Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF W | 30–7 | +21.5fav 1.5 | +0.16 → +0.17 | -0.34 → -0.33 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 7–30 | -21.5dog 1.5 | -0.34 → -0.30 | +0.16 → +0.03 | -0.33 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 1 |
| DAL W | 40–0 | +36.5fav 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.04 | -0.46 → -0.41 | +0.45 | 99%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYG L | 0–40 | -36.5dog 3.5 | -0.46 → -0.42 | +0.06 → -0.01 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 3 / 0 |
| LA W | 30–13 | +21.5dog 4.5 | +0.27 → +0.23 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.36 | 98%raw 99% | 18% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SEA L | 13–30 | -21.5fav 4.5 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.27 → +0.26 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 82% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN L | 3–24 | -22.0fav 1.0 | -0.47 → -0.41 | -0.16 → -0.10 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 48% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 24–3 | +22.0dog 1.0 | -0.16 → -0.18 | -0.47 → -0.51 | +0.32 | 97%raw 99% | 52% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| DET W | 21–20 | +5.0dog 4.0 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.15 → -0.23 | +0.31 | 97%raw 93% | 14% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| @ KC L | 20–21 | -5.0fav 4.0 | -0.15 → -0.19 | +0.05 → -0.04 | -0.15 | 16%raw 7% | 8% – 86% | 1 / 1 |
| GB W | 38–20 | +19.0dog 1.0 | +0.16 → +0.14 | -0.18 → -0.17 | +0.30 | 97%raw 99% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 20–38 | -19.0fav 1.0 | -0.18 → -0.22 | +0.16 → +0.10 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 56% | 2 / 0 |
| HOU L | 9–25 | -6.5dog 9.5 | -0.27 → -0.22 | -0.07 → -0.13 | -0.09 | 28%raw 6% | 0% – 56% | 1 / 2 |
| @ BAL W | 25–9 | +6.5fav 9.5 | -0.07 → -0.07 | -0.27 → -0.25 | +0.18 | 88%raw 94% | 44% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| BUF L | 16–22 | -8.5fav 2.5 | -0.07 → -0.01 | -0.05 → +0.09 | -0.10 | 25%raw 43% | 21% – 89% | 4 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 22–16 | +8.5dog 2.5 | -0.05 → -0.02 | -0.07 → -0.17 | +0.16 | 85%raw 57% | 11% – 79% | 1 / 4 |
| JAX W | 31–21 | +6.0fav 4.0 | -0.23 → -0.24 | -0.40 → -0.37 | +0.13 | 80%raw 90% | 20% – 98% | 2 / 3 |
| @ IND L | 21–31 | -6.0dog 4.0 | -0.40 → -0.41 | -0.23 → -0.23 | -0.18 | 11%raw 10% | 2% – 80% | 3 / 2 |
| LV W | 17–16 | +4.0dog 3.0 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.00 → +0.04 | +0.12 | 80%raw 91% | 15% – 91% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DEN L | 16–17 | -4.0fav 3.0 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.17 → +0.22 | -0.22 | 8%raw 9% | 9% – 85% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA W | 36–34 | +5.0dog 3.0 | +0.31 → +0.29 | +0.15 → +0.18 | +0.11 | 78%raw 89% | 16% – 96% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LAC L | 34–36 | -5.0fav 3.0 | +0.15 → +0.16 | +0.31 → +0.25 | -0.09 | 27%raw 11% | 4% – 84% | 0 / 2 |
| TEN L | 15–16 | +2.0dog 3.0 | -0.22 → -0.18 | -0.09 → -0.09 | -0.08 | 28%raw 15% | 4% – 66% | 3 / 1 |
| @ NO W | 16–15 | -2.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.12 | -0.22 → -0.20 | +0.08 | 72%raw 85% | 34% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| CAR L | 10–24 | -10.5dog 3.5 | -0.27 → -0.28 | -0.11 → -0.07 | -0.21 | 9%raw 10% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 0 |
| @ ATL W | 24–10 | +10.5fav 3.5 | -0.11 → -0.13 | -0.27 → -0.19 | +0.05 | 64%raw 90% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| TB W | 20–17 | +7.0dog 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.13 → -0.12 | +0.00 | 51%raw 59% | 22% – 96% | 0 / 3 |
| @ MIN L | 17–20 | -7.0fav 4.0 | -0.13 → -0.14 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.03 | 43%raw 41% | 4% – 78% | 3 / 0 |
| PHI W | 25–20 | +1.5fav 3.5 | -0.15 → -0.11 | -0.19 → -0.10 | -0.01 | 46%raw 65% | 42% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 20–25 | -1.5dog 3.5 | -0.19 → -0.23 | -0.15 → -0.22 | -0.01 | 49%raw 35% | 3% – 58% | 2 / 1 |
| ARI L | 16–20 | +3.0dog 7.0 | -0.35 → -0.41 | -0.29 → -0.24 | -0.18 | 12%raw 31% | 2% – 82% | 2 / 3 |
