Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN L | 20–70 | -44.0dog 6.0 | -0.27 → -0.27 | +0.66 → +0.61 | -0.88 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 70–20 | +44.0fav 6.0 | +0.66 → +0.66 | -0.27 → -0.23 | +0.90 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| BUF W | 37–3 | +28.5fav 5.5 | +0.22 → +0.17 | -0.60 → -0.55 | +0.72 | 100%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| @ WAS L | 3–37 | -28.5dog 5.5 | -0.60 → -0.58 | +0.22 → +0.12 | -0.70 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 5 / 1 |
| CHI L | 10–41 | -18.0dog 13.0 | -0.30 → -0.28 | +0.24 → +0.16 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 2 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 41–10 | +18.0fav 13.0 | +0.24 → +0.22 | -0.30 → -0.29 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| TEN L | 3–27 | -20.5dog 3.5 | -0.44 → -0.38 | +0.02 → +0.09 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE W | 27–3 | +20.5fav 3.5 | +0.02 → +0.00 | -0.44 → -0.42 | +0.42 | 99%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| DAL L | 16–28 | -23.5fav 11.5 | +0.06 → -0.01 | +0.26 → +0.32 | -0.33 | 2%raw 6% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI W | 28–16 | +23.5dog 11.5 | +0.26 → +0.32 | +0.06 → -0.01 | +0.34 | 98%raw 94% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| PHI W | 25–11 | +8.0fav 6.0 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.23 → -0.24 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 11–25 | -8.0dog 6.0 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.09 → +0.03 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 2 |
| NYG L | 12–30 | -7.5dog 10.5 | -0.22 → -0.17 | +0.19 → +0.06 | -0.23 | 7%raw 0% | 0% – 52% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 30–12 | +7.5fav 10.5 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.22 → -0.16 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 48% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NE W | 15–10 | +2.5fav 2.5 | -0.01 → +0.06 | -0.37 → -0.24 | +0.30 | 97%raw 99% | 45% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NYJ L | 10–15 | -2.5dog 2.5 | -0.37 → -0.34 | -0.01 → +0.09 | -0.44 | 1%raw 1% | 2% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| ATL L | 6–20 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.34 → -0.38 | -0.02 → -0.10 | -0.28 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 46% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 20–6 | +11.0fav 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.02 | -0.34 → -0.31 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| HOU W | 37–17 | +27.5dog 7.5 | +0.22 → +0.23 | -0.05 → -0.04 | +0.27 | 95%raw 98% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 17–37 | -27.5fav 7.5 | -0.05 → -0.04 | +0.22 → +0.26 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| LAC W | 28–24 | +5.0dog 1.0 | +0.20 → +0.19 | -0.00 → +0.01 | +0.18 | 88%raw 93% | 25% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ MIN L | 24–28 | -5.0fav 1.0 | -0.00 → -0.03 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.25 | 6%raw 7% | 3% – 75% | 2 / 1 |
| PIT W | 23–18 | +8.0dog 3.0 | +0.02 → +0.01 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.14 | 83%raw 92% | 22% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ LV L | 18–23 | -8.0fav 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.17 | +0.02 → +0.04 | -0.21 | 9%raw 8% | 1% – 78% | 3 / 0 |
| IND W | 22–19 | +10.5dog 7.5 | -0.15 → -0.09 | -0.14 → -0.20 | +0.11 | 78%raw 47% | 10% – 76% | 0 / 2 |
| @ BAL L | 19–22 | -10.5fav 7.5 | -0.14 → -0.15 | -0.15 → -0.12 | -0.03 | 40%raw 53% | 24% – 90% | 2 / 0 |
| NO L | 17–18 | -2.5fav 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.09 | -0.02 → -0.09 | -0.00 | 50%raw 40% | 11% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 18–17 | +2.5dog 1.5 | -0.02 → +0.03 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.08 | 71%raw 60% | 2% – 89% | 1 / 0 |
| CAR L | 27–37 | -5.0dog 5.0 | +0.05 → -0.01 | +0.20 → +0.18 | -0.19 | 11%raw 11% | 0% – 69% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 37–27 | +5.0fav 5.0 | +0.20 → +0.18 | +0.05 → +0.14 | +0.04 | 61%raw 89% | 31% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| LA L | 16–19 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.13 → -0.16 | -0.10 → -0.13 | -0.03 | 42%raw 39% | 3% – 66% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 19–16 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.13 → -0.15 | +0.03 | 59%raw 61% | 34% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | DEN | 26 | +1.021 | +1.014 | +0.006 | +26.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +16.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CHI | 33 | +0.587 | +0.634 | -0.047 | +19.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +8.