Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W | 38–10 | +15.0fav 13.0 | +0.36 → +0.32 | -0.30 → -0.24 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ WAS L | 10–38 | -15.0dog 13.0 | -0.30 → -0.26 | +0.36 → +0.30 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 3 / 1 |
| ATL L | 17–48 | -27.5dog 3.5 | -0.30 → -0.26 | +0.21 → +0.22 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 48–17 | +27.5fav 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.21 | -0.30 → -0.27 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| PHI L | 10–27 | -21.5fav 4.5 | -0.28 → -0.31 | +0.09 → +0.15 | -0.47 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 54% | 4 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 27–10 | +21.5dog 4.5 | +0.09 → +0.07 | -0.28 → -0.36 | +0.42 | 99%raw 99% | 46% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| PIT W | 17–10 | +4.0fav 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.00 | -0.29 → -0.35 | +0.35 | 98%raw 95% | 37% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BAL L | 10–17 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.29 → -0.29 | -0.07 → -0.04 | -0.25 | 6%raw 5% | 1% – 63% | 2 / 2 |
| CHI L | 9–17 | -5.5dog 2.5 | -0.10 → -0.13 | +0.24 → +0.18 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 62% | 0 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 17–9 | +5.5fav 2.5 | +0.24 → +0.22 | -0.10 → -0.07 | +0.30 | 96%raw 99% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| CLE L | 14–31 | -9.5dog 7.5 | -0.25 → -0.28 | +0.01 → -0.02 | -0.27 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 31–14 | +9.5fav 7.5 | +0.01 → +0.08 | -0.25 → -0.20 | +0.28 | 96%raw 97% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ W | 17–3 | +16.5dog 2.5 | -0.25 → -0.22 | -0.56 → -0.48 | +0.26 | 95%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NE L | 3–17 | -16.5fav 2.5 | -0.56 → -0.51 | -0.25 → -0.12 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 3 / 0 |
| JAX L | 20–28 | -11.5fav 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.13 → +0.16 | -0.24 | 6%raw 7% | 1% – 53% | 2 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 28–20 | +11.5dog 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.18 | 88%raw 93% | 47% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| MIN L | 20–30 | -6.5dog 3.5 | -0.01 → -0.05 | +0.14 → +0.06 | -0.11 | 22%raw 11% | 0% – 53% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 30–20 | +6.5fav 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.13 | -0.01 → -0.00 | +0.13 | 82%raw 89% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN L | 14–27 | -9.5dog 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | +0.13 → +0.18 | -0.23 | 7%raw 8% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 27–14 | +9.5fav 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.04 → -0.01 | +0.13 | 81%raw 92% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| BUF W | 21–14 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.04 → -0.03 | +0.11 | 77%raw 62% | 14% – 99% | 3 / 2 |
| @ MIA L | 14–21 | -4.5dog 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.07 | +0.07 → -0.03 | +0.10 | 75%raw 38% | 1% – 86% | 2 / 3 |
| LA W | 21–20 | +6.5dog 5.5 | +0.08 → +0.14 | +0.16 → +0.03 | +0.11 | 77%raw 27% | 9% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF L | 20–21 | -6.5fav 5.5 | +0.16 → +0.14 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.07 | 69%raw 73% | 8% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| SEA W | 21–20 | -1.5fav 2.5 | +0.09 → +0.02 | +0.23 → +0.29 | -0.26 | 5%raw 13% | 5% – 77% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 20–21 | +1.5dog 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.19 | +0.09 → +0.08 | +0.11 | 77%raw 87% | 23% – 95% | 0 / 0 |
| TB W | 9–0 | +4.0fav 5.0 | -0.09 → -0.12 | -0.31 → -0.23 | +0.11 | 77%raw 95% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CAR L | 0–9 | -4.0dog 5.0 | -0.31 → -0.32 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.22 | 8%raw 5% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| HOU W | 23–19 | +2.5fav 1.5 | +0.12 → +0.12 | -0.03 → +0.01 | +0.11 | 77%raw 88% | 34% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| @ IND L | 19–23 | -2.5dog 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.02 | +0.12 → +0.16 | -0.18 | 12%raw 12% | 2% – 66% | 0 / 0 |
| KC W | 13–12 | +4.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.17 | -0.23 → -0.22 | +0.05 | 63%raw 77% | 22% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LAC L | 12–13 | -4.5fav 3.5 | -0.23 → -0.21 | -0.14 → -0.23 | +0.02 | 56%raw 23% | 7% – 78% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 36 | +0.562 | +0.614 | -0.052 | +20.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +17.6 |
