Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN W | 24–10 | +13.0fav 1.0 | +0.19 → +0.16 | -0.24 → -0.31 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 44% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ GB L | 10–24 | -13.0dog 1.0 | -0.24 → -0.26 | +0.19 → +0.21 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 56% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN W | 31–17 | +18.0dog 4.0 | +0.23 → +0.28 | -0.03 → -0.17 | +0.45 | 99%raw 97% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ SF L | 17–31 | -18.0fav 4.0 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.23 → +0.21 | -0.26 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 58% | 3 / 1 |
| KC L | 9–24 | -22.0fav 7.0 | -0.32 → -0.34 | -0.07 → -0.03 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 0% – 43% | 4 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 24–9 | +22.0dog 7.0 | -0.07 → -0.04 | -0.32 → -0.41 | +0.37 | 98%raw 97% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| LV L | 14–26 | -5.0dog 7.0 | -0.52 → -0.57 | -0.13 → -0.22 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 54% | 1 / 3 |
| @ DET W | 26–14 | +5.0fav 7.0 | -0.13 → -0.14 | -0.52 → -0.50 | +0.36 | 98%raw 100% | 46% – 100% | 3 / 1 |
| LA L | 20–43 | -16.5dog 6.5 | -0.16 → -0.12 | +0.16 → +0.09 | -0.21 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 51% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 43–20 | +16.5fav 6.5 | +0.16 → +0.15 | -0.16 → -0.19 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 49% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NO W | 38–27 | +9.0fav 2.0 | +0.33 → +0.34 | +0.05 → +0.09 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 20% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ IND L | 27–38 | -9.0dog 2.0 | +0.05 → +0.10 | +0.33 → +0.35 | -0.25 | 6%raw 2% | 0% – 80% | 1 / 1 |
| NE L | 17–31 | -6.5dog 7.5 | -0.19 → -0.19 | +0.08 → +0.02 | -0.21 | 9%raw 2% | 0% – 62% | 1 / 2 |
| @ MIA W | 31–17 | +6.5fav 7.5 | +0.08 → +0.13 | -0.19 → -0.09 | +0.22 | 92%raw 98% | 38% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| TB L | 18–24 | +4.0dog 10.0 | -0.07 → -0.04 | +0.10 → -0.00 | -0.04 | 38%raw 9% | 1% – 48% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 24–18 | -4.0fav 10.0 | +0.10 → +0.10 | -0.07 → -0.08 | +0.18 | 88%raw 91% | 52% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| CLE L | 20–24 | +0.0dog 4.0 | -0.09 → -0.14 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.19 | 10%raw 11% | 1% – 81% | 3 / 2 |
| @ SEA W | 24–20 | +0.0fav 4.0 | +0.07 → +0.14 | -0.09 → -0.02 | +0.17 | 87%raw 89% | 19% – 99% | 2 / 3 |
| BAL W | 31–24 | -2.5fav 9.5 | +0.03 → -0.04 | -0.20 → -0.16 | +0.12 | 79%raw 96% | 27% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 24–31 | +2.5dog 9.5 | -0.20 → -0.14 | +0.03 → -0.02 | -0.12 | 21%raw 4% | 0% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| JAX W | 20–10 | +7.5fav 2.5 | -0.11 → -0.11 | -0.24 → -0.22 | +0.11 | 78%raw 86% | 45% – 99% | 3 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 10–20 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.24 → -0.25 | -0.11 → -0.10 | -0.15 | 16%raw 14% | 1% – 55% | 2 / 3 |
| ATL L | 23–28 | -7.5fav 2.5 | -0.05 → -0.07 | +0.07 → +0.10 | -0.17 | 13%raw 17% | 1% – 62% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 28–23 | +7.5dog 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.06 | -0.05 → -0.01 | +0.08 | 70%raw 83% | 38% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| CHI L | 13–30 | -7.5dog 9.5 | -0.14 → -0.17 | -0.02 → -0.00 | -0.17 | 13%raw 16% | 0% – 53% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 30–13 | +7.5fav 9.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.14 → -0.12 | +0.08 | 70%raw 84% | 47% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| HOU L | 13–15 | -5.0fav 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.16 → -0.07 | +0.03 | 57%raw 87% | 17% – 73% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 15–13 | +5.0dog 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.15 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.17 | 13%raw 13% | 27% – 83% | 0 / 1 |
| PHI W | 38–31 | +0.0fav 7.0 | +0.18 → +0.14 | +0.07 → +0.14 | +0.00 | 51%raw 83% | 12% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 31–38 | +0.0dog 7.0 | +0.07 → +0.04 | +0.18 → +0.12 | -0.08 | 30%raw 17% | 0% – 88% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ W | 13–10 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.41 → -0.45 | -0.37 → -0.32 | -0.13 | 19%raw 36% | 3% – 95% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NYG L | 10–13 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.37 → -0.32 | -0.41 → -0.28 | -0.04 | 40%raw 64% | 5% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | GB | 33 | +0.592 | +0.591 | +0.001 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.41 | +11.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 40 | +0.539 | +0.590 | -0.051 | +21.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.75 | +15.3 |
