Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU L | 6–30 | -27.5fav 3.5 | -0.53 → -0.48 | -0.01 → +0.13 | -0.61 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 30–6 | +27.5dog 3.5 | -0.01 → +0.00 | -0.53 → -0.50 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| DEN W | 24–7 | +20.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.47 → -0.47 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 7–24 | -20.0fav 3.0 | -0.47 → -0.50 | -0.05 → -0.01 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 1 |
| SEA L | 16–28 | +2.5dog 14.5 | -0.11 → -0.06 | +0.26 → +0.14 | -0.20 | 10%raw 1% | 0% – 68% | 2 / 2 |
| @ SF W | 28–16 | -2.5fav 14.5 | +0.26 → +0.22 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 32% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| PHI L | 13–33 | -16.5dog 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.13 | +0.04 → -0.04 | -0.10 | 26%raw 5% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 33–13 | +16.5fav 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.01 | -0.18 → -0.25 | +0.26 | 95%raw 95% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| DET L | 13–28 | -18.0fav 3.0 | -0.15 → -0.17 | +0.06 → +0.08 | -0.26 | 5%raw 6% | 0% – 67% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 28–13 | +18.0dog 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.02 | -0.15 → -0.24 | +0.26 | 95%raw 94% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| NE W | 21–18 | +9.0dog 6.0 | -0.06 → -0.06 | -0.33 → -0.31 | +0.25 | 94%raw 97% | 42% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PIT L | 18–21 | -9.0fav 6.0 | -0.33 → -0.30 | -0.06 → +0.04 | -0.34 | 2%raw 3% | 5% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| MIN W | 3–0 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.20 → -0.21 | -0.46 → -0.44 | +0.22 | 92%raw 97% | 31% – 94% | 0 / 3 |
| @ LV L | 0–3 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.46 → -0.49 | -0.20 → -0.20 | -0.30 | 4%raw 3% | 6% – 69% | 3 / 0 |
| BUF W | 20–17 | +5.0dog 2.0 | +0.02 → +0.05 | -0.06 → -0.14 | +0.19 | 90%raw 74% | 33% – 96% | 1 / 2 |
| @ KC L | 17–20 | -5.0fav 2.0 | -0.06 → -0.03 | +0.02 → -0.09 | +0.06 | 66%raw 26% | 4% – 67% | 2 / 1 |
| TEN W | 28–27 | +15.0dog 14.0 | +0.05 → +0.06 | -0.04 → -0.11 | +0.17 | 86%raw 77% | 2% – 91% | 2 / 1 |
| @ MIA L | 27–28 | -15.0fav 14.0 | -0.04 → -0.06 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.14 | 17%raw 23% | 9% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| IND L | 14–34 | -17.0dog 3.0 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.14 | 18%raw 14% | 0% – 46% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 34–14 | +17.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.10 | 74%raw 86% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| LA L | 31–37 | +1.5dog 7.5 | +0.12 → +0.19 | +0.16 → +0.11 | +0.08 | 71%raw 37% | 24% – 78% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 37–31 | -1.5fav 7.5 | +0.16 → +0.14 | +0.12 → +0.10 | +0.04 | 60%raw 63% | 22% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
| GB L | 22–24 | -8.0fav 6.0 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.01 → +0.07 | -0.12 | 20%raw 38% | 8% – 63% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 24–22 | +8.0dog 6.0 | +0.01 → -0.02 | -0.03 → -0.09 | +0.07 | 68%raw 62% | 37% – 92% | 1 / 2 |
| JAX L | 27–31 | -1.5dog 2.5 | -0.18 → -0.11 | -0.12 → -0.06 | -0.05 | 36%raw 31% | 3% – 45% | 4 / 3 |
| @ CLE W | 31–27 | +1.5fav 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.12 | -0.18 → -0.17 | +0.05 | 63%raw 69% | 55% – 97% | 3 / 4 |
| CAR L | 6–28 | -16.5dog 5.5 | -0.33 → -0.28 | -0.19 → -0.19 | -0.09 | 26%raw 14% | 0% – 49% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NO W | 28–6 | +16.5fav 5.5 | -0.19 → -0.22 | -0.33 → -0.25 | +0.03 | 57%raw 86% | 51% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| TB W | 29–25 | +5.5dog 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.03 → +0.00 | -0.04 | 38%raw 50% | 26% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 25–29 | -5.5fav 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.03 → -0.04 | +0.00 | 51%raw 50% | 13% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 30 | +0.384 | +0.425 | -0.041 | +11.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -4.0 | +0.22 | +6.3 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | IND | 24 | +0.326 | +0.332 | -0.007 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -8.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +3.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | LA | 46 | +0.261 | +0.274 | -0.014 | +12.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.59 | -1.7 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | GB | 21 | +0.242 | +0.247 | -0.005 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +15.6 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | HOU | 40 | +0.212 | +0.196 | +0.016 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.6 | +0.28 | +10.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | BAL | 44 | +0.206 | +0.127 | +0.079 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.22 | +0.3 |
