Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS L | 10–45 | -22.0dog 13.0 | -0.23 → -0.18 | +0.45 → +0.38 | -0.57 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 45–10 | +22.0fav 13.0 | +0.45 → +0.41 | -0.23 → -0.17 | +0.58 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| GB W | 29–22 | +15.5dog 8.5 | +0.17 → +0.14 | -0.15 → -0.24 | +0.38 | 99%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ DET L | 22–29 | -15.5fav 8.5 | -0.15 → -0.19 | +0.17 → +0.11 | -0.30 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 0 |
| CHI W | 12–10 | +5.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.14 | -0.51 → -0.51 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 21% – 89% | 2 / 4 |
| @ MIN L | 10–12 | -5.0fav 3.0 | -0.51 → -0.55 | -0.12 → -0.10 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 11% – 79% | 4 / 2 |
| LA W | 37–14 | +20.0fav 3.0 | +0.33 → +0.27 | -0.14 → -0.10 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 14–37 | -20.0dog 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.17 | +0.33 → +0.33 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA W | 34–13 | +11.5fav 9.5 | +0.04 → +0.11 | -0.38 → -0.25 | +0.36 | 98%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| @ NYJ L | 13–34 | -11.5dog 9.5 | -0.38 → -0.39 | +0.04 → -0.02 | -0.37 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 3 |
| SF W | 31–13 | +11.0fav 7.0 | +0.11 → +0.06 | -0.26 → -0.29 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 13–31 | -11.0dog 7.0 | -0.26 → -0.22 | +0.11 → -0.02 | -0.20 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| BAL W | 20–10 | +7.0fav 3.0 | +0.03 → +0.00 | -0.30 → -0.29 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ LAC L | 10–20 | -7.0dog 3.0 | -0.30 → -0.24 | +0.03 → -0.03 | -0.22 | 8%raw 1% | 0% – 67% | 4 / 0 |
| CLE L | 12–29 | -15.5dog 1.5 | -0.27 → -0.29 | -0.03 → +0.01 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 0% – 43% | 3 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 29–12 | +15.5fav 1.5 | -0.03 → +0.05 | -0.27 → -0.22 | +0.26 | 95%raw 97% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| KC W | 31–17 | +5.0fav 9.0 | +0.26 → +0.27 | -0.03 → +0.01 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 15% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LV L | 17–31 | -5.0dog 9.0 | -0.03 → +0.01 | +0.26 → +0.19 | -0.18 | 11%raw 2% | 0% – 85% | 0 / 0 |
| PIT W | 16–10 | +4.0fav 2.0 | +0.08 → +0.06 | -0.16 → -0.19 | +0.25 | 94%raw 96% | 20% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CIN L | 10–16 | -4.0dog 2.0 | -0.16 → -0.16 | +0.08 → +0.11 | -0.27 | 5%raw 4% | 1% – 80% | 1 / 1 |
| BUF L | 34–37 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.14 | +0.04 → -0.03 | +0.18 | 88%raw 85% | 17% – 88% | 1 / 2 |
| @ PHI W | 37–34 | +0.5fav 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.07 | +0.17 → +0.07 | +0.00 | 51%raw 15% | 12% – 83% | 2 / 1 |
| TB L | 20–27 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.08 → +0.13 | -0.21 | 8%raw 10% | 1% – 62% | 2 / 1 |
| @ IND W | 27–20 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.08 → +0.08 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.17 | 87%raw 90% | 38% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| NO L | 15–24 | -11.0fav 2.0 | -0.04 → -0.05 | +0.05 → +0.09 | -0.14 | 17%raw 21% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 2 |
| @ ATL W | 24–15 | +11.0dog 2.0 | +0.05 → +0.11 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.15 | 84%raw 79% | 35% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| CAR L | 10–17 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.23 | 7%raw 8% | 1% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 17–10 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.14 → -0.05 | +0.07 | 69%raw 92% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| JAX W | 24–21 | +2.0fav 1.0 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.06 → +0.10 | -0.06 | 33%raw 38% | 43% – 96% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 21–24 | -2.0dog 1.0 | +0.06 → +0.06 | +0.02 → +0.04 | +0.02 | 56%raw 62% | 4% – 57% | 0 / 1 |
