Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL L | 10–42 | -28.5dog 3.5 | -0.45 → -0.41 | +0.20 → +0.07 | -0.48 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 4 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 42–10 | +28.5fav 3.5 | +0.20 → +0.26 | -0.45 → -0.54 | +0.79 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| NO W | 34–0 | +36.5dog 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.06 | -0.78 → -0.71 | +0.77 | 100%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NE L | 0–34 | -36.5fav 2.5 | -0.78 → -0.75 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.78 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 0 |
| BAL L | 10–17 | -11.5fav 4.5 | -0.23 → -0.23 | -0.01 → +0.01 | -0.24 | 6%raw 5% | 1% – 85% | 3 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 17–10 | +11.5dog 4.5 | -0.01 → +0.05 | -0.23 → -0.29 | +0.34 | 98%raw 95% | 15% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| CHI W | 40–20 | +26.0dog 6.0 | +0.31 → +0.27 | -0.11 → -0.05 | +0.31 | 97%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ WAS L | 20–40 | -26.0fav 6.0 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.31 → +0.34 | -0.48 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 0 |
| CAR L | 24–42 | -8.5dog 9.5 | -0.08 → -0.12 | +0.25 → +0.18 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 49% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 42–24 | +8.5fav 9.5 | +0.25 → +0.24 | -0.08 → +0.01 | +0.23 | 93%raw 99% | 51% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| NYJ W | 31–21 | +12.5dog 2.5 | +0.00 → -0.01 | -0.24 → -0.21 | +0.20 | 90%raw 97% | 21% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 21–31 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.24 → -0.19 | +0.00 → +0.14 | -0.33 | 2%raw 3% | 1% – 79% | 2 / 1 |
| CIN W | 34–20 | +11.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → -0.07 | -0.29 → -0.26 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 31% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ ARI L | 20–34 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.29 → -0.33 | +0.01 → -0.02 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 69% | 3 / 1 |
| NYG L | 16–31 | -2.5dog 12.5 | -0.16 → -0.16 | +0.10 → +0.03 | -0.20 | 10%raw 3% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 3 |
| @ MIA W | 31–16 | +2.5fav 12.5 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.16 → -0.11 | +0.18 | 89%raw 97% | 54% – 100% | 3 / 0 |
| PHI W | 23–14 | +5.5fav 3.5 | +0.15 → +0.13 | -0.00 → -0.02 | +0.15 | 85%raw 89% | 30% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LA L | 14–23 | -5.5dog 3.5 | -0.00 → -0.03 | +0.15 → +0.09 | -0.11 | 22%raw 11% | 0% – 70% | 0 / 1 |
| KC W | 27–20 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.17 | +0.00 → +0.01 | +0.15 | 84%raw 91% | 39% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIN L | 20–27 | -3.5dog 3.5 | +0.00 → +0.03 | +0.17 → +0.10 | -0.06 | 34%raw 9% | 2% – 61% | 1 / 0 |
| GB L | 13–17 | -3.0dog 1.0 | -0.19 → -0.20 | -0.08 → -0.04 | -0.16 | 15%raw 19% | 3% – 65% | 3 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 17–13 | +3.0fav 1.0 | -0.08 → -0.11 | -0.19 → -0.26 | +0.14 | 83%raw 81% | 35% – 97% | 1 / 3 |
| JAX W | 25–20 | +10.5dog 5.5 | +0.12 → +0.16 | +0.21 → +0.11 | +0.05 | 63%raw 23% | 39% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BUF L | 20–25 | -10.5fav 5.5 | +0.21 → +0.22 | +0.12 → +0.14 | +0.08 | 70%raw 77% | 1% – 61% | 2 / 2 |
| TEN L | 16–23 | -9.5fav 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.10 | +0.21 → +0.26 | -0.15 | 15%raw 19% | 1% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 23–16 | +9.5dog 2.5 | +0.21 → +0.19 | +0.10 → +0.13 | +0.06 | 66%raw 81% | 37% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU L | 19–21 | +0.5dog 2.5 | -0.07 → -0.07 | -0.02 → +0.01 | -0.09 | 28%raw 36% | 13% – 70% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ATL W | 21–19 | -0.5fav 2.5 | -0.02 → -0.02 | -0.07 → -0.03 | +0.02 | 54%raw 64% | 30% – 87% | 2 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | DAL | 25 | +0.789 | +0.742 | +0.047 | +19.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.27 | +5.8 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | TEN | 14 | +0.494 | +0.529 | -0.035 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | +11.9 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | HOU | 38 | +0.424 | +0.399 | +0.024 | +16.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.65 | +7.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | MIN | 42 | +0.345 | +0.352 | -0.006 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.55 | +10.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | JAX | 41 | +0.343 | +0.341 | +0.002 | +14.1 | 1 / 0 | +0.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +13.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | WAS | 32 | +0.303 | +0.360 | -0.057 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.0 | +0.26 | +1.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 34 | +0.273 | +0.278 | -0.005 | +9.3 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 1 | -0.3 | +0.39 | +2.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BUF | 42 | +0.238 | +0.199 | +0.039 | +10.0 | 0 / 2 | -7.5 | 5 | -11.6 | +0.34 | +2.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CAR | 30 | +0.195 | +0.192 | +0.002 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.08 | +3.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LA | 39 | +0.186 | +0.200 | -0.014 | +7.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.27 | +3.9 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | BAL | 36 | +0.164 | +0.086 | +0.078 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.6 | +0.24 | -6.0 |
| Derek Carr | NO | NE | 28 | +0.162 | +0.123 | +0.039 | +4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.00 | +10.2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | MIA | 13 | +0.162 | +0.188 | -0.026 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.01 | +11.6 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | TEN | 13 | +0.130 | +0.164 | -0.035 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.02 | +14.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | KC | 49 | +0.114 | +0.054 | +0.060 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.05 | -3.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | ARI | 49 | +0.112 | +0.194 | -0.082 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.45 | +9.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | ATL | 35 | +0.058 | +0.094 | -0.036 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | -7.7 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | CHI | 57 | -0.008 | +0.048 | -0.055 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 5 | -6.1 | -0.06 | +11.7 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | GB | 33 | -0.024 | -0.013 | -0.011 | -0.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -7.2 | +0.19 | +0.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DET | 42 | -0.061 | -0.000 | -0.061 | -2.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.06 | +2.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | PHI | 41 | -0.062 | -0.062 | -0.000 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.01 | -7.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYG | 30 | -0.072 | -0.068 | -0.004 | -2.1 | 2 / 0 | -16.4 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.09 | +9.3 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | MIA | 26 | -0.203 | -0.177 | -0.026 | -5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -7.3 | -0.07 | +6.6 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | NYJ | 34 | -0.225 | -0.307 | +0.081 | -7.7 | 0 / 1 | -7.9 | 4 | -12.8 | -0.46 | +3.8 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | DEN | 30 | -0.266 | -0.239 | -0.027 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.25 | +7.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 42 | -0.333 | -0.315 | -0.018 | -14.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.7 | 4 | -10.4 | -0.56 | -3.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | SF | 27 | -0.392 | -0.451 | +0.059 | -10.6 | 3 / 0 | -14.1 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.04 | -4.0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | ARI | CIN | 35 | -0.472 | -0.447 | -0.025 | -16.5 | 2 / 1 | -14.8 | 3 | -9.2 | -0.36 | -14.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | LV | 32 | -0.500 | -0.461 | -0.039 | -16.0 | 3 / 0 | -13.6 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.55 | -16.0 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NO | 24 | -0.743 | -0.778 | +0.035 | -17.8 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.30 | -12.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.