Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL W | 28–3 | +23.0fav 2.0 | +0.03 → +0.11 | -0.51 → -0.47 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CLE L | 3–28 | -23.0dog 2.0 | -0.51 → -0.46 | +0.03 → -0.02 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 3 / 1 |
| NE L | 3–38 | -28.5dog 6.5 | -0.48 → -0.44 | +0.10 → +0.03 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 54% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 38–3 | +28.5fav 6.5 | +0.10 → +0.14 | -0.48 → -0.39 | +0.53 | 100%raw 100% | 46% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIA L | 20–48 | -25.5dog 2.5 | +0.00 → +0.04 | +0.44 → +0.35 | -0.31 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 48–20 | +25.5fav 2.5 | +0.44 → +0.46 | +0.00 → -0.06 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| TB W | 26–9 | +21.0dog 4.0 | +0.07 → +0.12 | -0.37 → -0.37 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ NO L | 9–26 | -21.0fav 4.0 | -0.37 → -0.38 | +0.07 → +0.06 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 3 / 1 |
| CIN L | 3–27 | -26.5fav 2.5 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.20 → +0.24 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 27–3 | +26.5dog 2.5 | +0.20 → +0.19 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.45 | 99%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 6–30 | -27.0fav 3.0 | -0.28 → -0.28 | +0.14 → +0.18 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 30–6 | +27.0dog 3.0 | +0.14 → +0.15 | -0.28 → -0.27 | +0.41 | 99%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| DET W | 34–20 | +11.5fav 2.5 | +0.14 → +0.11 | -0.23 → -0.30 | +0.41 | 99%raw 99% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ GB L | 20–34 | -11.5dog 2.5 | -0.23 → -0.27 | +0.14 → +0.06 | -0.33 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| ATL L | 7–23 | -12.5dog 3.5 | -0.30 → -0.31 | +0.01 → +0.02 | -0.33 | 2%raw 2% | 0% – 51% | 3 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 23–7 | +12.5fav 3.5 | +0.01 → +0.00 | -0.30 → -0.27 | +0.27 | 96%raw 98% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| SEA W | 24–3 | +18.5fav 2.5 | -0.11 → -0.14 | -0.45 → -0.40 | +0.26 | 95%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYG L | 3–24 | -18.5dog 2.5 | -0.45 → -0.52 | -0.11 → -0.14 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 0 |
| ARI L | 16–35 | -4.0dog 15.0 | +0.14 → +0.19 | +0.50 → +0.38 | -0.19 | 11%raw 1% | 0% – 43% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 35–16 | +4.0fav 15.0 | +0.50 → +0.44 | +0.14 → +0.19 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| DEN W | 31–28 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.35 → +0.34 | +0.10 → +0.12 | +0.21 | 92%raw 97% | 2% – 95% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 28–31 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.35 → +0.40 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 5% – 98% | 2 / 0 |
| LA W | 29–23 | +5.0fav 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.18 | -0.01 → +0.03 | +0.15 | 84%raw 93% | 31% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ IND L | 23–29 | -5.0dog 1.0 | -0.01 → -0.04 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.20 | 10%raw 7% | 1% – 69% | 1 / 1 |
| KC W | 23–20 | -6.5fav 9.5 | +0.17 → +0.24 | +0.00 → +0.14 | +0.09 | 74%raw 91% | 36% – 98% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 20–23 | +6.5dog 9.5 | +0.00 → +0.04 | +0.17 → +0.09 | -0.06 | 35%raw 9% | 2% – 64% | 1 / 2 |
| LV L | 17–24 | +0.0dog 7.0 | -0.17 → -0.20 | -0.03 → -0.02 | -0.18 | 11%raw 14% | 1% – 48% | 3 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 24–17 | +0.0fav 7.0 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.17 → -0.13 | +0.09 | 73%raw 86% | 52% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| WAS L | 31–34 | +6.5dog 9.5 | +0.20 → +0.18 | +0.16 → +0.10 | +0.08 | 71%raw 63% | 6% – 83% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 34–31 | -6.5fav 9.5 | +0.16 → +0.12 | +0.20 → +0.28 | -0.16 | 15%raw 37% | 17% – 94% | 0 / 0 |
