Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI L | 0–27 | -14.0dog 13.0 | -0.80 → -0.76 | -0.08 → -0.02 | -0.74 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 27–0 | +14.0fav 13.0 | -0.08 → -0.15 | -0.80 → -0.78 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| SEA L | 3–37 | -28.0dog 6.0 | -0.45 → -0.39 | +0.19 → +0.14 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BAL W | 37–3 | +28.0fav 6.0 | +0.19 → +0.14 | -0.45 → -0.48 | +0.62 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| LA L | 3–20 | -13.5dog 3.5 | -0.45 → -0.49 | -0.01 → -0.07 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 49% | 2 / 2 |
| @ GB W | 20–3 | +13.5fav 3.5 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.45 → -0.48 | +0.45 | 99%raw 100% | 51% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| NYG L | 6–30 | -23.0dog 1.0 | -0.38 → -0.40 | +0.00 → +0.04 | -0.44 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 30–6 | +23.0fav 1.0 | +0.00 → -0.02 | -0.38 → -0.33 | +0.31 | 97%raw 99% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| BUF L | 18–24 | -4.5dog 1.5 | +0.02 → +0.00 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.16 | 14%raw 10% | 1% – 47% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 24–18 | +4.5fav 1.5 | +0.19 → +0.22 | +0.02 → -0.08 | +0.30 | 97%raw 90% | 53% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| MIA L | 14–21 | -6.0dog 1.0 | -0.13 → -0.10 | +0.02 → -0.06 | -0.04 | 40%raw 12% | 1% – 45% | 1 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 21–14 | +6.0fav 1.0 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.13 → -0.20 | +0.23 | 93%raw 88% | 55% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL L | 23–28 | -1.5dog 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.11 | +0.19 → +0.13 | -0.02 | 45%raw 31% | 3% – 64% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 28–23 | +1.5fav 3.5 | +0.19 → +0.25 | +0.14 → +0.07 | +0.19 | 89%raw 69% | 36% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| TB L | 37–39 | +0.5dog 2.5 | +0.15 → +0.17 | +0.33 → +0.37 | -0.21 | 9%raw 8% | 12% – 81% | 1 / 1 |
| @ HOU W | 39–37 | -0.5fav 2.5 | +0.33 → +0.33 | +0.15 → +0.15 | +0.19 | 89%raw 92% | 19% – 88% | 1 / 1 |
| LAC W | 27–6 | +18.0fav 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.06 | -0.37 → -0.24 | +0.18 | 88%raw 97% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYJ L | 6–27 | -18.0dog 3.0 | -0.37 → -0.41 | -0.12 → -0.10 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 0% – 65% | 3 / 0 |
| IND W | 27–13 | +12.5fav 1.5 | -0.10 → -0.13 | -0.30 → -0.22 | +0.09 | 72%raw 93% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 13–27 | -12.5dog 1.5 | -0.30 → -0.31 | -0.10 → -0.07 | -0.25 | 6%raw 7% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 0 |
| TEN L | 16–20 | -0.5dog 3.5 | -0.00 → -0.00 | +0.13 → +0.16 | -0.16 | 15%raw 15% | 3% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 20–16 | +0.5fav 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.11 | -0.00 → +0.03 | +0.08 | 72%raw 85% | 26% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| WAS W | 20–17 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.08 | -0.09 → +0.01 | +0.07 | 69%raw 85% | 20% – 95% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 17–20 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.09 → -0.14 | +0.04 → +0.10 | -0.25 | 6%raw 15% | 5% – 80% | 1 / 2 |
| MIN W | 31–28 | +6.5dog 3.5 | -0.05 → -0.06 | -0.12 → -0.08 | +0.02 | 57%raw 71% | 13% – 83% | 2 / 2 |
| @ ATL L | 28–31 | -6.5fav 3.5 | -0.12 → -0.13 | -0.05 → -0.04 | -0.09 | 26%raw 29% | 17% – 87% | 2 / 2 |
| CHI L | 17–24 | +2.0dog 9.0 | -0.10 → -0.05 | -0.06 → -0.06 | +0.01 | 54%raw 39% | 0% – 69% | 5 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 24–17 | -2.0fav 9.0 | -0.06 → -0.09 | -0.10 → -0.08 | -0.01 | 47%raw 61% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | TB | 45 | +0.601 | +0.614 | -0.013 | +27.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +1.26 | +13.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 26 | +0.363 | +0.324 | +0.039 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.26 | +14.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | HOU | 32 | +0.353 | +0.331 | +0.023 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.3 | +0.50 | +2.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BUF | 45 | +0.323 | +0.281 | +0.042 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.36 | +6.0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | NYG | 25 | +0.310 | +0.304 | +0.005 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -6.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 49 | +0.271 | +0.264 | +0.008 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.7 | +0.01 | +5.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | LA | 29 | +0.263 | +0.276 | -0.013 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.02 | +11.6 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | NE | 48 | +0.144 | +0.105 | +0.039 | +6.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.03 | +1.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | CIN | 40 | +0.105 | +0.116 | -0.011 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.08 | +12.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | KC | 37 | +0.073 | +0.014 | +0.059 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.27 | -1.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | TEN | 30 | +0.072 | +0.112 | -0.039 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -3.2 |
| Derek Carr | NO | CHI | 34 | +0.026 | +0.080 | -0.054 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +4.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | MIA | 32 | +0.018 | +0.043 | -0.025 | +0.6 | 0 / 1 | -3.8 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.04 | +0.3 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | CAR | 27 | -0.040 | -0.039 | -0.001 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.00 | +1.6 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ATL | MIN | 38 | -0.049 | -0.034 | -0.015 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.20 | -7.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | ARI | 30 | -0.052 | +0.033 | -0.085 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.09 | +0.5 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | NO | 32 | -0.057 | -0.115 | +0.058 | -1.8 | 3 / 1 | -16.9 | 2 | -5.5 | -0.04 | -2.3 |
| Will Levis | TEN | PIT | 42 | -0.097 | -0.084 | -0.013 | -4.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -5.3 | -0.36 | +0.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NYJ | 35 | -0.107 | -0.189 | +0.082 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.5 | -0.05 | -10.3 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | ATL | 34 | -0.151 | -0.115 | -0.036 | -5.1 | 0 / 2 | -12.9 | 3 | -13.0 | +0.09 | -0.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | SEA | 26 | -0.180 | -0.130 | -0.050 | -4.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 1 | -5.6 | -0.04 | +15.5 |
| Mac Jones | NE | WAS | 44 | -0.207 | -0.137 | -0.070 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.33 | -12.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | LAC | 57 | -0.357 | -0.336 | -0.022 | -20.4 | 0 / 2 | -13.5 | 8 | -23.3 | -0.34 | +0.4 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | BAL | 32 | -0.393 | -0.458 | +0.065 | -12.6 | 1 / 1 | -5.6 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.25 | -13.3 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | LV | 11 | -0.417 | -0.377 | -0.041 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.11 | -23.4 |
| Brett Rypien | LA | GB | 29 | -0.523 | -0.503 | -0.020 | -15.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.6 | 1 | -6.4 | -0.25 | -17.6 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | IND | 43 | -0.596 | -0.573 | -0.023 | -25.6 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.49 | -7.5 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | LV | 26 | -0.613 | -0.572 | -0.041 | -15.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 6 | -8.9 | -0.13 | +3.2 |
| Clayton Tune | ARI | CLE | 27 | -1.136 | -1.214 | +0.078 | -30.7 | 2 / 1 | -14.7 | 7 | -14.1 | -0.38 | -17.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.