Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ L | 10–30 | -11.5dog 8.5 | -0.58 → -0.55 | +0.04 → -0.03 | -0.52 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 4 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 30–10 | +11.5fav 8.5 | +0.04 → +0.11 | -0.58 → -0.46 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| LV L | 10–38 | -20.5dog 7.5 | -0.26 → -0.24 | +0.31 → +0.21 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 66% | 3 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 38–10 | +20.5fav 7.5 | +0.31 → +0.31 | -0.26 → -0.23 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 34% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| KC W | 17–9 | +4.5fav 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.15 | -0.34 → -0.33 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ JAX L | 9–17 | -4.5dog 3.5 | -0.34 → -0.31 | +0.14 → +0.07 | -0.38 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 2 |
| CHI L | 17–27 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.17 | +0.23 → +0.23 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 27–17 | +7.5fav 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.22 | -0.16 → -0.15 | +0.36 | 98%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| SEA W | 37–31 | +10.5dog 4.5 | +0.24 → +0.21 | -0.04 → -0.13 | +0.34 | 98%raw 98% | 16% – 93% | 0 / 3 |
| @ DET L | 31–37 | -10.5fav 4.5 | -0.04 → -0.10 | +0.24 → +0.23 | -0.33 | 2%raw 2% | 7% – 84% | 3 / 0 |
| IND W | 31–20 | +10.0fav 1.0 | +0.26 → +0.27 | -0.02 → +0.02 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 20–31 | -10.0dog 1.0 | -0.02 → -0.02 | +0.26 → +0.31 | -0.33 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| MIA W | 24–17 | +5.0fav 2.0 | +0.20 → +0.25 | -0.08 → +0.02 | +0.23 | 93%raw 98% | 40% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 17–24 | -5.0dog 2.0 | -0.08 → -0.08 | +0.20 → +0.14 | -0.21 | 8%raw 2% | 1% – 60% | 2 / 1 |
| BAL W | 27–24 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.24 → +0.23 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.19 | 89%raw 92% | 38% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CIN L | 24–27 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.13 | +0.24 → +0.19 | -0.06 | 33%raw 8% | 4% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| SF W | 30–23 | -0.5fav 7.5 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.04 → -0.06 | +0.19 | 89%raw 92% | 23% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 23–30 | +0.5dog 7.5 | -0.04 → +0.00 | +0.14 → +0.01 | -0.00 | 49%raw 8% | 1% – 77% | 2 / 0 |
| CLE L | 22–26 | -6.5fav 2.5 | -0.24 → -0.24 | -0.38 → -0.37 | +0.12 | 80%raw 87% | 2% – 75% | 4 / 2 |
| @ PIT W | 26–22 | +6.5dog 2.5 | -0.38 → -0.32 | -0.24 → -0.18 | -0.14 | 18%raw 13% | 25% – 98% | 2 / 4 |
| NO W | 20–17 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.17 → -0.08 | +0.10 | 75%raw 94% | 32% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 17–20 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.17 → -0.12 | +0.04 → +0.05 | -0.17 | 14%raw 6% | 2% – 68% | 1 / 1 |
| GB L | 24–25 | +2.0dog 3.0 | +0.05 → +0.05 | +0.12 → +0.16 | -0.11 | 23%raw 30% | 6% – 89% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 25–24 | -2.0fav 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.09 | +0.05 → -0.01 | +0.10 | 74%raw 70% | 11% – 94% | 1 / 0 |
| MIN L | 28–34 | +0.0dog 6.0 | +0.08 → +0.06 | +0.14 → +0.08 | -0.02 | 44%raw 30% | 1% – 61% | 3 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 34–28 | +0.0fav 6.0 | +0.14 → +0.13 | +0.08 → +0.10 | +0.04 | 60%raw 70% | 39% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| LAC L | 24–27 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.08 → +0.06 | +0.01 → +0.04 | +0.02 | 55%raw 71% | 13% – 81% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 27–24 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.01 → -0.01 | +0.08 → +0.10 | -0.12 | 22%raw 29% | 19% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
| WAS W | 35–33 | +6.0dog 4.0 | +0.19 → +0.18 | +0.15 → +0.20 | -0.02 | 45%raw 62% | 4% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 33–35 | -6.0fav 4.0 | +0.15 → +0.11 | +0.19 → +0.26 | -0.15 | 15%raw 38% | 1% – 96% | 2 / 0 |
