Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA L | 19–56 | -34.0dog 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.08 | +0.61 → +0.57 | -0.65 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 3 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 56–19 | +34.0fav 3.0 | +0.61 → +0.63 | -0.14 → -0.21 | +0.84 | 100%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| GB W | 33–10 | +24.0dog 1.0 | +0.27 → +0.27 | -0.34 → -0.34 | +0.61 | 100%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ MIN L | 10–33 | -24.0fav 1.0 | -0.34 → -0.38 | +0.27 → +0.22 | -0.60 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 0 |
| CAR L | 0–26 | -22.5dog 3.5 | -0.46 → -0.47 | +0.11 → +0.12 | -0.59 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 54% | 1 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 26–0 | +22.5fav 3.5 | +0.11 → +0.09 | -0.46 → -0.38 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 46% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| TEN L | 3–26 | -18.0dog 5.0 | -0.43 → -0.43 | +0.00 → +0.04 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 26–3 | +18.0fav 5.0 | +0.00 → -0.02 | -0.43 → -0.41 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| SF W | 27–10 | +3.0fav 14.0 | +0.23 → +0.18 | -0.18 → -0.12 | +0.31 | 97%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ WAS L | 10–27 | -3.0dog 14.0 | -0.18 → -0.14 | +0.23 → +0.10 | -0.24 | 6%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| NO W | 23–13 | +12.5dog 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.15 → -0.16 | +0.23 | 93%raw 96% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ TB L | 13–23 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.15 → -0.10 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.18 | 11%raw 4% | 0% – 58% | 4 / 0 |
| ATL L | 17–37 | -17.0dog 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.13 → +0.16 | -0.25 | 6%raw 6% | 0% – 53% | 4 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 37–17 | +17.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.07 → -0.04 | +0.16 | 86%raw 94% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| NE L | 21–27 | +9.0dog 15.0 | -0.28 → -0.26 | -0.07 → -0.17 | -0.09 | 27%raw 5% | 1% – 68% | 4 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 27–21 | -9.0fav 15.0 | -0.07 → -0.03 | -0.28 → -0.19 | +0.16 | 86%raw 95% | 32% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| DET L | 19–20 | +4.5dog 5.5 | -0.03 → +0.02 | -0.04 → -0.12 | +0.14 | 82%raw 53% | 6% – 62% | 2 / 2 |
| @ DAL W | 20–19 | -4.5fav 5.5 | -0.04 → -0.08 | -0.03 → -0.12 | +0.04 | 60%raw 47% | 38% – 94% | 2 / 2 |
| PIT W | 30–23 | +11.5dog 4.5 | +0.28 → +0.24 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.13 | 81%raw 90% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 23–30 | -11.5fav 4.5 | +0.12 → +0.13 | +0.28 → +0.32 | -0.19 | 11%raw 10% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| CIN L | 17–25 | -0.5dog 7.5 | -0.08 → -0.04 | +0.05 → -0.03 | -0.01 | 47%raw 16% | 0% – 79% | 0 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 25–17 | +0.5fav 7.5 | +0.05 → +0.03 | -0.08 → -0.10 | +0.13 | 81%raw 84% | 21% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| ARI W | 35–31 | +16.0dog 12.0 | +0.26 → +0.24 | +0.23 → +0.17 | +0.07 | 69%raw 60% | 8% – 88% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 31–35 | -16.0fav 12.0 | +0.23 → +0.16 | +0.26 → +0.31 | -0.15 | 16%raw 40% | 12% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| LAC L | 9–16 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.16 | -0.05 → -0.01 | -0.15 | 16%raw 23% | 1% – 46% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 16–9 | +3.5fav 3.5 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.14 → -0.12 | +0.05 | 63%raw 77% | 54% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 20–37 | -10.5dog 6.5 | -0.18 → -0.11 | -0.06 → +0.01 | -0.11 | 22%raw 16% | 0% – 51% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CLE W | 37–20 | +10.5fav 6.5 | -0.06 → +0.00 | -0.18 → -0.04 | +0.05 | 63%raw 84% | 49% – 100% | 3 / 1 |
| LV L | 20–23 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.08 → +0.08 | +0.14 → +0.19 | -0.11 | 23%raw 30% | 3% – 48% | 0 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 23–20 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.14 | +0.08 → +0.12 | +0.02 | 55%raw 70% | 52% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| LA W | 26–25 | -5.0fav 6.0 | +0.02 → -0.00 | -0.05 → +0.01 | -0.01 | 47%raw 73% | 37% – 93% | 3 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 25–26 | +5.0dog 6.0 | -0.05 → -0.08 | +0.02 → -0.00 | -0.08 | 30%raw 27% | 7% – 63% | 1 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIA | 22 | +1.323 | +1.318 | +0.005 | +29.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.46 | +23.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | LV | 24 | +0.461 | +0.479 | -0.018 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.27 | +4.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | ARI | 23 | +0.428 | +0.502 | -0.074 | +9.8 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +17.7 |