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | 30 | +0.483 | +0.478 | +0.005 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +6.1 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | MIN | 48 | +0.446 | +0.448 | -0.002 | +21.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.97 | +14.7 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | NYG | 39 | +0.430 | +0.422 | +0.008 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.34 | +2.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | TEN | 36 | +0.314 | +0.347 | -0.034 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.01 | +19.5 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 29 | +0.277 | +0.188 | +0.090 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -4.9 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | DAL | 24 | +0.185 | +0.151 | +0.035 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.08 | +10.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | LV | 29 | +0.182 | +0.204 | -0.022 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.14 | -10.1 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | CAR | 39 | +0.164 | +0.162 | +0.001 | +6.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.02 | +3.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | WAS | 32 | +0.105 | +0.163 | -0.058 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -3.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 40 | +0.070 | +0.055 | +0.015 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +1.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | PHI | 28 | +0.059 | +0.058 | +0.002 | +1.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.24 | -2.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | ATL | 33 | +0.046 | +0.082 | -0.037 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +3.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | MIA | 39 | +0.032 | +0.057 | -0.025 | +1.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.01 | +3.9 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | SEA | 61 | +0.025 | +0.075 | -0.050 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.9 | +0.15 | -5.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TB | 38 | +0.020 | +0.046 | -0.026 | +0.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.03 | +1.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | LAC | 54 | +0.015 | +0.026 | -0.011 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.37 | +0.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | NO | 46 | +0.013 | -0.042 | +0.055 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.14 | -7.6 |
| Derek Carr | NO | GB | 21 | -0.008 | +0.004 | -0.011 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.7 | +0.04 | +9.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | BAL | 49 | -0.100 | -0.172 | +0.072 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.7 | -0.56 | -3.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | LA | 50 | -0.155 | -0.131 | -0.024 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.11 | -12.6 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | GB | 17 | -0.160 | -0.148 | -0.011 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.03 | -5.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | PIT | 49 | -0.162 | -0.149 | -0.013 | -8.0 | 3 / 0 | -9.5 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.15 | -4.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | ARI | 42 | -0.175 | -0.087 | -0.088 | -7.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.10 | -3.3 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | SF | 35 | -0.198 | -0.261 | +0.063 | -6.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.11 | +0.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | IND | 35 | -0.221 | -0.207 | -0.014 | -7.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 4 | -9.1 | -0.35 | +0.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CIN | 39 | -0.233 | -0.216 | -0.018 | -9.1 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 6 | -8.6 | -0.38 | -6.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | CLE | 30 | -0.376 | -0.468 | +0.091 | -11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.1 | -0.20 | -5.9 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 38 | -0.377 | -0.401 | +0.024 | -14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.82 | -5.8 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | DET | 45 | -0.395 | -0.326 | -0.069 | -17.8 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 7 | -12.4 | -0.22 | -14.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | KC | 25 | -0.482 | -0.530 | +0.048 | -12.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -5.8 | -0.14 | +0.2 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | BUF | 38 | -0.677 | -0.696 | +0.019 | -25.7 | 4 / 0 | -17.3 | 9 | -11.1 | -0.31 | +0.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.