Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL W | 33–19 | +20.5dog 6.5 | +0.06 → +0.11 | -0.23 → -0.37 | +0.48 | 100%raw 98% | 23% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| @ SF L | 19–33 | -20.5fav 6.5 | -0.23 → -0.17 | +0.06 → +0.01 | -0.18 | 12%raw 2% | 0% – 77% | 5 / 0 |
| CIN L | 11–34 | -26.0fav 3.0 | -0.23 → -0.23 | +0.22 → +0.25 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 34–11 | +26.0dog 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| CLE W | 36–22 | +11.0fav 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.27 → -0.24 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 22–36 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.27 → -0.20 | +0.10 → +0.17 | -0.37 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 2 |
| IND L | 10–29 | -16.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.25 | +0.13 → +0.17 | -0.43 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ATL W | 29–10 | +16.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.24 → -0.21 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NO L | 22–30 | -4.0dog 4.0 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.21 → +0.20 | -0.29 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 53% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 30–22 | +4.0fav 4.0 | +0.21 → +0.27 | -0.07 → -0.07 | +0.34 | 98%raw 98% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| JAX L | 12–30 | -20.0fav 2.0 | -0.18 → -0.19 | +0.05 → +0.05 | -0.24 | 7%raw 4% | 0% – 50% | 4 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 30–12 | +20.0dog 2.0 | +0.05 → +0.06 | -0.18 → -0.17 | +0.22 | 93%raw 96% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| LV W | 20–14 | +17.0dog 11.0 | -0.19 → -0.16 | -0.25 → -0.34 | +0.18 | 88%raw 70% | 35% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ KC L | 14–20 | -17.0fav 11.0 | -0.25 → -0.26 | -0.19 → -0.15 | -0.11 | 23%raw 30% | 1% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| ARI L | 16–27 | -6.5dog 4.5 | -0.14 → -0.17 | +0.12 → +0.14 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 1% – 49% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CHI W | 27–16 | +6.5fav 4.5 | +0.12 → +0.05 | -0.14 → -0.10 | +0.15 | 84%raw 97% | 51% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG L | 25–33 | +6.0dog 14.0 | -0.08 → -0.11 | +0.13 → +0.07 | -0.18 | 12%raw 5% | 3% – 43% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 33–25 | -6.0fav 14.0 | +0.13 → +0.11 | -0.08 → -0.02 | +0.13 | 82%raw 95% | 57% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| DET W | 30–24 | +3.5fav 2.5 | +0.18 → +0.17 | +0.03 → +0.05 | +0.13 | 81%raw 88% | 33% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| @ MIN L | 24–30 | -3.5dog 2.5 | +0.03 → -0.00 | +0.18 → +0.10 | -0.10 | 24%raw 12% | 1% – 67% | 4 / 1 |
| BUF W | 24–22 | -11.0fav 13.0 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.09 → -0.08 | +0.12 | 80%raw 90% | 15% – 85% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LAC L | 22–24 | +11.0dog 13.0 | -0.09 → -0.07 | +0.07 → -0.03 | -0.03 | 41%raw 10% | 15% – 85% | 0 / 2 |
| DAL L | 20–22 | -0.5dog 1.5 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.04 → -0.03 | +0.10 | 75%raw 58% | 13% – 61% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 22–20 | +0.5fav 1.5 | +0.04 → +0.09 | +0.06 → -0.01 | +0.10 | 76%raw 42% | 39% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| NE W | 26–23 | +10.0dog 7.0 | -0.08 → -0.09 | -0.13 → -0.09 | +0.00 | 50%raw 67% | 20% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DEN L | 23–26 | -10.0fav 7.0 | -0.13 → -0.09 | -0.08 → +0.02 | -0.12 | 22%raw 33% | 2% – 80% | 1 / 1 |
| SEA W | 20–17 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.11 | +0.09 → +0.13 | -0.01 | 47%raw 62% | 20% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 17–20 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.04 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.07 | 31%raw 38% | 13% – 80% | 0 / 0 |
| WAS L | 28–30 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.18 → -0.12 | -0.24 → -0.11 | -0.02 | 45%raw 69% | 1% – 74% | 2 / 2 |
| @ NYJ W | 30–28 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.30 | -0.18 → -0.12 | -0.18 | 12%raw 31% | 26% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| GB W | 33–30 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.26 → +0.25 | +0.17 → +0.27 | -0.02 | 45%raw 78% | 44% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CAR L | 30–33 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.14 | +0.26 → +0.21 | -0.06 | 33%raw 22% | 3% – 56% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | WAS | NYJ | 13 | +0.609 | +0.534 | +0.074 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +9.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NO | 35 | +0.495 | +0.430 | +0.066 | +17.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.22 | +7.6 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | HOU | 43 | +0.489 | +0.467 | +0.022 | +21.0 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +5.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LAC | 22 | +0.454 | +0.456 | -0.003 | +10.