| @ WAS W | 20–16 | -3.0fav 7.0 | -0.29 → -0.38 | -0.35 → -0.32 | -0.06 | 34%raw 69% | 18% – 98% | 3 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | LAC | 45 | +0.604 | +0.602 | +0.002 | +27.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +1.27 | +0.7 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 28 | +0.593 | +0.636 | -0.042 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.38 | -5.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 38 | +0.506 | +0.544 | -0.038 | +19.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.56 | -0.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | DEN | 26 | +0.495 | +0.503 | -0.008 | +12.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.53 | +13.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | KC | 35 | +0.251 | +0.187 | +0.063 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.00 | -0.1 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | PIT | 32 | +0.200 | +0.204 | -0.004 | +6.4 | 0 / 1 | -7.0 | 3 | -10.2 | +0.25 | +3.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 24 | +0.173 | +0.174 | -0.001 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -10.2 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LV | 35 | +0.063 | +0.090 | -0.027 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.22 | +15.0 |
| Derek Carr | NO | TEN | 37 | +0.060 | +0.099 | -0.039 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 4 | -5.5 | +0.11 | +6.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 45 | +0.055 | -0.031 | +0.086 | +2.5 | 3 / 0 | -6.9 | 5 | -5.7 | -0.08 | +7.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | MIN | 35 | +0.010 | +0.026 | -0.016 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.16 | -3.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | TB | 46 | -0.021 | +0.007 | -0.028 | -1.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 2 | -7.0 | +0.07 | +5.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | MIA | 36 | -0.060 | -0.034 | -0.026 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.8 | -0.10 | +2.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NE | 36 | -0.102 | -0.135 | +0.033 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | -0.28 | +8.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | BUF | 23 | -0.108 | -0.139 | +0.031 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.05 | +6.4 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | JAX | 41 | -0.118 | -0.107 | -0.011 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 4 | -4.0 | -0.31 | -7.8 |
| Mac Jones | NE | PHI | 57 | -0.135 | -0.133 | -0.002 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -9.1 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.66 | -3.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | HOU | 26 | -0.158 | -0.170 | +0.012 | -4.1 | 1 / 1 | -9.4 | 4 | -10.2 | -0.04 | +11.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | BAL | 48 | -0.167 | -0.237 | +0.070 | -8.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 5 | -14.2 | -0.21 | -4.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 28 | -0.181 | -0.157 | -0.024 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.10 | -1.3 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | CAR | 22 | -0.210 | -0.202 | -0.008 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.09 | +6.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DET | 39 | -0.228 | -0.165 | -0.063 | -8.9 | 1 / 0 | -8.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.39 | -6.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | NO | 37 | -0.279 | -0.325 | +0.046 | -10.3 | 3 / 0 | -9.7 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.21 | -19.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 34 | -0.282 | -0.265 | -0.018 | -9.6 | 1 / 1 | -16.2 | 2 | -10.3 | -0.12 | +5.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | GB | 42 | -0.297 | -0.284 | -0.013 | -12.5 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 4 | -9.0 | -0.11 | -7.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ATL | 40 | -0.309 | -0.263 | -0.045 | -12.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.32 | -5.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | SF | 50 | -0.335 | -0.395 | +0.061 | -16.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.25 | +2.1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | WAS | 33 | -0.354 | -0.280 | -0.074 | -11.7 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.45 | +2.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | CIN | 32 | -0.360 | -0.340 | -0.021 | -11.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.30 | -6.9 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | ARI | 37 | -0.456 | -0.363 | -0.094 | -16.9 | 1 / 1 | -12.2 | 6 | -14.2 | -0.49 | -6.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 33 | -0.476 | -0.565 | +0.088 | -15.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -6.0 | -0.33 | -18.2 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DAL | 35 | -0.629 | -0.649 | +0.020 | -22.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 7 | -9.0 | -0.29 | -13.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.