Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ L | 6–32 | -18.0dog 8.0 | -0.37 → -0.35 | +0.09 → -0.01 | -0.34 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 3 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 32–6 | +18.0fav 8.0 | +0.09 → +0.16 | -0.37 → -0.24 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| DAL W | 33–10 | +12.0fav 11.0 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.30 → -0.21 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CAR L | 10–33 | -12.0dog 11.0 | -0.30 → -0.25 | +0.18 → +0.11 | -0.37 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 0 |
| TB L | 14–27 | +0.5dog 13.5 | -0.12 → -0.07 | +0.21 → +0.08 | -0.15 | 15%raw 1% | 0% – 52% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 27–14 | -0.5fav 13.5 | +0.21 → +0.22 | -0.12 → -0.12 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 48% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| PHI W | 21–17 | +6.5dog 2.5 | -0.02 → +0.01 | -0.13 → -0.22 | +0.23 | 93%raw 82% | 11% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| @ KC L | 17–21 | -6.5fav 2.5 | -0.13 → -0.16 | -0.02 → -0.09 | -0.07 | 30%raw 18% | 2% – 89% | 2 / 1 |
| SEA L | 16–17 | +1.5dog 2.5 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.16 → -0.19 | +0.16 | 85%raw 89% | 10% – 90% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 17–16 | -1.5fav 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.22 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.19 | 10%raw 11% | 10% – 90% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN L | 20–34 | -10.0dog 4.0 | +0.05 → +0.12 | +0.17 → +0.12 | +0.00 | 50%raw 17% | 0% – 59% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 34–20 | +10.0fav 4.0 | +0.17 → +0.15 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.13 | 80%raw 83% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| TEN L | 14–34 | -13.5dog 6.5 | +0.04 → +0.04 | +0.19 → +0.22 | -0.18 | 12%raw 11% | 0% – 53% | 1 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 34–14 | +13.5fav 6.5 | +0.19 → +0.18 | +0.04 → +0.07 | +0.11 | 78%raw 89% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| LV L | 13–20 | +7.0dog 14.0 | -0.25 → -0.26 | -0.10 → -0.17 | -0.08 | 28%raw 11% | 1% – 56% | 3 / 3 |
| @ MIA W | 20–13 | -7.0fav 14.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.25 → -0.22 | +0.11 | 77%raw 89% | 44% – 99% | 3 / 3 |
| PIT L | 10–13 | -0.5dog 2.5 | -0.11 → -0.04 | -0.14 → -0.08 | +0.04 | 61%raw 60% | 9% – 60% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE W | 13–10 | +0.5fav 2.5 | -0.14 → -0.14 | -0.11 → -0.09 | -0.06 | 35%raw 40% | 40% – 91% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG W | 31–19 | +19.5dog 7.5 | -0.02 → -0.07 | -0.17 → -0.11 | +0.04 | 60%raw 88% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| @ WAS L | 19–31 | -19.5fav 7.5 | -0.17 → -0.20 | -0.02 → +0.04 | -0.24 | 6%raw 12% | 0% – 65% | 5 / 0 |
| LAC L | 20–23 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.04 | +0.09 → +0.03 | +0.01 | 53%raw 43% | 3% – 80% | 1 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 23–20 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.06 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.03 | 43%raw 57% | 20% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| CHI L | 26–31 | +3.0dog 8.0 | +0.02 → -0.02 | +0.06 → -0.02 | +0.01 | 52%raw 37% | 2% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| @ DET W | 31–26 | -3.0fav 8.0 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.02 → +0.04 | -0.01 | 48%raw 63% | 4% – 98% | 3 / 1 |
| ARI L | 16–21 | +0.5dog 5.5 | -0.04 → -0.03 | -0.05 → -0.02 | -0.02 | 46%raw 54% | 3% – 64% | 1 / 3 |
| @ HOU W | 21–16 | -0.5fav 5.5 | -0.05 → -0.13 | -0.04 → +0.00 | -0.13 | 19%raw 46% | 36% – 97% | 3 / 1 |
| MIN L | 20–21 | +1.5dog 2.5 | -0.02 → -0.03 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.05 | 36%raw 51% | 5% – 87% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 21–20 | -1.5fav 2.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.02 → -0.01 | -0.03 | 42%raw 49% | 13% – 95% | 0 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | TB | 29 | +0.533 | +0.547 | -0.014 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | +0.34 | +16.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 33 | +0.471 | +0.500 | -0.029 | +15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.16 | +15.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 33 | +0.457 | +0.364 | +0.094 | +15.1 | 1 / 0 | -0.1 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.08 | -3.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 29 | +0.277 | +0.284 | -0.008 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.25 | +7.0 |
| Jordan Love | GB | LAC | 43 | +0.243 | +0.250 | -0.007 | +10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.55 | +3.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 19 | +0.230 | +0.153 | +0.077 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.07 | -4.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | CAR | 38 | +0.203 | +0.201 | +0.002 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +1.2 |
| Will Levis | TEN | JAX | 19 | +0.154 | +0.156 | -0.002 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.2 | -0.15 | +9.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | GB | 38 | +0.129 | +0.133 | -0.004 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.17 | -3.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 35 | +0.126 | +0.147 | -0.021 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.28 | +0.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DET | 25 | +0.115 | +0.168 | -0.053 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.06 | +6.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | LV | 40 | +0.091 | +0.119 | -0.028 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.00 | +9.0 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | WAS | 35 | +0.045 | +0.109 | -0.064 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -11.8 | +0.11 | +3.5 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | MIN | 37 | +0.026 | +0.040 | -0.014 | +1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.29 | +14.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | DEN | 34 | +0.011 | +0.031 | -0.020 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.46 | +2.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | ARI | 40 | +0.009 | +0.095 | -0.086 | +0.4 | 3 / 0 | -16.4 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.09 | +6.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | KC | 27 | -0.071 | -0.126 | +0.056 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 5 | -5.5 | +0.05 | -4.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 38 | -0.086 | -0.029 | -0.057 | -3.3 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.36 | +0.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | SF | 49 | -0.122 | -0.188 | +0.066 | -6.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.16 | +2.4 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | NYG | 49 | -0.184 | -0.181 | -0.003 | -9.0 | 3 / 0 | -12.7 | 4 | -4.2 | -0.50 | +4.6 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | HOU | 33 | -0.195 | -0.207 | +0.012 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.41 | -0.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | PHI | 43 | -0.196 | -0.193 | -0.003 | -8.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.48 | -3.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 32 | -0.199 | -0.143 | -0.056 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.18 | -14.2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | PIT | 42 | -0.236 | -0.221 | -0.016 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.28 | -14.0 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | BAL | 17 | -0.239 | -0.316 | +0.077 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.11 | -5.9 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | MIA | 43 | -0.254 | -0.223 | -0.032 | -10.9 | 3 / 0 | -10.4 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.42 | -2.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | CLE | 31 | -0.289 | -0.384 | +0.094 | -9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.59 | -8.5 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | BUF | 21 | -0.381 | -0.408 | +0.026 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.19 | -17.7 |
| Tim Boyle | NYJ | BUF | 15 | -0.483 | -0.510 | +0.026 | -7.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.01 | -19.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DAL | 36 | -0.502 | -0.520 | +0.019 | -18.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.9 | 7 | -13.3 | -0.17 | -4.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.