Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET L | 6–38 | -29.0dog 3.0 | -0.15 → -0.08 | +0.47 → +0.43 | -0.52 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 38–6 | +29.0fav 3.0 | +0.47 → +0.45 | -0.15 → -0.23 | +0.69 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| LV L | 12–30 | -20.5fav 2.5 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.19 → +0.22 | -0.48 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 30–12 | +20.5dog 2.5 | +0.19 → +0.19 | -0.23 → -0.19 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIA L | 17–31 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.15 → -0.18 | +0.11 → +0.04 | -0.22 | 8%raw 3% | 0% – 56% | 1 / 2 |
| @ PHI W | 31–17 | +11.0fav 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.12 | -0.15 → -0.22 | +0.34 | 98%raw 97% | 44% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| SF L | 17–22 | -12.0fav 7.0 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.16 → +0.18 | -0.11 | 22%raw 24% | 2% – 62% | 3 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 22–17 | +12.0dog 7.0 | +0.16 → +0.22 | +0.08 → -0.05 | +0.27 | 95%raw 76% | 38% – 98% | 1 / 3 |
| LAC L | 17–31 | -8.5dog 5.5 | +0.05 → +0.08 | +0.26 → +0.18 | -0.10 | 25%raw 5% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 31–17 | +8.5fav 5.5 | +0.26 → +0.24 | +0.05 → +0.07 | +0.17 | 87%raw 95% | 53% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| BUF L | 25–29 | -11.5fav 7.5 | +0.16 → +0.20 | +0.18 → +0.28 | -0.08 | 29%raw 44% | 4% – 65% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NE W | 29–25 | +11.5dog 7.5 | +0.18 → +0.21 | +0.16 → +0.06 | +0.16 | 85%raw 56% | 35% – 96% | 1 / 2 |
| JAX W | 31–24 | +9.5dog 2.5 | -0.04 → +0.01 | -0.14 → -0.14 | +0.15 | 84%raw 79% | 41% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 24–31 | -9.5fav 2.5 | -0.14 → -0.14 | -0.04 → -0.03 | -0.12 | 21%raw 21% | 2% – 59% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI L | 10–20 | -0.5dog 9.5 | -0.22 → -0.27 | +0.02 → +0.00 | -0.28 | 4%raw 4% | 0% – 51% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SEA W | 20–10 | +0.5fav 9.5 | +0.02 → -0.05 | -0.22 → -0.17 | +0.12 | 80%raw 96% | 49% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| PIT W | 24–17 | +10.5dog 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.04 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.12 | 80%raw 84% | 13% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LA L | 17–24 | -10.5fav 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.06 | +0.06 → +0.09 | -0.15 | 16%raw 16% | 1% – 87% | 1 / 0 |
| CLE W | 39–38 | -2.5fav 3.5 | -0.15 → -0.16 | -0.05 → -0.01 | -0.15 | 16%raw 20% | 10% – 93% | 2 / 4 |
| @ IND L | 38–39 | +2.5dog 3.5 | -0.05 → +0.02 | -0.15 → -0.09 | +0.11 | 78%raw 80% | 7% – 90% | 4 / 2 |
| ATL W | 16–13 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.05 | -0.13 → -0.14 | +0.09 | 73%raw 76% | 37% – 87% | 3 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 13–16 | -6.0fav 3.0 | -0.13 → -0.14 | -0.05 → -0.01 | -0.13 | 19%raw 24% | 13% – 63% | 2 / 3 |
| WAS L | 7–14 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.23 → -0.26 | -0.05 → +0.01 | -0.27 | 5%raw 8% | 2% – 59% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 14–7 | +10.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.10 | -0.23 → -0.17 | +0.07 | 68%raw 92% | 41% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| GB L | 17–19 | -0.5dog 1.5 | +0.13 → +0.12 | +0.09 → +0.14 | -0.01 | 47%raw 64% | 7% – 51% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 19–17 | +0.5fav 1.5 | +0.09 → +0.06 | +0.13 → +0.08 | -0.01 | 46%raw 36% | 49% – 93% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DET | 27 | +0.892 | +0.936 | -0.044 | +24.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +11.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 43 | +0.521 | +0.519 | +0.002 | +22.4 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.45 | +12.7 |
| Mac Jones | NE | BUF | 31 | +0.471 | +0.427 | +0.044 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.66 | +9.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | SF | 44 | +0.373 | +0.297 | +0.077 | +16.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.49 | +9.5 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | MIN | 30 | +0.274 | +0.282 | -0.008 | +8.2 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.01 | +1.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | TB | 26 | +0.251 | +0.272 | -0.020 | +6.5 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 1 | -3.1 | +0.30 | +15.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 42 | +0.245 | +0.204 | +0.040 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.18 | +6.7 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DEN | 31 | +0.230 | +0.244 | -0.014 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.24 | +3.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NO | 29 | +0.221 | +0.158 | +0.063 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -3.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | 26 | +0.202 | +0.280 | -0.078 | +5.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.30 | +12.2 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | LV | 30 | +0.160 | +0.184 | -0.023 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.11 | -1.4 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | CHI | 14 | +0.156 | +0.218 | -0.062 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +10.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | CLE | 27 | +0.134 | +0.027 | +0.107 | +3.6 | 1 / 3 | -19.4 | 4 | -15.3 | +0.13 | +0.4 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | GB | 30 | +0.131 | +0.137 | -0.006 | +3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.24 | +15.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | WAS | 33 | +0.086 | +0.149 | -0.063 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | +0.14 | +0.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 35 | +0.075 | +0.015 | +0.060 | +2.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 5 | -8.5 | +0.02 | -3.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | MIA | 34 | +0.041 | +0.064 | -0.023 | +1.4 | 1 / 1 | -12.9 | 3 | -6.6 | +0.04 | +10.2 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | LA | 27 | +0.003 | +0.024 | -0.021 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.01 | +4.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ATL | 45 | -0.024 | +0.013 | -0.037 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.34 | -1.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | PIT | 32 | -0.090 | -0.079 | -0.011 | -2.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.3 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.01 | -19.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | PHI | 35 | -0.112 | -0.110 | -0.002 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.04 | +6.3 |
| PJ Walker | CLE | IND | 33 | -0.116 | -0.098 | -0.018 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.03 | -18.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | BAL | 59 | -0.155 | -0.226 | +0.070 | -9.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.08 | -1.8 |
| Derek Carr | NO | JAX | 57 | -0.291 | -0.277 | -0.014 | -16.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.33 | -7.4 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | NYG | 48 | -0.315 | -0.306 | -0.009 | -15.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 6 | -10.4 | -0.42 | -3.2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | SEA | 37 | -0.394 | -0.334 | -0.060 | -14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.20 | -10.9 |
| Brian Hoyer | LV | CHI | 33 | -0.472 | -0.410 | -0.062 | -15.6 | 2 / 0 | -12.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.12 | -14.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.