| NYG W | 31–28 | -2.0fav 5.0 | +0.22 → +0.16 | +0.16 → +0.22 | -0.06 | 34%raw 69% | 4% – 92% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 28–31 | +2.0dog 5.0 | +0.16 → +0.15 | +0.22 → +0.29 | -0.15 | 16%raw 31% | 8% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | IND | HOU | 23 | +0.408 | +0.387 | +0.021 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +13.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 31 | +0.407 | +0.363 | +0.044 | +12.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.17 | +8.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | PHI | 46 | +0.391 | +0.380 | +0.011 | +18.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 2 | -7.2 | +0.01 | +8.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 33 | +0.369 | +0.376 | -0.006 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.41 | +5.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYJ | 39 | +0.351 | +0.258 | +0.093 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.20 | +11.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CHI | 34 | +0.343 | +0.390 | -0.047 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.54 | +15.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LV | 39 | +0.318 | +0.339 | -0.021 | +12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.12 | +15.1 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | DET | 41 | +0.300 | +0.353 | -0.054 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.79 | +15.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | JAX | 42 | +0.252 | +0.251 | +0.000 | +10.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.20 | +3.8 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | NYG | 31 | +0.245 | +0.240 | +0.005 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +4.7 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | HOU | 10 | +0.194 | +0.173 | +0.021 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -10.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | TEN | 45 | +0.193 | +0.229 | -0.036 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | +0.12 | +7.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | SEA | 37 | +0.174 | +0.220 | -0.046 | +6.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.02 | +13.1 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | DEN | 43 | +0.152 | +0.169 | -0.016 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.8 | +0.21 | +8.9 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 51 | +0.140 | +0.149 | -0.008 | +7.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 6 | -13.0 | -0.05 | +1.6 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | ARI | 40 | +0.124 | +0.205 | -0.081 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 3 | -1.9 | +0.44 | +6.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 42 | +0.114 | +0.037 | +0.077 | +4.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.03 | +2.4 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | LA | 26 | +0.108 | +0.125 | -0.018 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +1.7 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | GB | 33 | +0.087 | +0.095 | -0.007 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.18 | -4.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | ATL | 26 | +0.068 | +0.101 | -0.033 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.16 | -11.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | LAC | 29 | +0.038 | +0.050 | -0.012 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -11.7 | +0.37 | +16.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | MIN | 27 | +0.027 | +0.041 | -0.014 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 4 | -4.8 | -0.08 | +13.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | WAS | 39 | -0.002 | +0.062 | -0.064 | -0.1 | 1 / 1 | -7.9 | 7 | -12.7 | -0.22 | +2.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 55 | -0.031 | -0.099 | +0.067 | -1.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.08 | -9.8 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | BUF | 24 | -0.051 | -0.084 | +0.032 | -1.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | +3.1 |
| Derek Carr | NO | CAR | 40 | -0.058 | -0.055 | -0.004 | -2.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.04 | -2.0 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 46 | -0.078 | -0.052 | -0.026 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.35 | +7.4 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | CLE | 32 | -0.146 | -0.243 | +0.097 | -4.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.37 | -15.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | KC | 45 | -0.228 | -0.281 | +0.053 | -10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | -0.40 | -12.7 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NO | 38 | -0.247 | -0.297 | +0.050 | -9.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 4 | -8.3 | -0.59 | +3.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | TB | 35 | -0.279 | -0.246 | -0.033 | -9.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 6 | -6.9 | -0.16 | -10.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | PIT | 46 | -0.364 | -0.347 | -0.018 | -16.8 | 1 / 1 | -15.0 | 6 | -13.9 | -1.02 | -7.5 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | DAL | 29 | -0.616 | -0.634 | +0.018 | -17.9 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.03 | -18.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.