| NE L | 7–10 | -7.5fav 4.5 | -0.16 → -0.19 | -0.24 → -0.19 | -0.01 | 49%raw 74% | 4% – 62% | 3 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 10–7 | +7.5dog 4.5 | -0.24 → -0.21 | -0.16 → -0.07 | -0.14 | 17%raw 26% | 38% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 33 | +0.531 | +0.583 | -0.052 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | +8.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 32 | +0.346 | +0.399 | -0.053 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.46 | +5.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 39 | +0.342 | +0.320 | +0.022 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | -4.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 35 | +0.339 | +0.360 | -0.021 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.55 | +7.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | CIN | 35 | +0.330 | +0.336 | -0.006 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.43 | +9.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 33 | +0.322 | +0.400 | -0.078 | +10.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +12.8 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | CLE | 23 | +0.298 | +0.194 | +0.104 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.18 | -3.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 31 | +0.232 | +0.144 | +0.087 | +7.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.05 | +5.2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | KC | 34 | +0.189 | +0.127 | +0.061 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.28 | -2.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | PHI | 52 | +0.156 | +0.147 | +0.009 | +8.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.62 | -4.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | BUF | 33 | +0.039 | +0.003 | +0.037 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.20 | -4.9 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | 40 | +0.014 | +0.019 | -0.005 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | -0.16 | +3.6 |
| Will Levis | TEN | CAR | 28 | -0.019 | -0.016 | -0.003 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.01 | +2.7 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | NE | 31 | -0.026 | -0.059 | +0.032 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -7.7 | -0.21 | +0.5 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 31 | -0.028 | +0.024 | -0.052 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.09 | +8.1 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | TB | 43 | -0.030 | -0.002 | -0.027 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.15 | -12.5 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | DEN | 30 | -0.060 | -0.032 | -0.028 | -1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -11.4 |
| Derek Carr | NO | ATL | 39 | -0.071 | -0.033 | -0.038 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -11.5 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.06 | -1.4 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | NO | 21 | -0.075 | -0.131 | +0.056 | -1.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -4.0 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | PIT | 30 | -0.104 | -0.092 | -0.012 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.04 | +2.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 48 | -0.106 | -0.091 | -0.014 | -5.1 | 0 / 2 | -11.0 | 3 | -11.5 | -0.10 | +1.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | LAC | 34 | -0.121 | -0.105 | -0.016 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.10 | -12.7 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | MIN | 40 | -0.161 | -0.140 | -0.021 | -6.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 3 | -8.5 | +0.02 | +7.1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TEN | 35 | -0.182 | -0.139 | -0.043 | -6.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.18 | +2.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | BAL | 47 | -0.183 | -0.253 | +0.070 | -8.6 | 1 / 1 | -4.6 | 3 | -7.0 | -0.64 | -2.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | IND | 36 | -0.225 | -0.209 | -0.016 | -8.1 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 6 | -11.2 | -0.15 | -0.0 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | DAL | 48 | -0.232 | -0.257 | +0.026 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -9.5 | 4 | -8.4 | -0.06 | -6.0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | SF | 33 | -0.299 | -0.362 | +0.063 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 6 | -11.6 | -0.33 | +4.0 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 50 | -0.313 | -0.285 | -0.028 | -15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.23 | -7.6 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | NYG | 15 | -0.441 | -0.428 | -0.013 | -6.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.22 | -14.3 |
| Tim Boyle | NYJ | MIA | 45 | -0.451 | -0.415 | -0.036 | -20.3 | 2 / 0 | -11.6 | 7 | -11.4 | -0.44 | +0.7 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NYG | 22 | -0.464 | -0.451 | -0.013 | -10.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.25 | -13.1 |
| PJ Walker | CLE | DEN | 17 | -0.699 | -0.671 | -0.028 | -11.9 | 0 / 1 | -3.2 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.06 | -21.3 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | CHI | 34 | -0.772 | -0.700 | -0.073 | -26.3 | 4 / 0 | -15.3 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.57 | +2.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.