Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA W | 45–15 | +21.5fav 8.5 | +0.41 → +0.37 | -0.20 → -0.14 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 15–45 | -21.5dog 8.5 | -0.20 → -0.20 | +0.41 → +0.35 | -0.55 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| SF W | 42–19 | +20.0fav 3.0 | +0.53 → +0.52 | +0.07 → +0.01 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 25% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 19–42 | -20.0dog 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.13 | +0.53 → +0.41 | -0.28 | 4%raw 0% | 0% – 75% | 0 / 0 |
| DET W | 33–28 | +1.0fav 4.0 | +0.17 → +0.23 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.27 | 95%raw 95% | 40% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NO L | 28–33 | -1.0dog 4.0 | -0.04 → -0.07 | +0.17 → +0.10 | -0.17 | 13%raw 5% | 2% – 60% | 2 / 0 |
| CLE L | 19–36 | -13.5dog 3.5 | -0.10 → -0.12 | +0.12 → +0.10 | -0.22 | 8%raw 5% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 36–19 | +13.5fav 3.5 | +0.12 → +0.19 | -0.10 → -0.03 | +0.23 | 93%raw 95% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| KC L | 19–27 | -13.5fav 5.5 | +0.19 → +0.17 | +0.30 → +0.25 | -0.08 | 28%raw 18% | 3% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 27–19 | +13.5dog 5.5 | +0.30 → +0.34 | +0.19 → +0.12 | +0.23 | 93%raw 82% | 55% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| DEN L | 17–22 | -1.5dog 3.5 | -0.22 → -0.21 | -0.04 → -0.00 | -0.21 | 9%raw 8% | 3% – 51% | 3 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 22–17 | +1.5fav 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | -0.22 → -0.18 | +0.13 | 81%raw 92% | 49% – 97% | 0 / 3 |
| ARI W | 24–10 | +20.0dog 6.0 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.09 → -0.07 | +0.11 | 78%raw 85% | 27% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PIT L | 10–24 | -20.0fav 6.0 | -0.09 → -0.17 | +0.04 → +0.09 | -0.25 | 5%raw 15% | 0% – 73% | 1 / 0 |
| SEA L | 35–41 | +3.5dog 9.5 | +0.13 → +0.19 | +0.17 → +0.10 | +0.09 | 74%raw 39% | 1% – 82% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 41–35 | -3.5fav 9.5 | +0.17 → +0.12 | +0.13 → +0.12 | +0.00 | 50%raw 61% | 18% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| LAC W | 6–0 | +1.5fav 4.5 | -0.15 → -0.11 | -0.27 → -0.18 | +0.07 | 69%raw 85% | 36% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 0–6 | -1.5dog 4.5 | -0.27 → -0.31 | -0.15 → -0.13 | -0.18 | 12%raw 15% | 1% – 64% | 1 / 0 |
| ATL W | 13–8 | +3.0fav 2.0 | -0.23 → -0.17 | -0.35 → -0.22 | +0.05 | 63%raw 84% | 25% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYJ L | 8–13 | -3.0dog 2.0 | -0.35 → -0.37 | -0.23 → -0.20 | -0.17 | 13%raw 16% | 1% – 75% | 3 / 0 |
| CIN W | 34–31 | +13.0dog 10.0 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.19 → +0.21 | -0.01 | 48%raw 53% | 17% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| @ JAX L | 31–34 | -13.0fav 10.0 | +0.19 → +0.17 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.00 | 49%raw 47% | 26% – 83% | 0 / 1 |
| IND W | 31–28 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.03 → +0.01 | +0.03 → +0.06 | -0.05 | 37%raw 51% | 17% – 91% | 1 / 2 |
| @ TEN L | 28–31 | -1.5dog 1.5 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.03 → +0.08 | -0.05 | 37%raw 49% | 9% – 83% | 2 / 1 |
| CAR L | 18–21 | +1.0dog 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.05 → -0.05 | -0.06 | 35%raw 32% | 2% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 21–18 | -1.0fav 4.0 | -0.05 → -0.07 | -0.10 → -0.01 | -0.06 | 35%raw 68% | 43% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | PHI | 29 | +0.790 | +0.770 | +0.020 | +22.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.42 | +6.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | WAS | 24 | +0.772 | +0.820 | -0.048 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | +8.5 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | JAX | 39 | +0.500 | +0.500 | +0.000 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.69 | +19.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | KC | 38 | +0.474 | +0.405 | +0.069 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | +0.40 | +5.6 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | ARI | 17 | +0.391 | +0.472 | -0.081 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +3.0 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NO | 27 | +0.339 | +0.277 | +0.062 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.37 | -1.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | DAL | 40 | +0.333 | +0.294 | +0.039 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.33 | -7.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CIN | 31 | +0.330 | +0.338 | -0.008 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.30 | +14.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | SEA | 46 | +0.278 | +0.322 | -0.044 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.55 | +4.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | SF | 49 | +0.262 | +0.190 | +0.072 | +12.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.10 | +3.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CLE | 37 | +0.250 | +0.144 | +0.106 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | -5.1 |
| Derek Carr | NO | DET | 24 | +0.249 | +0.305 | -0.056 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.12 | +9.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | GB | 36 | +0.103 | +0.110 | -0.006 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.14 | +1.1 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NE | 37 | +0.090 | +0.054 | +0.036 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -4.2 |
| C.J. Beathard | JAX | CIN | 12 | +0.068 | +0.076 | -0.008 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | -0.11 | +19.9 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | PIT | 25 | +0.039 | +0.046 | -0.007 | +1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.11 | -8.4 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | TEN | 46 | +0.003 | +0.044 | -0.042 | +0.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.5 | 3 | -7.7 | +0.32 | -1.5 |
| Will Levis | TEN | IND | 39 | -0.007 | +0.004 | -0.011 | -0.3 | 0 / 1 | +1.9 | 6 | -3.0 | +0.05 | -12.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | DEN | 33 | -0.012 | +0.009 | -0.022 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.0 | +0.01 | -4.9 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | NYJ | 30 | -0.044 | -0.126 | +0.082 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.16 | -11.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 30 | -0.129 | -0.123 | -0.006 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.06 | -11.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | ARI | 10 | -0.129 | -0.048 | -0.081 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | +5.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 35 | -0.176 | -0.145 | -0.032 | -6.2 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.34 | -2.8 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | LA | 46 | -0.194 | -0.169 | -0.025 | -8.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.01 | -8.9 |
| Tim Boyle | NYJ | ATL | 26 | -0.226 | -0.180 | -0.046 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.11 | -7.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | HOU | 29 | -0.511 | -0.516 | +0.005 | -14.8 | 3 / 0 | -11.9 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.66 | +2.5 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | MIA | 27 | -0.516 | -0.482 | -0.034 | -13.9 | 1 / 0 | -9.3 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.27 | -8.2 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | ATL | 16 | -0.518 | -0.473 | -0.046 | -8.3 | 0 / 1 | -4.5 | 3 | -7.0 | -0.43 | -24.0 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | LAC | 30 | -0.546 | -0.524 | -0.022 | -16.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -11.2 | -0.62 | -11.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.