| Jordan Love | GB | MIN | 33 | +0.421 | +0.425 | -0.003 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +6.7 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | SEA | 25 | +0.403 | +0.444 | -0.041 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.44 | +22.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | WAS | 28 | +0.388 | +0.445 | -0.057 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +13.2 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | NYJ | 30 | +0.297 | +0.207 | +0.090 | +8.9 | 1 / 0 | -9.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.08 | -0.6 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | PHI | 32 | +0.293 | +0.285 | +0.008 | +9.4 | 1 / 0 | -10.4 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.55 | +11.0 |
| Derek Carr | NO | TB | 33 | +0.259 | +0.280 | -0.021 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.26 | +4.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NO | 36 | +0.227 | +0.168 | +0.059 | +8.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.10 | -0.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | DET | 41 | +0.221 | +0.276 | -0.054 | +9.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.40 | +4.5 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | PIT | 34 | +0.207 | +0.212 | -0.005 | +7.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | +0.21 | +6.8 |
| C.J. Beathard | JAX | CAR | 27 | +0.196 | +0.192 | +0.004 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.05 | +8.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | IND | 49 | +0.166 | +0.173 | -0.007 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.03 | -1.3 |
| Jarrett Stidham | DEN | LAC | 34 | +0.128 | +0.138 | -0.010 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.18 | -1.9 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | ATL | 35 | +0.121 | +0.153 | -0.032 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.23 | +4.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | TEN | 33 | +0.084 | +0.124 | -0.040 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | +4.5 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | KC | 39 | +0.063 | +0.002 | +0.062 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.3 | -0.02 | -4.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BAL | 42 | +0.041 | -0.033 | +0.074 | +1.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.09 | -5.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NYG | 38 | +0.022 | +0.024 | -0.002 | +0.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 4 | -5.2 | +0.06 | +1.1 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | DEN | 38 | +0.011 | +0.032 | -0.021 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.11 | -3.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CIN | 31 | -0.014 | -0.001 | -0.013 | -0.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.0 | -0.01 | +6.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | DAL | 33 | -0.015 | -0.048 | +0.033 | -0.5 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.03 | -7.1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | LA | 47 | -0.081 | -0.059 | -0.021 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 6 | -8.0 | -0.41 | +1.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | HOU | 25 | -0.092 | -0.097 | +0.005 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.0 | +0.00 | +13.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 31 | -0.128 | -0.160 | +0.032 | -4.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.02 | -6.9 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | CLE | 47 | -0.131 | -0.226 | +0.096 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.12 | +1.3 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | GB | 23 | -0.203 | -0.182 | -0.021 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.03 | -6.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ATL | CHI | 31 | -0.262 | -0.204 | -0.058 | -8.1 | 3 / 0 | -8.8 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.14 | -26.5 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | SF | 29 | -0.270 | -0.332 | +0.062 | -7.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 1 | -2.9 | -0.07 | -1.0 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | BUF | 29 | -0.388 | -0.417 | +0.028 | -11.3 | 3 / 0 | -17.7 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.53 | +1.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | JAX | 38 | -0.587 | -0.565 | -0.022 | -22.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 6 | -11.7 | -0.32 | -4.3 |
| Jaren Hall | MIN | GB | 13 | -1.174 | -1.153 | -0.021 | -15.3 | 1 / 1 | -9.3 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.37 | -11.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.