Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF W | 34–3 | +28.0fav 3.0 | +0.32 → +0.33 | -0.47 → -0.47 | +0.80 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ JAX L | 3–34 | -28.0dog 3.0 | -0.47 → -0.44 | +0.32 → +0.20 | -0.63 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 4 / 0 |
| NYG L | 17–49 | -14.5dog 17.5 | -0.25 → -0.21 | +0.31 → +0.24 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DAL W | 49–17 | +14.5fav 17.5 | +0.31 → +0.30 | -0.25 → -0.19 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| CLE W | 33–31 | +8.0dog 6.0 | +0.07 → +0.14 | -0.17 → -0.23 | +0.37 | 98%raw 97% | 3% – 67% | 1 / 2 |
| @ BAL L | 31–33 | -8.0fav 6.0 | -0.17 → -0.10 | +0.07 → +0.14 | -0.24 | 6%raw 3% | 33% – 97% | 2 / 1 |
| TEN L | 6–20 | -11.5dog 2.5 | -0.27 → -0.28 | +0.05 → +0.05 | -0.33 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 20–6 | +11.5fav 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.03 | -0.27 → -0.25 | +0.28 | 96%raw 99% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NO L | 19–27 | -11.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.10 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.22 | 8%raw 7% | 1% – 54% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 27–19 | +11.0dog 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.16 | -0.09 → -0.08 | +0.24 | 94%raw 93% | 46% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN W | 24–22 | +9.5dog 7.5 | +0.01 → +0.04 | -0.08 → -0.19 | +0.24 | 93%raw 79% | 38% – 84% | 1 / 4 |
| @ BUF L | 22–24 | -9.5fav 7.5 | -0.08 → -0.10 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.15 | 15%raw 21% | 16% – 62% | 4 / 1 |
| DET W | 41–38 | +0.5fav 2.5 | +0.45 → +0.43 | +0.20 → +0.23 | +0.21 | 91%raw 97% | 44% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC L | 38–41 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.20 → +0.17 | +0.45 → +0.38 | -0.20 | 9%raw 3% | 14% – 56% | 1 / 0 |
| HOU W | 30–27 | +8.5dog 5.5 | +0.10 → +0.08 | +0.00 → -0.03 | +0.11 | 77%raw 80% | 23% – 98% | 3 / 2 |
| @ CIN L | 27–30 | -8.5fav 5.5 | +0.00 → +0.01 | +0.10 → +0.14 | -0.13 | 19%raw 20% | 2% – 77% | 2 / 3 |
| NYJ L | 12–16 | -5.0fav 1.0 | -0.13 → -0.14 | -0.18 → -0.15 | +0.01 | 52%raw 67% | 4% – 80% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LV W | 16–12 | +5.0dog 1.0 | -0.18 → -0.13 | -0.13 → +0.01 | -0.13 | 18%raw 33% | 20% – 96% | 2 / 1 |
| GB L | 19–23 | -1.0dog 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.00 | 50%raw 57% | 6% – 61% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 23–19 | +1.0fav 3.0 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.06 → +0.00 | +0.01 | 52%raw 43% | 39% – 94% | 0 / 2 |
| ATL L | 23–25 | -4.0fav 2.0 | -0.02 → -0.09 | +0.01 → +0.06 | -0.15 | 16%raw 40% | 18% – 75% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ARI W | 25–23 | +4.0dog 2.0 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.01 | 47%raw 60% | 25% – 82% | 1 / 0 |
| WAS L | 26–29 | +3.0dog 6.0 | +0.11 → +0.06 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.02 | 44%raw 54% | 9% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 29–26 | -3.0fav 6.0 | +0.10 → +0.05 | +0.11 → +0.18 | -0.13 | 19%raw 46% | 37% – 91% | 0 / 1 |
| IND W | 10–6 | +3.0fav 1.0 | -0.02 → +0.02 | +0.00 → +0.10 | -0.08 | 29%raw 44% | 34% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 6–10 | -3.0dog 1.0 | +0.00 → -0.00 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.03 | 43%raw 56% | 3% – 66% | 2 / 1 |
| CAR L | 13–16 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.16 | -0.06 → -0.04 | -0.13 | 19%raw 25% | 3% – 74% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 16–13 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.06 → -0.08 | -0.14 → -0.05 | -0.03 | 41%raw 75% | 26% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | JAX | 28 | +0.616 | +0.611 | +0.005 | +17.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.18 | +9.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 35 | +0.470 | +0.461 | +0.009 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +13.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | LAC | 33 | +0.447 | +0.449 | -0.002 | +14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.90 | +1.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DET | 40 | +0.313 | +0.365 | -0.051 | +12.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.87 | -2.2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | NO | 35 | +0.299 | +0.238 | +0.062 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.30 | +1.9 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | BUF | 33 | +0.214 | +0.174 | +0.039 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | +0.33 | +13.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | TEN | 32 | +0.211 | +0.246 | -0.035 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.7 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.23 | +2.6 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | SEA | 47 | +0.202 | +0.248 | -0.046 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.35 | -2.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | PIT | 40 | +0.126 | +0.133 | -0.007 | +5.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.22 | -4.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | NE | 28 | +0.123 | +0.086 | +0.037 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | +2.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | CIN | 40 | +0.118 | +0.128 | -0.010 | +4.7 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 1 | -3.7 | +0.54 | +0.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | HOU | 44 | +0.088 | +0.073 | +0.015 | +3.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 4 | -7.7 | +0.13 | +4.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | BAL | 38 | +0.071 | -0.005 | +0.076 | +2.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.8 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.14 | +1.4 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | WAS | 47 | +0.039 | +0.102 | -0.063 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.42 | +3.1 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | CAR | 33 | -0.065 | -0.061 | -0.004 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -4.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 26 | -0.129 | -0.227 | +0.097 | -3.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.30 | -7.4 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | LV | 41 | -0.130 | -0.101 | -0.030 | -5.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.42 | -6.9 |
| Derek Carr | NO | MIN | 20 | -0.134 | -0.116 | -0.019 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.14 | -0.4 |
| Mac Jones | NE | IND | 25 | -0.159 | -0.145 | -0.014 | -4.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.20 | +5.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | DEN | 27 | -0.171 | -0.148 | -0.023 | -4.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.23 | -5.3 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | MIN | 26 | -0.194 | -0.175 | -0.019 | -5.0 | 2 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.15 | -5.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | ATL | 35 | -0.226 | -0.184 | -0.042 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.17 | -8.2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | NYJ | 30 | -0.250 | -0.327 | +0.077 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.17 | -8.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | GB | 24 | -0.251 | -0.237 | -0.014 | -6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.17 | -6.9 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | CHI | 41 | -0.259 | -0.201 | -0.057 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.0 | -0.30 | -8.0 |
| Will Levis | TEN | TB | 43 | -0.303 | -0.269 | -0.034 | -13.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.19 | -10.5 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | DAL | 32 | -0.348 | -0.372 | +0.024 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 5 | -7.5 | -0.15 | -12.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | SF | 34 | -0.452 | -0.510 | +0.058 | -15.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.6 | 5 | -12.0 | -0.25 | -6.8 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ATL | ARI | 18 | -0.508 | -0.418 | -0.089 | -9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.31 | -10.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.