| MIN W | 21–13 | +3.5fav 4.5 | -0.15 → -0.18 | -0.26 → -0.17 | -0.01 | 47%raw 80% | 12% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 13–21 | -3.5dog 4.5 | -0.26 → -0.28 | -0.15 → -0.15 | -0.13 | 19%raw 20% | 1% – 88% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | 22 | +0.977 | +1.038 | -0.061 | +21.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.34 | +27.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 27 | +0.814 | +0.822 | -0.008 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.43 | +19.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | CHI | 29 | +0.446 | +0.490 | -0.044 | +12.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.33 | +13.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 22 | +0.420 | +0.312 | +0.107 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.04 | +19.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | PIT | 28 | +0.345 | +0.344 | +0.001 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -4.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NO | 34 | +0.294 | +0.232 | +0.061 | +10.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.25 | +15.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | IND | 42 | +0.268 | +0.271 | -0.003 | +11.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.30 | +1.6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | CIN | 28 | +0.251 | +0.256 | -0.005 | +7.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.11 | +10.9 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | LA | 29 | +0.235 | +0.249 | -0.014 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.32 | -16.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 40 | +0.204 | +0.264 | -0.060 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.0 | +0.43 | +10.5 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | PHI | 46 | +0.174 | +0.168 | +0.006 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.9 | +0.27 | +10.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DEN | 39 | +0.167 | +0.183 | -0.016 | +6.5 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 4 | -13.1 | -0.23 | +21.1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | SF | 42 | +0.167 | +0.093 | +0.074 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.07 | +5.3 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | KC | 41 | +0.149 | +0.088 | +0.061 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.18 | +8.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NE | 37 | +0.145 | +0.106 | +0.039 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.7 | +0.26 | +12.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | NYJ | 31 | +0.111 | +0.020 | +0.091 | +3.5 | 2 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.02 | -4.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | ATL | 32 | +0.104 | +0.138 | -0.033 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.12 | +6.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 30 | +0.075 | +0.082 | -0.007 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.13 | +3.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 40 | -0.078 | -0.111 | +0.033 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 4 | -9.4 | +0.09 | +6.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 26 | -0.170 | -0.141 | -0.028 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.01 | -7.3 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | LAC | 46 | -0.275 | -0.256 | -0.020 | -12.7 | 1 / 2 | -17.2 | 7 | -19.8 | -0.37 | -8.1 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | DAL | 10 | -0.281 | -0.300 | +0.019 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.00 | -12.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TEN | 33 | -0.317 | -0.267 | -0.050 | -10.5 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 3 | -10.0 | -0.12 | +6.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 42 | -0.344 | -0.277 | -0.067 | -14.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 5 | -6.1 | -0.22 | +3.4 |
| Derek Carr | NO | TB | 39 | -0.364 | -0.327 | -0.037 | -14.2 | 0 / 1 | -3.2 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.35 | -8.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | MIN | 37 | -0.375 | -0.352 | -0.023 | -13.9 | 0 / 1 | -10.3 | 5 | -19.5 | -0.44 | +5.1 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NYG | 22 | -0.422 | -0.415 | -0.008 | -9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.06 | -2.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | HOU | 26 | -0.520 | -0.524 | +0.005 | -13.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -6.8 | -0.25 | +2.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CAR | 21 | -0.534 | -0.518 | -0.016 | -11.2 | 2 / 0 | -16.4 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.33 | +2.8 |
| Mac Jones | NE | DAL | 22 | -0.565 | -0.584 | +0.019 | -12.4 | 2 / 1 | -18.5 | 1 | -5.8 | -0.08 | -16.7 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | JAX | 35 | -0.572 | -0.552 | -0.021 | -20.0 | 2 / 1 | -19.0 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.29 | -1.6 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | BAL | 40 | -0.623 | -0.684 | +0.061 | -24.9 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.41 | -9.8 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | SEA | 44 | -0.724 | -0.659 | -0.065 | -31.9 | 2 / 1 | -23.7 | 10 | -19.4 | -0.45 | +8.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.