Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ L | 0–30 | -22.5dog 7.5 | -0.57 → -0.58 | +0.11 → +0.04 | -0.62 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 4 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 30–0 | +22.5fav 7.5 | +0.11 → +0.18 | -0.57 → -0.44 | +0.62 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| LAC L | 21–63 | -39.0dog 3.0 | -0.37 → -0.39 | +0.25 → +0.30 | -0.69 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 44% | 4 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 63–21 | +39.0fav 3.0 | +0.25 → +0.23 | -0.37 → -0.37 | +0.60 | 100%raw 100% | 56% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| DEN L | 17–42 | -19.5dog 5.5 | -0.13 → -0.17 | +0.33 → +0.26 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 42–17 | +19.5fav 5.5 | +0.33 → +0.33 | -0.13 → -0.09 | +0.42 | 99%raw 100% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| DAL L | 10–31 | -19.0dog 2.0 | -0.09 → -0.06 | +0.19 → +0.09 | -0.15 | 15%raw 2% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 31–10 | +19.0fav 2.0 | +0.19 → +0.24 | -0.09 → -0.17 | +0.42 | 99%raw 98% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| TB W | 34–20 | +18.0dog 4.0 | +0.36 → +0.34 | +0.03 → -0.03 | +0.37 | 98%raw 99% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ GB L | 20–34 | -18.0fav 4.0 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.36 → +0.37 | -0.34 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 68% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 13–30 | -15.5dog 1.5 | -0.32 → -0.33 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.43 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 82% | 3 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 30–13 | +15.5fav 1.5 | +0.05 → +0.06 | -0.32 → -0.30 | +0.36 | 98%raw 99% | 18% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| NYG L | 6–24 | -12.0dog 6.0 | -0.30 → -0.26 | +0.09 → +0.10 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 24–6 | +12.0fav 6.0 | +0.09 → +0.07 | -0.30 → -0.25 | +0.31 | 97%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| SF W | 45–29 | +3.5fav 12.5 | +0.43 → +0.37 | +0.02 → +0.06 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 29–45 | -3.5dog 12.5 | +0.02 → +0.07 | +0.43 → +0.30 | -0.24 | 7%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| BAL W | 23–7 | +12.0fav 4.0 | +0.03 → +0.03 | -0.23 → -0.22 | +0.25 | 94%raw 97% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 7–23 | -12.0dog 4.0 | -0.23 → -0.17 | +0.03 → -0.03 | -0.14 | 18%raw 3% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| KC W | 27–17 | +0.0fav 10.0 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.32 → -0.23 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 31% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 17–27 | +0.0dog 10.0 | -0.32 → -0.29 | -0.02 → -0.10 | -0.19 | 11%raw 2% | 0% – 69% | 1 / 2 |
| CHI L | 17–20 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.31 → -0.25 | -0.37 → -0.32 | +0.07 | 69%raw 69% | 11% – 90% | 2 / 3 |
| @ CLE W | 20–17 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.37 → -0.40 | -0.31 → -0.30 | -0.11 | 23%raw 31% | 10% – 89% | 3 / 2 |
| ATL L | 7–9 | -5.0fav 3.0 | -0.30 → -0.34 | -0.20 → -0.11 | -0.22 | 7%raw 19% | 18% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 9–7 | +5.0dog 3.0 | -0.20 → -0.21 | -0.30 → -0.27 | +0.07 | 68%raw 81% | 25% – 82% | 0 / 2 |
| PHI L | 17–20 | -8.0fav 5.0 | +0.11 → +0.06 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.02 | 57%raw 68% | 4% – 85% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 20–17 | +8.0dog 5.0 | +0.06 → +0.03 | +0.11 → +0.05 | -0.02 | 45%raw 32% | 15% – 96% | 0 / 2 |
| HOU W | 19–16 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.14 | -0.18 → -0.16 | +0.02 | 57%raw 73% | 9% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 16–19 | -6.0fav 3.0 | -0.18 → -0.18 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.10 | 24%raw 27% | 16% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| WAS L | 20–28 | -1.5dog 6.5 | -0.14 → -0.17 | -0.03 → -0.05 | -0.12 | 21%raw 18% | 0% – 49% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LA W | 28–20 | +1.5fav 6.5 | -0.03 → -0.08 | -0.14 → -0.08 | -0.00 | 50%raw 82% | 51% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| MIN L | 24–27 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.14 → +0.12 | +0.15 → +0.13 | -0.00 | 49%raw 48% | 3% – 93% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 27–24 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.15 → +0.14 | +0.14 → +0.16 | -0.02 | 45%raw 52% | 7% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | WAS | LA | 10 | +0.922 | +0.943 | -0.021 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +30.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | GB | 33 | +0.718 | +0.711 | +0.007 | +23.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 5 | -10.4 | +0.59 | +14.2 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | 24 | +0.689 | +0.760 | -0.070 | +16.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.41 | +7.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 27 | +0.433 | +0.342 | +0.091 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.06 | +13.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | DEN | 36 | +0.412 | +0.423 | -0.011 | +14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.7 | +0.14 | +8.1 |
