Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
HOU L	10–34	-14.0dog 10.0	-0.22 → -0.16	+0.22 → +0.17	-0.33	2%raw 0%	0% – 55%	0 / 0
@ BAL W	34–10	+14.0fav 10.0	+0.22 → +0.24	-0.22 → -0.19	+0.43	99%raw 100%	45% – 100%	0 / 0
GB L	21–24	+7.5dog 10.5	-0.05 → -0.00	+0.17 → +0.04	-0.04	39%raw 5%	3% – 84%	2 / 0
@ SF W	24–21	-7.5fav 10.5	+0.17 → +0.14	-0.05 → -0.11	+0.26	95%raw 95%	16% – 97%	0 / 2
KC W	27–24	+5.5dog 2.5	+0.24 → +0.28	+0.14 → +0.04	+0.24	94%raw 80%	30% – 95%	1 / 0
@ BUF L	24–27	-5.5fav 2.5	+0.14 → +0.18	+0.24 → +0.17	+0.01	53%raw 20%	5% – 70%	0 / 1
TB L	23–31	-2.0dog 6.0	+0.08 → +0.05	+0.19 → +0.11	-0.06	33%raw 19%	1% – 54%	2 / 0
@ DET W	31–23	+2.0fav 6.0	+0.19 → +0.19	+0.08 → +0.08	+0.11	78%raw 81%	46% – 99%	0 / 2

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Patrick Mahomes	KC	BUF	23	+0.660	+0.611	+0.049	+15.2	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.25	+18.2
Josh Allen	BUF	KC	39	+0.212	+0.148	+0.064	+8.3	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.35	-0.5
Lamar Jackson	BAL	HOU	25	+0.179	+0.156	+0.023	+4.5	0 / 0	+0.0	3	-2.3	+0.11	+11.4
Brock Purdy	SF	GB	39	+0.178	+0.184	-0.006	+6.9	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-2.1	+0.38	-4.8
Jared Goff	DET	TB	45	+0.157	+0.180	-0.024	+7.0	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.5	+0.29	-0.8
Jordan Love	GB	SF	35	+0.066	-0.004	+0.069	+2.3	2 / 0	-7.0	0	+0.0	-0.19	-1.5
Baker Mayfield	TB	DET	46	+0.025	+0.084	-0.059	+1.2	2 / 0	-7.4	4	-8.1	+0.19	-2.8
C.J. Stroud	HOU	BAL	33	-0.058	-0.131	+0.072	-1.9	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.06	-6.7

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.