.061 | +7.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.42 | +10.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CAR | 26 | +0.157 | +0.236 | -0.079 | +4.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.06 | +0.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 55 | +0.138 | +0.184 | -0.046 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.71 | +2.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | WAS | 33 | +0.124 | +0.202 | -0.078 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.25 | +10.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | HOU | 43 | +0.099 | -0.015 | +0.114 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.15 | +1.9 |
| Mac Jones | SF | NO | 41 | +0.097 | +0.070 | +0.027 | +4.0 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 3 | -8.7 | +0.21 | -3.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | PIT | 35 | +0.082 | +0.082 | +0.001 | +2.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.12 | +7.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CIN | 43 | +0.055 | +0.116 | -0.062 | +2.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.5 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.22 | -5.0 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | JAX | 15 | +0.029 | +0.013 | +0.016 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.08 | -0.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | DET | 34 | -0.004 | -0.028 | +0.024 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 4 | -6.7 | +0.11 | -5.6 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ARI | 58 | -0.017 | +0.056 | -0.073 | -1.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 3 | -8.9 | -0.59 | -2.3 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | MIN | 24 | -0.039 | -0.135 | +0.096 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.30 | -7.5 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | JAX | 33 | -0.045 | -0.061 | +0.016 | -1.5 | 3 / 0 | -12.1 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | +3.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | SEA | 36 | -0.104 | -0.172 | +0.068 | -3.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.23 | -6.4 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | SF | 37 | -0.116 | -0.076 | -0.040 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.9 | -0.32 | +3.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | PHI | 31 | -0.145 | -0.231 | +0.086 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.13 | -5.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | GB | 46 | -0.172 | -0.172 | +0.001 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.22 | -7.2 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | LA | 38 | -0.174 | -0.177 | +0.004 | -6.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 5 | -11.0 | -0.28 | -4.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 26 | -0.194 | -0.086 | -0.107 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | -0.13 | -9.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | KC | 24 | -0.195 | -0.202 | +0.008 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.13 | +4.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | TB | 28 | -0.204 | -0.160 | -0.044 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.27 | -9.8 |
| Geno Smith | LV | LAC | 46 | -0.439 | -0.501 | +0.062 | -20.2 | 3 / 0 | -10.9 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.43 | -15.3 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | BAL | 47 | -0.575 | -0.569 | -0.006 | -27.0 | 1 / 1 | -15.6 | 2 | -9.3 | -0.32 | -3.1 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | ATL | 27 | -0.681 | -0.665 | -0.015 | -18.4 | 2 / 1 | -14.3 | 6 | -13.0 | -0.41 | -11.1 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | BUF | 13 | -0.712 | -0.733 | +0.021 | -9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.13 | -37.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.