| Derek Carr | NO | IND | 28 | +0.486 | +0.483 | +0.003 | +13.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 1 | -4.3 | +0.46 | +6.0 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | SF | 35 | +0.462 | +0.383 | +0.079 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | +0.21 | +17.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CHI | 40 | +0.381 | +0.427 | -0.046 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +6.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | LA | 34 | +0.327 | +0.341 | -0.014 | +11.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.09 | +11.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 47 | +0.310 | +0.268 | +0.042 | +14.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.24 | -0.7 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ATL | TEN | 22 | +0.230 | +0.275 | -0.045 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.00 | -1.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | PIT | 35 | +0.199 | +0.204 | -0.005 | +7.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -5.6 | +0.05 | +6.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | CLE | 38 | +0.173 | +0.069 | +0.104 | +6.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.8 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.07 | -0.4 |
| Will Levis | TEN | ATL | 31 | +0.157 | +0.192 | -0.034 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.13 | +11.5 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | PHI | 53 | +0.071 | +0.068 | +0.003 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -3.5 | -0.04 | +8.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | CAR | 27 | +0.055 | +0.055 | -0.001 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.13 | -1.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | LV | 37 | +0.036 | +0.065 | -0.029 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -11.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +1.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | TB | 42 | +0.017 | +0.043 | -0.026 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.17 | +10.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | BUF | 45 | +0.010 | -0.024 | +0.034 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.16 | -2.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | NO | 43 | +0.007 | -0.047 | +0.054 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.19 | -10.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | HOU | 37 | +0.005 | -0.009 | +0.014 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -8.1 | +0.14 | +1.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | CIN | 33 | -0.100 | -0.086 | -0.013 | -3.3 | 2 / 1 | -16.3 | 2 | -5.9 | -0.16 | +7.7 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | KC | 25 | -0.138 | -0.194 | +0.056 | -3.4 | 0 / 1 | -1.5 | 6 | -10.4 | -0.09 | +2.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | BAL | 40 | -0.171 | -0.242 | +0.071 | -6.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.1 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.27 | +2.7 |
| Jordan Love | GB | MIN | 45 | -0.197 | -0.176 | -0.021 | -8.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.19 | -4.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DAL | 24 | -0.222 | -0.247 | +0.025 | -5.3 | 1 / 0 | -8.1 | 1 | -2.6 | -0.11 | -8.3 |
| PJ Walker | CLE | SEA | 34 | -0.222 | -0.167 | -0.055 | -7.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.2 | 3 | -7.8 | -0.40 | -5.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | ARI | 31 | -0.252 | -0.161 | -0.091 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.8 | +0.04 | -0.9 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | LAC | 39 | -0.265 | -0.245 | -0.019 | -10.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.01 | -4.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | JAX | 28 | -0.272 | -0.259 | -0.014 | -7.6 | 2 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.25 | -7.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 41 | -0.294 | -0.267 | -0.027 | -12.1 | 2 / 1 | -11.6 | 3 | -7.1 | -0.24 | -4.2 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 32 | -0.319 | -0.285 | -0.033 | -10.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.8 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.15 | -0.7 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NYG | 39 | -0.387 | -0.376 | -0.011 | -15.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 4 | -12.8 | -0.30 | -16.8 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | JAX | 17 | -0.390 | -0.376 | -0.014 | -6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.15 | +7.5 |
| Brett Rypien | LA | DAL | 11 | -0.441 | -0.466 | +0.025 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.02 | -22.6 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | TEN | 17 | -0.677 | -0.632 | -0.045 | -11.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 5 | -11.1 | -0.26 | -2.8 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | DET | 27 | -0.976 | -0.895 | -0.081 | -26.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 6 | -12.5 | -0.47 | -17.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.