Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
KC W	17–10	+11.5dog 4.5	+0.03 → +0.10	-0.18 → -0.24	+0.33	98%raw 94%	45% – 99%	0 / 3
@ BAL L	10–17	-11.5fav 4.5	-0.18 → -0.15	+0.03 → -0.05	-0.10	26%raw 6%	1% – 55%	3 / 0
DET L	31–34	+4.5dog 7.5	+0.13 → +0.18	+0.22 → +0.09	+0.09	73%raw 23%	3% – 93%	1 / 1
@ SF W	34–31	-4.5fav 7.5	+0.22 → +0.19	+0.13 → +0.05	+0.14	83%raw 77%	7% – 97%	1 / 1

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Patrick Mahomes	KC	BAL	41	+0.271	+0.190	+0.081	+11.1	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-2.1	+0.31	+13.6
Jared Goff	DET	SF	43	+0.236	+0.163	+0.073	+10.2	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-2.8	-0.11	-1.5
Brock Purdy	SF	DET	33	+0.148	+0.201	-0.053	+4.9	1 / 0	-2.5	2	-2.1	+0.01	+2.5
Lamar Jackson	BAL	KC	41	-0.066	-0.123	+0.057	-2.7	1 / 1	-9.7	4	-10.9	-0.33	-5.5

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.