Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET W | 20–6 | +11.0fav 3.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | -0.24 → -0.26 | +0.41 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TB L | 6–20 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.29 | +0.15 → +0.07 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| ARI L | 9–26 | -10.0dog 7.0 | -0.26 → -0.29 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 26–9 | +10.0fav 7.0 | +0.14 → +0.07 | -0.26 → -0.22 | +0.29 | 96%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN L | 8–19 | -0.5dog 10.5 | -0.35 → -0.32 | -0.03 → -0.11 | -0.21 | 8%raw 1% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 19–8 | +0.5fav 10.5 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.35 → -0.32 | +0.28 | 96%raw 99% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| CAR L | 21–42 | -7.0dog 14.0 | -0.14 → -0.14 | +0.18 → +0.12 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 0% – 81% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIA W | 42–21 | +7.0fav 14.0 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.14 → -0.06 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 19% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| SF L | 17–19 | -11.5fav 9.5 | -0.19 → -0.13 | -0.20 → -0.14 | +0.01 | 53%raw 50% | 7% – 77% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 19–17 | +11.5dog 9.5 | -0.20 → -0.15 | -0.19 → -0.33 | +0.18 | 88%raw 50% | 23% – 93% | 2 / 1 |
| BAL W | 24–16 | +2.5fav 5.5 | +0.02 → +0.00 | -0.20 → -0.18 | +0.18 | 88%raw 95% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 16–24 | -2.5dog 5.5 | -0.20 → -0.14 | +0.02 → -0.03 | -0.10 | 24%raw 5% | 0% – 64% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL W | 20–17 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.11 → -0.09 | +0.14 | 83%raw 92% | 24% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC L | 17–20 | -1.5dog 1.5 | -0.11 → -0.06 | +0.07 → +0.00 | -0.06 | 33%raw 8% | 3% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
| MIN W | 19–13 | +3.0fav 3.0 | -0.19 → -0.22 | -0.36 → -0.35 | +0.13 | 81%raw 91% | 37% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CHI L | 13–19 | -3.0dog 3.0 | -0.36 → -0.39 | -0.19 → -0.19 | -0.20 | 10%raw 9% | 1% – 63% | 3 / 1 |
| IND L | 20–37 | -13.0dog 4.0 | -0.21 → -0.21 | -0.08 → -0.06 | -0.15 | 16%raw 14% | 0% – 58% | 4 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 37–20 | +13.0fav 4.0 | -0.08 → -0.08 | -0.21 → -0.17 | +0.09 | 74%raw 86% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| WAS W | 24–16 | +9.5dog 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.09 | 73%raw 85% | 25% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ ATL L | 16–24 | -9.5fav 1.5 | -0.16 → -0.22 | -0.03 → +0.03 | -0.25 | 6%raw 15% | 1% – 75% | 3 / 0 |
| NYG L | 9–14 | +10.5dog 15.5 | -0.16 → -0.13 | -0.02 → -0.12 | -0.01 | 48%raw 13% | 3% – 87% | 0 / 2 |
| @ BUF W | 14–9 | -10.5fav 15.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.16 → -0.10 | +0.06 | 66%raw 87% | 13% – 97% | 2 / 0 |
| NO L | 13–20 | -9.0fav 2.0 | +0.04 → +0.05 | -0.04 → +0.00 | +0.05 | 62%raw 72% | 1% – 60% | 1 / 2 |
| @ HOU W | 20–13 | +9.0dog 2.0 | -0.04 → +0.02 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.02 | 43%raw 28% | 40% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| SEA L | 13–17 | -1.0dog 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.09 | -0.10 → -0.13 | +0.04 | 61%raw 61% | 7% – 63% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 17–13 | +1.0fav 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.16 | -0.07 → -0.09 | -0.07 | 32%raw 39% | 37% – 93% | 1 / 2 |
| PHI L | 14–20 | -12.5fav 6.5 | -0.12 → -0.06 | -0.16 → -0.02 | -0.04 | 39%raw 62% | 1% – 84% | 4 / 0 |
| @ NYJ W | 20–14 | +12.5dog 6.5 | -0.16 → -0.19 | -0.12 → -0.19 | +0.00 | 51%raw 38% | 16% – 99% | 0 / 4 |
| NE L | 17–21 | -1.0dog 3.0 | -0.01 → -0.01 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.06 | 33%raw 44% | 2% – 46% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 21–17 | +1.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.01 → +0.10 | -0.04 | 38%raw 56% | 54% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CAR | 31 | +0.523 | +0.520 | +0.003 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +6.5 |