| Derek Carr | NO | NYG | 29 | +0.349 | +0.343 | +0.006 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.29 | +11.9 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | CIN | 36 | +0.319 | +0.326 | -0.007 | +11.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.1 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.52 | +17.1 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | LAC | 35 | +0.299 | +0.304 | -0.005 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.04 | -7.3 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | MIN | 46 | +0.212 | +0.223 | -0.011 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -3.6 | +0.40 | +4.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | WAS | 36 | +0.157 | +0.219 | -0.062 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.07 | +6.3 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | CAR | 20 | +0.156 | +0.156 | +0.000 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.05 | -2.9 |
| Drew Lock | SEA | PHI | 35 | +0.097 | +0.093 | +0.004 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.43 | -1.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | NE | 40 | +0.090 | +0.053 | +0.037 | +3.6 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 3 | -5.7 | +0.34 | +10.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | TB | 41 | +0.070 | +0.096 | -0.026 | +2.9 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 2 | -5.1 | +0.10 | +11.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | SEA | 31 | +0.007 | +0.055 | -0.048 | +0.2 | 2 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.11 | -8.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | DAL | 16 | +0.004 | -0.029 | +0.032 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.02 | -10.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | PIT | 31 | -0.034 | -0.022 | -0.012 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.17 | -2.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SF | 43 | -0.104 | -0.171 | +0.067 | -4.5 | 2 / 0 | -12.7 | 3 | -2.4 | -0.23 | -1.0 |
| Case Keenum | HOU | TEN | 39 | -0.109 | -0.065 | -0.044 | -4.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.03 | +0.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | IND | 26 | -0.111 | -0.092 | -0.018 | -2.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | DET | 34 | -0.133 | -0.070 | -0.063 | -4.5 | 0 / 1 | -8.3 | 2 | -9.9 | -0.23 | -9.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | JAX | 27 | -0.140 | -0.132 | -0.008 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.01 | +3.2 |
| Will Levis | TEN | HOU | 33 | -0.162 | -0.174 | +0.012 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 7 | -9.7 | -0.42 | +7.9 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ATL | 27 | -0.185 | -0.144 | -0.041 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.03 | +13.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BAL | 44 | -0.206 | -0.276 | +0.070 | -9.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 1 | -4.6 | +0.04 | -4.5 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | CLE | 43 | -0.265 | -0.360 | +0.095 | -11.4 | 2 / 0 | -1.2 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.53 | -7.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | BUF | 37 | -0.305 | -0.336 | +0.031 | -11.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 3 | -6.5 | -0.18 | -4.1 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | NO | 41 | -0.310 | -0.357 | +0.047 | -12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -11.5 | -0.32 | -9.2 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | KC | 35 | -0.318 | -0.369 | +0.051 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 4 | -5.7 | -0.03 | +1.5 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | LV | 35 | -0.330 | -0.295 | -0.035 | -11.5 | 1 / 2 | -22.4 | 3 | -17.7 | -0.13 | +2.0 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | MIA | 28 | -0.376 | -0.336 | -0.040 | -10.5 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.01 | -9.0 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | CHI | 48 | -0.426 | -0.362 | -0.064 | -20.5 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.25 | -2.1 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | LA | 27 | -0.487 | -0.466 | -0.021 | -13.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.24 | -22.6 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | MIA | 15 | -0.963 | -0.924 | -0.040 | -14.5 | 0 / 1 | -7.1 | 4 | -11.5 | -0.29 | -10.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.