Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB W | 48–32 | +23.0dog 7.0 | +0.48 → +0.54 | +0.03 → -0.04 | +0.58 | 100%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DAL L | 32–48 | -23.0fav 7.0 | +0.03 → +0.00 | +0.48 → +0.43 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 2 / 0 |
| CLE L | 14–45 | -33.5fav 2.5 | -0.31 → -0.31 | +0.25 → +0.29 | -0.60 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 45–14 | +33.5dog 2.5 | +0.25 → +0.33 | -0.31 → -0.25 | +0.58 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| PHI L | 9–32 | -25.5fav 2.5 | -0.15 → -0.16 | +0.17 → +0.17 | -0.33 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 47% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 32–9 | +25.5dog 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.15 | -0.15 → -0.22 | +0.38 | 99%raw 99% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| MIA L | 7–26 | -14.5dog 4.5 | -0.22 → -0.19 | +0.05 → -0.03 | -0.16 | 14%raw 3% | 0% – 50% | 1 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 26–7 | +14.5fav 4.5 | +0.05 → +0.06 | -0.22 → -0.29 | +0.35 | 98%raw 97% | 50% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 17–31 | -4.0dog 10.0 | -0.14 → -0.12 | +0.19 → +0.09 | -0.21 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 46% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 31–17 | +4.0fav 10.0 | +0.19 → +0.20 | -0.14 → -0.12 | +0.33 | 97%raw 99% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LA L | 23–24 | +2.5dog 3.5 | +0.29 → +0.26 | +0.19 → +0.12 | +0.15 | 84%raw 78% | 11% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 24–23 | -2.5fav 3.5 | +0.19 → +0.18 | +0.29 → +0.28 | -0.10 | 25%raw 22% | 43% – 89% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | DAL | 21 | +1.199 | +1.140 | +0.059 | +25.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +13.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | CLE | 21 | +0.806 | +0.689 | +0.117 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | +7.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DET | 38 | +0.439 | +0.489 | -0.049 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.52 | +6.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | LA | 30 | +0.362 | +0.374 | -0.011 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.36 | +10.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | PHI | 40 | +0.297 | +0.288 | +0.009 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.9 | +0.08 | -4.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | MIA | 41 | +0.179 | +0.197 | -0.018 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -1.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | PIT | 32 | +0.112 | +0.115 | -0.003 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.10 | +0.5 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | BUF | 39 | +0.014 | -0.020 | +0.034 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.16 | -5.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | GB | 64 | -0.062 | -0.053 | -0.009 | -4.0 | 2 / 0 | -14.2 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.19 | +2.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TB | 38 | -0.111 | -0.081 | -0.030 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.04 | +9.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | KC | 41 | -0.287 | -0.340 | +0.053 | -11.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.22 | -16.1 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | HOU | 50 | -0.349 | -0.355 | +0.006 | -17.4 | 2 / 0 | -16.7 | 4 | -7.3 | -0.03 | +5.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.