| Brian Hoyer | LV | NE | 10 | +0.517 | +0.475 | +0.042 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -1.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | TB | 47 | +0.363 | +0.381 | -0.019 | +17.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.64 | +3.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | NE | 22 | +0.275 | +0.233 | +0.042 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | -5.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | LAC | 35 | +0.187 | +0.194 | -0.007 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | +0.47 | +1.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | TEN | 31 | +0.151 | +0.189 | -0.038 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.17 | +4.9 |
| Derek Carr | NO | HOU | 52 | +0.117 | +0.100 | +0.017 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.04 | +5.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 42 | +0.092 | +0.109 | -0.017 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.09 | +6.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 25 | +0.056 | +0.140 | -0.084 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.26 | +3.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | NO | 29 | +0.043 | -0.011 | +0.054 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | +0.3 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.01 | -10.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYG | 30 | +0.040 | +0.040 | +0.000 | +1.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -2.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DAL | 38 | +0.026 | -0.005 | +0.031 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.04 | -6.1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | BUF | 37 | -0.015 | -0.048 | +0.034 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.46 | +9.4 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | ATL | 28 | -0.047 | -0.007 | -0.040 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.0 | +0.09 | +1.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYJ | 47 | -0.056 | -0.138 | +0.083 | -2.6 | 3 / 0 | -14.8 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.71 | -3.0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | CIN | 45 | -0.096 | -0.080 | -0.016 | -4.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.55 | +13.7 |
| Mac Jones | NE | LV | 36 | -0.121 | -0.089 | -0.032 | -4.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.25 | +1.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 33 | -0.125 | -0.111 | -0.013 | -4.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.01 | +6.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | SEA | 38 | -0.141 | -0.087 | -0.054 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.13 | -1.4 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | JAX | 58 | -0.212 | -0.199 | -0.013 | -12.3 | 3 / 1 | -19.2 | 3 | -8.4 | -0.17 | -4.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | PHI | 39 | -0.230 | -0.226 | -0.004 | -9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.38 | -9.0 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | WAS | 49 | -0.232 | -0.163 | -0.069 | -11.4 | 3 / 0 | -13.5 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.27 | -3.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | 33 | -0.248 | -0.187 | -0.061 | -8.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.0 | 2 | -5.4 | -0.04 | +1.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | CLE | 29 | -0.271 | -0.365 | +0.094 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.27 | -14.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | DET | 38 | -0.285 | -0.218 | -0.066 | -10.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.21 | -10.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | MIA | 42 | -0.295 | -0.261 | -0.034 | -12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.07 | +3.3 |
| PJ Walker | CLE | SF | 36 | -0.336 | -0.396 | +0.060 | -12.1 | 2 / 0 | -12.5 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.59 | -11.4 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | LA | 43 | -0.433 | -0.406 | -0.027 | -18.6 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 2 | -8.8 | -0.31 | -10.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | BAL | 18 | -0.517 | -0.584 | +0.067 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.14 | -5.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | MIN | 14 | -0.649 | -0.615 | -0.035 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.25 | -11.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | KC | 26 | -0.657 | -0.704 | +0.047 | -17.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.42 | -11.7 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | MIN | 15 | -1.141 | -1.106 | -0.035 | -17.1 | 1 / 1 | -15.0 | 1 | -10.1 | -0.52 | +3.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.