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.45 | +8.0 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CAR | 29 | +0.397 | +0.389 | +0.008 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.52 | -0.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | JAX | 37 | +0.351 | +0.350 | +0.001 | +13.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.18 | +7.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 41 | +0.342 | +0.348 | -0.006 | +14.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.57 | +1.6 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | GB | 37 | +0.329 | +0.330 | -0.002 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.50 | +9.5 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | CIN | 28 | +0.293 | +0.298 | -0.005 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.21 | +4.5 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | TEN | 39 | +0.248 | +0.283 | -0.035 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.47 | +4.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | DAL | 38 | +0.228 | +0.192 | +0.036 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.38 | +1.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ATL | IND | 33 | +0.228 | +0.233 | -0.006 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.27 | -0.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | MIA | 36 | +0.214 | +0.234 | -0.020 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.4 | +0.22 | -1.8 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | CLE | 32 | +0.210 | +0.114 | +0.096 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -18.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | SF | 37 | +0.207 | +0.133 | +0.074 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.04 | -1.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 39 | +0.191 | +0.189 | +0.002 | +7.5 | 1 / 0 | -10.2 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.13 | -3.8 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | DET | 39 | +0.095 | +0.153 | -0.058 | +3.7 | 4 / 0 | -9.3 | 4 | -7.4 | +0.28 | +6.2 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | DEN | 34 | +0.066 | +0.086 | -0.020 | +2.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.5 | 2 | -8.0 | +0.50 | +13.4 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | NE | 43 | +0.053 | +0.017 | +0.036 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.15 | +6.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | PHI | 14 | +0.048 | +0.049 | -0.001 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | -0.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SF | BAL | 16 | +0.027 | -0.040 | +0.067 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.03 | -2.7 |
| Derek Carr | NO | LA | 43 | +0.021 | +0.041 | -0.020 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.9 | -0.07 | -3.0 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | BUF | 38 | +0.005 | -0.029 | +0.034 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.35 | +1.1 |
| C.J. Beathard | JAX | TB | 17 | -0.076 | -0.047 | -0.029 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.01 | +7.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | SEA | 31 | -0.133 | -0.083 | -0.050 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -5.4 | -0.18 | +3.3 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | PIT | 46 | -0.179 | -0.165 | -0.014 | -8.2 | 3 / 0 | -12.9 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.11 | -0.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TB | 33 | -0.206 | -0.177 | -0.029 | -6.8 | 2 / 1 | -12.8 | 3 | -7.9 | -0.04 | -4.8 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | ARI | 28 | -0.217 | -0.129 | -0.087 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.01 | +2.1 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CHI | 40 | -0.226 | -0.165 | -0.061 | -9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.24 | -5.7 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | ATL | 43 | -0.231 | -0.188 | -0.043 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 6 | -8.5 | -0.10 | -9.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 48 | -0.329 | -0.299 | -0.030 | -15.8 | 1 / 0 | -7.6 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.43 | -1.3 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | PHI | 17 | -0.393 | -0.392 | -0.001 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.11 | -9.2 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | WAS | 49 | -0.400 | -0.326 | -0.074 | -19.6 | 1 / 0 | -9.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.31 | -12.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | BAL | 34 | -0.464 | -0.531 | +0.067 | -15.8 | 4 / 0 | -22.5 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.49 | -10.0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | KC | 23 | -0.517 | -0.564 | +0.046 | -11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.26 | -16.4 |
| Case Keenum | HOU | CLE | 20 | -0.809 | -0.906 | +0.096 | -16.2 | 2 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.27 | -9.6 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | NYJ | 23 | -0.947 | -1.021 | +0.074 | -21.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.25 | -42.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.