| Will Levis | TEN | MIA | 40 | +0.200 | +0.219 | -0.019 | +8.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.43 | +3.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 28 | +0.128 | +0.091 | +0.037 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.07 | -0.8 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | LV | 13 | +0.093 | +0.129 | -0.036 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +5.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ATL | 30 | +0.044 | +0.082 | -0.038 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.29 | -17.8 |
| Drew Lock | SEA | SF | 36 | +0.035 | -0.033 | +0.068 | +1.3 | 2 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -7.1 | +0.09 | +0.8 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | PIT | 30 | +0.035 | +0.043 | -0.008 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.01 | +4.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 44 | +0.013 | -0.045 | +0.058 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.13 | -1.4 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | CIN | 43 | +0.001 | +0.014 | -0.013 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.02 | -2.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 42 | +0.000 | -0.001 | +0.001 | +0.0 | 0 / 1 | -8.4 | 3 | -11.0 | +0.03 | -9.8 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DET | 37 | -0.001 | +0.054 | -0.055 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.20 | -3.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | NYG | 41 | -0.008 | -0.005 | -0.002 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.23 | +1.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CLE | 55 | -0.033 | -0.132 | +0.099 | -1.8 | 3 / 0 | -8.7 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.34 | -2.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 44 | -0.034 | -0.068 | +0.034 | -1.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.42 | -3.6 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | JAX | 46 | -0.044 | -0.036 | -0.008 | -2.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 1 | -5.6 | +0.01 | -7.4 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LAC | 35 | -0.077 | -0.063 | -0.014 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.10 | -1.2 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | TB | 43 | -0.084 | -0.055 | -0.029 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.13 | -3.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 39 | -0.223 | -0.162 | -0.060 | -8.7 | 2 / 0 | -2.1 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.10 | -10.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | TEN | 38 | -0.242 | -0.196 | -0.046 | -9.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 5 | -12.2 | -0.46 | +2.1 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | DEN | 26 | -0.294 | -0.259 | -0.035 | -7.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 2 | -6.4 | -0.08 | -14.6 |
| Derek Carr | NO | CAR | 27 | -0.366 | -0.354 | -0.012 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -3.0 | -0.26 | +8.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | NE | 38 | -0.381 | -0.407 | +0.026 | -14.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.77 | -3.0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | LV | 28 | -0.529 | -0.493 | -0.036 | -14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.5 | -0.45 | -22.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | NYJ | 27 | -0.543 | -0.609 | +0.066 | -14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.42 | -20.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | MIN | 36 | -0.562 | -0.533 | -0.029 | -20.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -6.0 | -1.00 | -6.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NO | 40 | -0.743 | -0.782 | +0.040 | -29.7 | 0 / 1 | -6.6 | 4 | -12.4 | -0.59 | -21.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 21 | -0.966 | -0.931 | -0.035 | -20.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 4 | -8.5 | -0.47 | -12.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.