| Derek Carr | NO | ATL | 30 | +0.472 | +0.499 | -0.027 | +14.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.46 | +19.4 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 31 | +0.435 | +0.474 | -0.039 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.58 | +4.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 28 | +0.431 | +0.431 | -0.000 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.51 | +8.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 33 | +0.409 | +0.457 | -0.048 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.43 | +15.5 |
| Carson Wentz | LA | SF | 27 | +0.376 | +0.301 | +0.076 | +10.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.42 | +6.7 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | DEN | 32 | +0.351 | +0.365 | -0.014 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.20 | +9.6 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 33 | +0.323 | +0.330 | -0.007 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.32 | +3.2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | PHI | 33 | +0.295 | +0.289 | +0.005 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.25 | +9.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | NO | 30 | +0.282 | +0.229 | +0.053 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +3.5 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | CLE | 26 | +0.199 | +0.096 | +0.103 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.05 | +6.1 |
| Sam Darnold | SF | LA | 28 | +0.186 | +0.202 | -0.016 | +5.2 | 0 / 1 | -1.9 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.21 | +0.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | 29 | +0.149 | +0.231 | -0.082 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | -10.0 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | BAL | 23 | +0.101 | +0.025 | +0.076 | +2.3 | 0 / 1 | -1.9 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.09 | +15.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 27 | +0.082 | +0.046 | +0.035 | +2.2 | 2 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +0.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 41 | +0.074 | +0.096 | -0.022 | +3.1 | 2 / 1 | -11.1 | 3 | -7.5 | +0.33 | +18.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | JAX | 28 | +0.024 | +0.031 | -0.007 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.06 | +0.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 43 | -0.003 | +0.038 | -0.042 | -0.1 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +3.7 |
| Jarrett Stidham | DEN | LV | 39 | -0.020 | +0.009 | -0.029 | -0.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.09 | -5.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | GB | 21 | -0.071 | -0.062 | -0.009 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.8 | -0.04 | +2.9 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | DET | 48 | -0.115 | -0.054 | -0.060 | -5.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.1 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.03 | +3.0 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | HOU | 26 | -0.123 | -0.135 | +0.012 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.17 | -11.3 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | PIT | 32 | -0.160 | -0.146 | -0.014 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -13.4 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | DAL | 31 | -0.194 | -0.220 | +0.026 | -6.0 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.08 | +0.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | PHI | NYG | 23 | -0.218 | -0.207 | -0.011 | -5.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 3 | -6.3 | -0.04 | -0.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 35 | -0.235 | -0.228 | -0.007 | -8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.33 | -3.7 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | KC | 50 | -0.248 | -0.304 | +0.055 | -12.4 | 0 / 1 | -11.6 | 3 | -14.4 | -0.55 | -9.7 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 21 | -0.309 | -0.276 | -0.033 | -6.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 3 | -10.5 | -0.38 | -8.0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | KC | LAC | 31 | -0.322 | -0.304 | -0.017 | -10.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.14 | -17.8 |
| Jeff Driskel | CLE | CIN | 29 | -0.400 | -0.378 | -0.022 | -11.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.25 | -11.0 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | NE | 21 | -0.502 | -0.524 | +0.022 | -10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.22 | -14.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 18 | -0.615 | -0.604 | -0.011 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.41 | -8.0 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | NYJ | 37 | -0.684 | -0.750 | +0.066 | -25.3 | 2 / 0 | -1.7 | 7 | -12.0 | -0.97 | -21.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.